Time may be running out for Master of clocks Macron: What next for France?
With the escalation of the French political crisis, eight-year-old President Emmanuel Macron is facing increasing pressure.
Macron once called himself "the ruler of time", but now he has less control over the time station than he had before.In a year, his third-time prime minister resigned, and polls showed that three-quarters of voters believe the president should also resign.
Macron’s longtime ally, Edward Philip (who served as his first prime minister in 2017-2020), urged him to appoint a technical bureaucratic prime minister and hold presidential elections ahead of time in an “orderly” manner.
by Reuters
Why is the situation here?
Prime Minister Sebastian Leclerc announced his resignation at the start of the political drama on Monday, just 26 days after he took office.
He said hours later that he had agreed to stay for 48 hours at Macron's request to conduct final consultations with political parties "for national stability".
This unexpected political turmoil originated from Macron's sudden decision to dissolve the National Assembly and hold early elections in June 2024. The election resulted in a deadlock in parliament, and the centrist coalition led by Macron lost its majority and was forced to seek alliances with other political parties.
Conservative Republican leader Bruno Lettau announced his withdrawal from the ruling coalition just 14 hours after Le Corneau’s government was formed.
Survey shows three-quarters of voters believe Macron should resign.
It’s all about France’s debt.
A big challenge facing Le Corney and his two predecessors is how to resolve France's heavy national debt problem and bridge ideological differences between the centrist parties that could form a government.
At the beginning of this year, France's public debt reached 3.345 trillion euros, almost equivalent to 114% of the total economic GDP, ranking third in the euro zone after Greece and Italy. France's fiscal deficit is expected to account for 5.4% of GDP this year.
Michel Barnier and François Bayrou insisted for only three and nine months, respectively, to resign because of a vote of no confidence as they tried to address the deficit through austerity budgets.
Le Corny hasn't even had time to submit his budget plan. As soon as he announced the cabinet list on Sunday afternoon, criticism from all sides flooded in. By Monday morning, he had decided that he was unsustainable.
He blamed his departure for the party’s stubborn stance, saying the parties “acted as if they had a majority.”
Parties have turned their eyes toward the 2027 presidential election, while also preparing for an early national parliamentary election that may take place after Macron again dissolves parliament.
Who is the key person in this crisis?
Leaders who have been calling for Macron’s resignation for months come from both the far-right and the radical left.
Marine Le Pen and her far-right party "National League""Young deputy Jordan Bardera has been preparing for the election and has rejected Leclerc's invitation to talk.
Le Pen wants power, but does not want to rule
by Marina Le Pen, EPA
La France Insoumise, a radical left partyLeader Jean-Luc Mélanie has been pushing for impeachment against Macron, although this seems unlikely to be achieved.
The Socialist Party of the Middle Left of Olivier Fuller.He has been in alliance with the radical left in the last election, but has always negotiated with Le Corney on the condition of forming a leftist government.
and also Gabriel Attal, who leads Macron's own centrist Baath partyBut he said he no longer understood the president’s decision.
The center-right is the Republican Party led by Bruno RetailleauThe party had formed a so-called "common ground" alliance with centrists.
What will happen now?
Leclerc has had in-depth discussions with party representatives, and he must submit a "Action and Stability Programme" to Macron by Wednesday night.
There are currently four options — but none of them looks good.
1、 If Leclerc can convince the middle parties to form some form of government, Macron will be able to appoint a new prime minister (no matter who the candidate is).Leclerc has said that he has no intention of taking up the post, but has not rejected it entirely, but the signs are not optimistic – he said on Monday when he resigned: “I am ready to compromise, but all parties are demanding that each other fully accept their plans.”
2、 Joel Corney failed, and the Elysée Palace hinted that Macron would "take responsibility."This could mean a re-election of parliamentary elections, which would be bad news for allies and socialists, but would benefit the far-right national coalition led by Marine Le Pen. Elections must be held no later than 40 days after parliament dissolves – which means voting will be held in November.
3、 Macron’s presidency remains for 18 months, but he is facing increasing calls for resignation.He has repeatedly refused to hold early presidential elections, but that’s not impossible.Macron’s former prime minister, Benjamin Hadad, argued that his resignation was meaningless because his successor would face the same difficulties: “Political divisions have come to an end.”
4、 Even without a government deal, parties could put their differences in parliament and compromise on a limited budget.But French politics is not known for compromising culture.
Macron has no way to go.
With this year’s third prime minister announcing his resignation on Monday, Macron held his mobile phone and walked along the Seine River for a long time.
Is this a show? Maybe. But when he faced the most difficult decision of his presidency and former allies seemed to have left him, this lonely figure was the best reflection of his situation.
But the president must have long realized that there are many political challenges ahead, and he is by no means a man who surrendered without a fight-or will try again to stabilize this increasingly out-of-control France. This "time master" seems to be facing a situation where time waits for no man.
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Published by: British Broadcasting Corporation | BBC
Authors: Paul Kirby, Laura Gozzi
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0kn04453z8o
Compiled by: 24:00 Observatory