The battle situation is stalemate and the pressure is great
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine started in February 2022 and has been dragged on for more than three years. Russia obviously shows signs of being unable to withstand it. At first, Russia advanced fiercely and occupied part of Crimea and several eastern states. However, Ukraine withstood it with NATO's assistance and counterattacked again and again.
Western sanctions increased, Russian energy exports were heavily affected, the ruble exchange rate was unstable, and military-industrial production cards were on the technology bottleneck. Data showed that Russia's GDP in 2024 grew by 4.1%, but inflation rate was up to 9.5%, and people spent their days tightly.
Military spending accounts for the bulk, investment in people's livelihood has shrunk, and education and infrastructure have been dragged down. Polls show that only 27% of Russians still support continuing the fight, and 66% look forward to peace talks. This pressure is no joke, and internal conflicts have also emerged. Although Wagner's brief rebellion in 2023 was quickly suppressed, it exposed the differences among the elite over the goals of the war.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, at a Turkish press conference in February 2025, publicly listed the conditions of the ceasefire: Ukrainian army surrendered, cut five states, never joined NATO, and had to be Nazis.This sounds like a strong gesture, in fact through fatigue.
On the battlefield, Ukraine launched a counter-attack with NATO weapons, Russia fell into a consumption war, the supply line stretched, and the losses were not small. Economically, the West embargoed energy, Russia had to turn to the Asian market, but the prices were reduced, and revenue fell sharply.
The Russian government has always been hard-mouthed, but the reality forces them to find a hole to catch their breath. Lavrov's statement came out against this background. On the surface, it was seeking peace, but in fact it was to buy time, regroup and avoid further outbreak of domestic social contradictions.
China has always remained neutral and insisted on solving problems through dialogue and negotiation. This position is quite stable, and it is not involved in the direct confrontation between the West and Russia. Why doesn't Russia turn to China? To put it bluntly, there is a historical burden at work.
Russia, which considers itself the heir of European civilization, always feels a bit superior to Asian nations, and even if the Chinese economy is now ten times larger than Russia, they are reluctant to head down.
More importantly, in the triangular relationship between China, the United States and Russia, Russia wants to shine some light on both sides and use China to balance Western pressure, but it is afraid of over-dependence and losing room for manoeuvre. This mentality is quite typical. Russia would rather compromise with the United States than completely turn to China for fear of losing its strategic autonomy. Of course, China sees it in its eyes, sticks to its own rhythm, and does not take chestnuts out of the fire for others.
Harsh conditions, clever calculation
The conditions Lavrov offered seem to be concessions, but are actually carefully designed routines. The core points: ensuring Russia's national security, protecting the rights and interests of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine, and recognizing the ownership of Crimea and the four states. Isn't this just an attempt to turn military occupation into a fait accompli?
Russia is trying to freeze the conflict through negotiations, as in the Minsk agreement of 2014, to re-settle the pen for the future of the East Mountains. Under the terms, emphasizing the “security claim” is essentially demanding that the West recognize Russia’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, which is consistent with the chaotic logic of expanding space to security in the era.
This set of conditions is also dividing the Western camp. After Trump came to power, the U.S. aid policy has been adjusted, and European countries' aid is weak. Russia sends signals for peace talks, that is, it wants to amplify the European-American contradiction: if the U.S. refuses, Europe may complain of destroying peace; if Europe shakes, NATO's united front is broken.
Russia is quite skillful in this move, taking the opportunity to test the West's bottom line and at the same time consolidate its own territorial achievements. Similar to the 2008 Georgian conflict, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which also legalized the occupation. Lavrov's statement was not to sincerely seek peace, but to retreat for advancement and strive for the initiative.
Why does Russia circumvent China?In addition to historical arrogance, there are strategic suspicions.China, as a strategic partner, provides economic support, but Russia is reluctant to seek help, fearing to be seen as a weak side.
This speculative psychology is quite obvious. Russia feels that compromising with the United States can be exchanged for loosening sanctions and economic respite, while bowing to China may mean recognizing the rise of the East, which is a psychological obstacle for them.
China, of course, will not stand up, insist on neutrality, and avoid falling into Russia's war dungeon. If China directly helps Russia, it will undermine relations with Europe, and even provoke NATO's indirect confrontation. China stressed that dialogue is the only way out, which both safeguards its own interests and preserves space for the future. Russia's calculus is fine, but China sees clearly, not interfering is the first option.
The future is dark, the game is long.
According to Lavrov, the United States will not accept the annexation of Russia, and Ukraine will not be able to surrender sovereignty.In the short term, there may be a temporary ceasefire, but long-term unrest cannot be avoided.
Ukraine will continue to push NATO membership, Russia will serve the counter, and Eastern Europe will become a permanent barrel of gunpowder. Within Russia, if compromises trigger divisions, nationalists and moderate opposition intensify, and local centralism rises, regions such as Chechnya and Tatarstan could repeat the 1990s division crisis. The Kremlin should be careful to deal with and avoid political turmoil.
Among them, China has maintained its strength and become the biggest beneficiary. Russian energy flows to the east at discounted prices, Central Asian countries are accelerating eastward cooperation, and European companies are increasing investment in China to avoid risks. This confrontation quietly pushed the Eurasian economic center of gravity eastward, and China took the initiative in the post-conflict era.
China is happy to see Russia and the West wear each other out, so that the pressure on the northern border is reduced and it is unable to cause trouble in the Far East. China has a consistent position and promotes peaceful dialogue. This is not only a moral highland, but also a strategic wisdom. In the game between major powers, victory lies in the long run. Whoever can defend his interests in the chaos will have the last laugh.
Russia's compromise, which may seem flexible, is actually a struggle in the afterglow of the empire. I would rather bow to the United States than face up to China. This mentality stems from history and is destined to be sad. China observes calmly, is full of determination, and finds the right course in the torrent of history.
International politics is cruel. The weak are not qualified to compromise, and the compromise of the strong is often a trap. Russia took a risky move, but China played steadily and maximized its interests. How far this develops depends on how it plays out next. Let's wait and see. Anyway, what does Russia want to do? It is nothing more than seeking survival and interests, but on the side of China, it is the king's way to always manage its own waterway.