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Edited by^W.n
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict from the Lightning War became a lasting war, the United States, Russia, and Europe are deeply trapped in the slum, but hide a common mistake - always look at China from the "post-Cold War corner perspective", both underestimating China's industrial resilience, and misjudging the balance capacity behind China's neutral stance, and eventually re-shaped the power pattern behind the conflict by China's trade network and supply chain strength.
Conflict quagmire
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a "special military operation", and the Russia-Ukraine conflict officially broke out.
Early foreigners generally thought it would be a “flash war” and some Western observers predicted the conflict could end in a few weeks; the United States and European countries quickly launched sanctions against Russia, trying to force Russia to make concessions through economic pressure.
As of December 2024, the tug-of-war between Russia and Ukraine in Donbas, Kherson and other regions has lasted for nearly three years.
Data released by the Russian Ministry of Defense in November 2024 show that since the outbreak of the conflict, the Russian army has invested more than 800,000 troops, and equipment losses have covered thousands of tanks, armored vehicles and hundreds of fighter jets. The proportion of defense expenditure in GDP has increased from 4.1% in 2021 to 6.8% in 2024.
In the United States, according to fiscal year 2024 data from the Government Accountability Office under the U.S. Congress, as of the last passage of the Ukraine aid bill in April 2024, the U.S. Congress has allocated more than US $174 billion to support Ukraine, including nearly US $70 billion in military assistance.
A large number of weapons transfers have caused some of the US military's ammunition stocks to drop to the "warning line." Although Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and other military companies have accelerated production, it is still difficult to fully fill the gap.
The European Commission's autumn 2024 economic outlook report shows that from 2022 to 2024, the EU's energy embargo on Russia will cause the cost of natural gas and oil imports to rise significantly. In 2023, the inflation rate in the euro zone will reach 5.4%. Although it will drop to 2.4% in 2024, rising food and natural gas prices are still bringing upward pressure.
The industrial sector has been impacted by high energy prices, with industrial output in Germany falling by 3.1 percent compared to 2023, and France, Italy and other countries facing similar difficulties. Continuing conflict consumption has put the U.S., Russia, and Europe under tremendous economic, military and social pressure, and they have committed critical mistakes in the process – underestimating China’s powerful power.
Misjudgment of the US
In the early days of the conflict, the United States repeatedly pressured China to "choose sides" and even threatened to impose severe sanctions if China provided "military assistance" to Russia.
The United States has believed that sanctions against Russia will make China in the energy and raw materials imports into passive, thereby affecting industrial production. but the actual situation is exactly the opposite, with the complete industrial system and flexible supply chain adjustment capacity, China has both stabilized its own production and shown strong vitality in global trade.
China's National Bureau of Statistics data show that between 2022 and 2024, China's industrial added value has grown by an average of 3.6% per year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing to grow by 6.2% and 8.1% respectively.
In the field of new energy, China's production of photovoltaic components, lithium batteries, electric vehicles accounted for a global share of more than 80%, 60% and 50% respectively, and the export of new energy vehicles in 2024 reached 6.8 million units, an increase of 25%, and the continued growth of exports to Europe and Southeast Asia, breaking expectations of the United States trying to isolate China through sanctions.
China has always insisted on not providing weapons to both sides of the conflict, while actively promoting peace negotiations.
This neutral attitude has been recognized by the international community. United Nations Secretary-General Guterres said at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2024 that China's position "provides important ideas" for easing the situation, which is in sharp contrast to the United States 'initial prediction that China "will bias towards Russia."
Russian deviation
Although the two countries maintain good bilateral relations, in the field of economic cooperation, Russia initially relied more on a single channel of energy exports and failed to pay full attention to the strategic value of China's trade network.
After the outbreak of the conflict, the West imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia, the Russian traditional European energy market sharply shrank, and the ruble exchange rate fell.
At this time, China's trade network provided key support. More importantly, China's trade network helped Russia break through Western sanctions.
Through the China-Europe train, Russian minerals and agricultural products can be transported to Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions through China; China-Russia local currency settlement cooperation continues to deepen, and the proportion of trade local currency settlement will reach 52% in 2024, effectively reducing dependence on the US dollar and euro.
These achievements far exceeded Russia’s initial expectations, making it gradually aware that China’s trade network is not only an “alternative market” but also a strategic basis for economic stability.
Europe's mistakes
Europe initially followed U.S. sanctions against Russia and tried to "decouple" from China in the supply chain, believing that it could be replaced by turning to other countries. However, actual conditions show that the irreplaceability of China's supply chain in many fields far exceeds expectations.
The "Key Raw Materials Report" released by the European Commission in 2024 shows that more than 80% of core components such as polysilicon and silicon wafers needed by the European photovoltaic industry rely on imports from China; China accounts for more than 70% of cathode materials and separators needed for lithium battery production.
In 2023, Europe tried to promote the "native new energy industry chain construction", but due to the slow progress of technology, cost and production capacity problems, the core reason is that China's component supply is limited due to European tariff policies, and local production capacity cannot be followed up in time.
European automakers such as Volkswagen and BMW have long relied on China's parts supply. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association in 2024 shows that if they completely disengage from China's supply chain, European automobile production costs will increase by 15%-20%, and the production cycles of some models will be extended by 30%.
In addition, Europe's imports of medical devices, electronic components and other products from China will increase by 12% year-on-year in 2024, effectively alleviating the "supply anxiety" in some industries.
conclusion
The underestimation of China by the United States, Russia and Europe ultimately allowed China to reshape the power pattern behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict with its own strength. This reshaping is not through military means, but relies on trade networks, supply chain resilience and neutrality, playing a unique balancing role in a complex international situation.
In the long run, the underestimation of China by the United States, Russia and Europe has prompted the international community to re-recognize China’s international role.
China is no longer a "supporting role" in the eyes of the West after the Cold War, but a force with important influence in the fields of global governance, economic cooperation, and peace promotion. This cognitive change will not only affect the subsequent development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but will also have a profound impact on the future global pattern.
Official sources and links
The ten key moments of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict [EB/OL]. 2025-02-25.
https://www.news.cn/milpro/20250225/c4e7b10b79fc4fa7a3418922de998fa0/c.htmlChina.com. Facing 2025, how can Sino-Russian relations achieve a long-term vision? [EB/OL]. 2025-01-27.
http://m.toutiao.com/group/7464365687847305778/?upstream_biz=doubaoPeople's Daily. The EU economy is expected to grow by 0.9% this year [EB/OL]. 2024-12-12.
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/content/202412/12/content_30034359.htmlHundreds of billions of dollars of aid are unknown to go to U.S. U.S. “no account” behind [EB/OL]. 2025-02-05.
https://news.cnr.cn/sq/20250205/t20250205_527062263.shtmlXinhua Net. The United States has "aided" Ukraine by more than 60 billion US dollars. Where will the money go? [EB/OL]. 2024-04-24.
http://www.news.cn/20240424/7d45521fde914e278e8e00ea3f74080b/c.htmlNational Bureau of Statistics of China. Performance of China's industrial economy in 2022-2024 [EB/OL]. 2024-12-10. http://www.stats.gov.cn/