In recent years, India's name has frequently appeared in prominent places in international news. Whether it exceeds China in population or catches up with Japan and the United Kingdom in economy, waves of topics of "India's rise" are pushing this South Asian country to the center of global attention.
As a result, the topic of India becoming two China has been repeated, and some experts have even said directly that given India ten years, it will be able to follow the path of China in the past few decades.
It sounds a bit frightening, but is it really so simple?
Let's not panic yet, and let's not rush to conclusions. India's development is indeed interesting, but whether it can become the "second China" is really not something that can be understood with a few news or one or two actions.
India’s ambition is not small, but the road under its feet is still long.
In recent years, India has indeed made the matter of "development" quite lively. Not only did it put population first, but it also packaged itself as a new favorite of global manufacturing.
Enterprises from all over the world have gone to India to set up factories one after another, and the Indian government has not been idle. It has introduced policies, attracted investment, and subsidized, as if it wanted to take over the name of "the factory of the world".
Moreover, from the perspective of international geography, India does take advantage of a lot. After Western countries deepened their vigilance against China, they began to look for their next economic partner, and India just caught this gap. Some people say that this is a "once-in-a-millennium" opportunity period for India.
For them, this opportunity is indeed rare, difficult to be so valued by the West, and naturally want to seize it.
But things don’t go so well. The fun turns into the fun, and what can really be grounded is not so much. India’s economy is rising, but the bottom is still thin.
Especially in industrial manufacturing, the problem of weak foundation has been holding back. When many projects were first announced, they were vigorous, but in the end they failed.
To make a country's manufacturing system bigger and stronger, it cannot be solved by a few policies. What it takes is decades to build and run in bit by bit. This process cannot be rushed.
More importantly, there are many internal problems in India. From social structure to administrative efficiency, to educational level and infrastructure, everything is still being made up.
These shortcomings are not solved, and more investment is also easy to swim.Now, India has ambitions and opportunities, but it is not good to say if it can go to the end.
Different paths, India cannot learn from China
Many people see the rise of India as a replica of the Chinese model. This idea is quite intuitive, after all, China is based on the manufacturing industry, now India is also engaged in manufacturing, looking really as if it is going the same way. but to look carefully, the development path of the two countries is actually completely different.
China's industrial system is based on decades of nothing to have, from small to big. government has a strong executive power, enterprises have hard work, ordinary people are willing to suffer, and the whole society operates as fast as a machine.
Moreover, China's infrastructure, education system, and market size are important conditions for supporting the development of manufacturing.
Looking back to India, its development is more dependent on the service industry.Software outsourcing, financial services, digital platforms, these are its best areas.
In the manufacturing industry, what India lacks is a complete industrial chain and supporting systems. Even if a large company sets up a factory, the parts, materials, and equipment they need to use will have to be imported from other countries.
It's like building a house. Others have their own bricks, cement, and workers, but India has to patch it up, so the efficiency is naturally incomparable.
India’s policy implementation is also not stable.
Say that foreign investment is welcome today, but tomorrow it may be changed; As soon as the factory is built here, someone over there will sue you for violating the rules.
This uncertainty, so that many enterprises dare not focus completely on India.This with China's kind of "to do it, to do it", almost half a star.
One thing that cannot be ignored is that China’s development is based on relatively stable internal societies.
And there are many contradictions within India, the problem of the tribe, the gap between the rich and the poor, the regional division, all like the mine buried underground, and once it explodes, the consequences are difficult to cope with.
The important thing is not how fast each other runs, but how unstable they are.
For China, the development of India, a neighbor, is indeed worthy of attention, but more importantly, we have to keep our strength. In the past few decades, China has relied on a complete institutional system, a strong industrial team and continuous innovation capabilities.
These things can't be copied by others just imitating them.
Today, China is no longer satisfied with being the "factory of the world", but is moving in a higher-end direction. From manufacturing to intellectual manufacturing, from quantity to quality, China is trying to push itself to the forefront of the industrial chain.
It is a difficult path, but as long as the direction is right, stick to it, no one can easily replace you.
Moreover, global development has long entered the era of multipolarity.The question is not who will replace whom, but whether everyone can find their place.
India wants to go its own way, right, China does not have to fight with it, but instead, rationally look at India's rise, understand its advantages, and see its shortcomings, it is a mature big country should have a gesture.
What China has to do is continue to do its own things well, take the technology into play, stabilize the market, and cultivate talent.
How does the external environment change, as long as your own foundation is stable, who wants to shake your position is not easy.
At this time, the comparison is not how loud the slogans are, nor how frequently the investment news is brushed, but whether you can hold on steadily, hold on, and go far.
Is India a second China?The question itself is misleading.The path of each country is different, and it is far from enough to replicate China's success by enthusiasm and policy.
What China does is not guess if others will outperform you, but clearly know what kind of country you want to be.
In today's world, there is never a shortage of competitors. But countries that can truly gain a foothold rely on long-term doctrine, systematic capabilities and self-evolution capabilities.
China's strategic adjustments in recent years are laying the foundation for longer-term goals. At this time, the most reliable attitude is to be less anxious and more sober.
India is indeed running, but China does not need to panic. Look at the future and really decide who can go further, not the thrill in front of the eye, but the bottom of the back.
So, it's right to face up to India, but don't be frightened by the words "the second China". China's roads can't be copied by others, and other people's roads may not be suitable for us. Seeing this clearly, your heart won't be confused, and the road under your feet will be more practical.
Press Release: How Long Does India Take to Become the Next China?