[Text/Observer Network Zhang Jingjuan] The backlash effect of Trump's tariff policy continues to ferment, and American farmers may bear the heavy pressure of a huge loss of $45 billion. On the one hand, the export of soybeans and sorghum to China plummeted, and on the other hand, the cost of fertilizers and agricultural machinery soared. American farmers, who were once regarded as "ticket warehouses" by Trump, are on the verge of bankruptcy and can only wait for the White House's relief plan to "quench their thirst". And this scene is exactly the same as in 2018.
The New York Times that the Trump administration is expected to launch a new round of economic support programs aimed at farmers as early as October 7, although the scale and specific mechanisms of the bailout are not yet clear, but the current crisis is more urgent due to the sharp reduction in Chinese procurement.
According to reports, as of July this year, China's soybean purchases decreased by $2.5 billion compared with the same period last year, and it has not purchased any American soybeans since May. If Chinese buyers continue to wait and see, U.S. soybean exports to China this year will decrease by $10 billion compared with last year.
The decline in sorghum exports is even more significant. Last year, China purchased about US$1.3 billion in U.S. sorghum, but this year U.S. sorghum exports to China have plunged by 97%.
Faced with the plight of farmers, Trump said at the White House on Monday (6th),"There will be some measures aimed at agriculture this week." However, while farmers expected the bailout plan to be announced on Tuesday, the White House said the continued government shutdown forced the plan to be postponed.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said "no decisions have been made on a new agricultural policy" but revealed that Trump and Agriculture Secretary Rollins had communicated about farmers 'needs.
In Wolves, Wisconsin, USA, the field is harvesting soybeans. IC photo
Republican lawmakers estimate that farmers may need up to $50 billion in economic support this time, far exceeding the bailout in 2018. In that year, U.S. soybean exports to China plummeted by about 70%, which was dragged down. In that year, U.S. soybean exports plummeted by about $4 billion, and soybean futures prices also fell to the lowest level in nine years, causing a heavy blow to American farmers. To help offset those losses, Trump took out $23 billion in subsidies from a fund set up by the Department of Agriculture to stabilize the agriculture sector.
Today, the fund pool has been exhausted, and the source of this round of subsidy funds is still unknown.
According to reports, Trump has proposed using tariff revenue to aid farmers, but the legitimacy of this operation remains in doubt without congressional authorization.
This crisis has further exposed the limitations of Trump's trade agenda. Trump originally wanted to gain bargaining chips in trade negotiations through tariffs and open up markets for U.S. exports, but in fact, American farmers became "victims" and lost China, a big customer.
“Our agriculture is an industry that relies on exports and now annoys its biggest customers, and as a result, we are now rescuing this industry that relies on exports,” said Scott Lincicome, an economist and trade expert at the U.S. Liberal think tank, “it’s like a six-year slow-moving train accident.”
The report pointed out that the income of American farmers has been under pressure for many years.
In 2023 and 2024, the majority of bigota crops farmers suffered losses, and some farmers suffered losses by 2022.
Over the past few years, the cost of agricultural machinery, fertilizers and seeds has increased more than inflation, and interest rates have continued to rise, while almost all large-scale crops are selling less than production costs.As the use of synthetic fibers in textiles increases, global demand for cotton decreases; while corn prices are also low due to excess supply.
Shawn Arita, an economist at the Center for Agricultural Risk Policy at North Dakota State University, predicts that the total loss of nine U.S. crop growers this year will reach $45 billion, with corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton growers accounting for the vast majority.
It's the harvest season, and U.S. farmers have been calling for government support, even though they prefer to export their products to customers.
"We absolutely need some form of assistance, and if the government gave out a subsidy, I would be the first to receive it and would be happy to use the money for farm operations," said Andy Hineman, who grows sorghum, corn and wheat in Kansas, but acknowledged that the government aid is only a stopgap measure, and that some farmers may still go bankrupt, while others will only struggle to sustain until the next planting season.
Currently, the major buyers of U.S. soybeans include Mexico, the European Union, Japan and Indonesia, in addition to China, but as China turns its soybeans orders to Brazil and Argentina, the U.S. is urgently pushing for more purchases in Africa and Asia, and the Trump team is even trying to explore previously undiscovered markets such as India to ease export pressure.
Last month, Iowa, which relies heavily on soybean farming, led a delegation to India led by Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds that included Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Nagg and the state's agriculture and business leaders. The eight-day visit aims to deepen the partnership and secure more sales opportunities for U.S. soybeans.
Jim Sutter, CEO of the American Soybean Export Association, also traveled to Japan and Indonesia to explore new markets earlier. But he also admitted that "the size of the China market is too large, and it will not be easy to find a replacement overnight."
Recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent in the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) show said that China and the United States will meet during APEC in late October, and predicted that the next round of China-U.S. trade talks will make "significant breakthroughs".
However, even if China and the United States continue to advance trade agreement negotiations now and in the future, people in the agricultural community still believe that even if the two countries can reach an agreement, it is too late to save the profits of many American farmers.
A representative of the soybean industry told Politico, “At that time, half of our transportation window has passed, and for our farmers, it’s a crucial moment, but we haven’t seen any signs of any improvement that will give us hope for the problem to be solved and delivered to China.”
Darin Johnson, chairman of the Minnesota Soybean Growers’ Association and fourth-generation farmer, said: “We’re in a hurry now that even if we finally reach an agreement (with China) we can’t catch up with this year’s harvest season.”
The US “Political News Network” pointed out that in the long run, the prospects for the U.S. to restore mass exports of soybeans to China are not optimistic. China has doubts about the reliability of the Trump administration’s trade promises, plus the Chinese side is pushing for a “self-sufficiency” strategy, which could mean that in the foreseeable future, U.S. farmers are at risk of losing the Chinese market.
Leland Lazarus, a former special assistant to the commander of the U.S. Southern Command, believes that China's choice to abandon U.S. soybean producers and switch to Latin American suppliers "is sending a clear signal that China has other friends in the world, especially in the global South. These countries have now become China's 'safety valves' and have also strengthened their bargaining chips when negotiating with the United States."
As for whether soybeans will be discussed in the Sino-US economic and trade consultations, my Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun previously stated at a regular press conference that it is recommended to seek understanding of specific issues from China's competent authorities. "What I want to emphasize is that tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interests of either party. Both sides should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit."