On October 6th, French Prime Minister Le Corny, who was in office for only 27 days, submitted his resignation and became the shortest-term prime minister of the Fifth Republic of France. After that, French President Macron was caught in a political crisis of left and right dilemma. The trust of political allies in him became weaker and weaker, and the call for his resignation became louder and louder.
Macron has repeatedly said he will complete what ends in 2027.Second term,However, parties have called for Macron to dissolve parliament and hold early elections.
In the midst of the controversy, on October 6th, people photographed Macron walking alone along the river Seine in the autumn, holding a guard in front and behind, according to comments that this was also a coincidence of his current political isolation.
Party struggle continues
Three Prime Ministers find it difficult to solve huge debt problems
Some analysts believe that Macron's current political dilemma is, to some extent, the result of his early dissolution of parliament and general election in 2024. The election result fell short of Macron's expectations, and his centrist alliance lost its majority and had to seek coalition with other political parties. The newly elected parliament is a tripartite pattern of left-wing, centrist and far-right, and it is also regarded as the most divided parliament in the history of the Fifth Republic of France.
After the election, the only thing that the left and right factions in the French National Assembly could unite was that they both wanted to challenge Macron's authority. Macron's ruling coalition has less than half of the seats in parliament, making it difficult to promote the political agenda. However, Macron has been trying to control the situation and is unwilling to hold early elections. He is worried that the new election will cause him to lose more seats.
Under France's semi-presidential political system, the Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament, which can impeach the Prime Minister. As the ruling party coalition occupies far less than half of the seats, it is easy for the opposition to impeach the Prime Minister by voting.In December last year, the first prime minister after Macron dissolved parliament, Barnier, activated the constitutional mechanism, attempted to bypass parliamentary voting and directly pass the budget bill, being impeached by the left and the far-right. Successor Beirut sought a vote of confidence in parliament in September this year and was forced to resign.
The biggest challenge faced by Leclerc and his two predecessors was to solve France’s heavy national debt problem and overcome the differences between the intermediate parties that could form the government. The two former prime ministers, who were in power for only three months and nine months, were kicked down in a vote of confidence for attempting to pass a draft austerity budget.Le Corneille, on the other hand, said he was a "extremely vulnerable" prime minister, who has failed to form a cabinet until now and has failed to push the bill to reduce the huge French deficit.
At the beginning of this year, France's public debt reached 3.345 trillion euros, almost 114% of GDP, ranking third in the euro zone after Greece and Italy. France's budget deficit is expected to reach 5.4% of GDP this year.
Le Corney said he resigned because the government had previously declared to give up the exercise of constitutional powers that could bypass parliamentary voting and pass legislation directly, creating a good environment for political parties to consult, but some political parties have ignored; secondly because some parties have continued to struggle with each other, and thirdly because the new cabinet list has also sparked controversy in the camp of supporting the government.
According to reference reports, Macron gave Leicester Leicester 48 hours of final negotiation time on Friday, and suggested that if the negotiations failed would dissolve the National Assembly. Leicester must submit an action and stability draft to Macron on Saturday night, if the former succeeds in persuading the intermediate party to form some form of government, then Macron will be able to appoint a new prime minister.
The Allied Go.
Two former prime ministers criticize Macron
Edouard Philippe, the first prime minister after Macron became president for the first time in 2017, was originally regarded as Macron's hardcore ally. In this crisis, he began to show a tendency to cut with Macron. He said that Macron should appoint a new prime minister, urgently pass the budget bill, and then hold a presidential election to leave office in an orderly manner to get rid of the crisis.
Opinion polls have shown that Philip is the most popular candidate in the presidential succession struggle, and he even says directly that the current political crisis means the country collapses.
Another former Macron loyalist, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, was also outspoken in his criticism: "I can no longer understand the president's decision." He also criticized Macron for appointing a politically distinct prime minister to lead budget negotiations instead of letting parties agree beforehand. This practice reflects Macron's failure to accept the reality that power has been transferred to parliament.
Gabriel Attal was forced to resign as prime minister following the dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024.According to analysts, the dissolution of the parliament marked the beginning of the disagreement between Macron and Atal, Atal only learned at the last moment that Macron was about to dissolve the parliament, he took over the presidency’s Renaissance Party and its parliamentary league, and made clear his ambition for the 2027 presidential election. Atal again called for the appointment of a negotiating representative responsible for creating the conditions for forming the government, and stressed the need for “sharing power.”
How is the future?
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At present, some analysts believe that if Macron chooses to dissolve parliament and hold elections, it is likely that far-right parties will gain more seats in the new parliamentary elections, while Macron's centrist ruling coalition is likely to be weakened.
At present, in the French National Assembly, the far-right and far-left parties are constantly putting pressure on Macron to resign and hold a new election. The far-right National League and its allies currently hold 138 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, which is still far from more than half of the 289 seats. But even if it fails to achieve this goal after the election, the party may join forces with far-left forces to withdraw a series of legislation promoted by Macron. But Macron firmly denied the possibility of election in August.
Macron may also continue to appoint a new prime minister and let him continue to push for key budget reduction plans and overcome difficulties. But doing so is not easy. Olivier Fore, chairman of the Left Socialist Party, said that Macron has appointed three centre-right prime ministers and now should change tactics to appoint leftists. However, some analysts believe that if a left-wing prime minister is appointed, it will lead to a crisis in pension reform, which is crucial to Macron, because the left-wing party has always held a strong opposition to pension reform.
Red Star reporter Wang Yalin trainee reporter