Famous writer, observer network columnist
Not long ago, in the second round of voting, Gao Miyamoto defeated Xiao Jian with 185 votes (156 votes) and was elected the next president of the Japanese Self-Democratic Party.
The Japanese parliament is expected to hold a procedural vote on October 15 to elect a new prime minister. The current ruling self-government-common party ruling coalition has failed to gain a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, but because of the three opposition parties, the people, the people and the people, have failed to agree on jointly nominating the prime minister. Not surprisingly, takaichi sanae is about to become the new Japanese Prime Minister and the first female Prime Minister of Japan.
First of all, what we should focus on is not her as Japan's first female prime minister, but her policy propositions.
Some say she was like Mrs. Thatcher, and after a cabinet meeting, Mrs. Thatcher said to everyone, “Now, let’s go to the side of the ladies.” The ladies were still drinking tea and playing cards next door, nothing to do, sitting and waiting for their husband to come home.
In the internal affairs, she proposed a shift to positive fiscal policy and increased defense spending. She also said that if elected, she would consider expanding the governing coalition framework in response to the situation where the governing coalition of the Democratic Party and the Communist Party lost a majority in both houses of Congress.
In terms of foreign relations, she emphasized strengthening the Japan-US alliance, and at the same time deepening the cooperation between Japan, the United States, South Korea, Japan, the United States and the Philippines. In terms of relations with China, Takashi has publicly visited the Yasukuni Shrine many times, denied the history of the Nanjing Massacre and promoted the "China threat theory". At the height of the election campaign, on October 1st, Takashi published a signed article in the Hudson Institute, an American think tank, discussing the Taiwan Province issue.
But no problem, this combination of pieces China has seen.Abe first played this set, then the shore field. Sharp wanted to change the way, was beaten down, and now the high market then played. not because this road was straight, but because Japan had no way to go.
In Japanese politics, there is a lack of meaningful choice between high markets and small springs, but only with the nose to grasp. small springs only talk, lack of practical, high market views are extreme but relatively clear, Japan can only hope that the balance of power can restrict high markets excessive behavior and decisions.
There is a lot of hypocrisy in the high market, and populist politicians want to catch their eyes and rely on this.But the language of the campaign and the governing language are different, and this is the colour of politicians.How the high market behaves after it comes to power, and of course, we also look at the concrete measures that follow.
The biggest problem in the city is actually not China, but the Japanese economy, and then the United StatesChina is accustomed to viewing Japanese politics from the perspective of China-Japan relations.
When Abe released the "three arrows", Japan was encouraged by it. But None of the three arrows hit the target: loose finance causes inflation, expanded fiscal spending exacerbates debt burdens, and stimulating private investment and economic enthusiasm through economic reform has always failed.
The successor of Shandong is the "Abey people", but the three arrows of the inside can not be put down, turn to the "Yongyang must be first and foremost", strengthen the US-Japan alliance, repair the relationship with South Korea, and increase the defense budget. Shandong's diplomatic achievements are said to exceed Abe, but influenced by domestic prices and the ruling Black Gold scandal, its support rate continues to be low.
Sharp wanted to reform, but after the self-government party lost the majority seats in both houses of the House of Representatives, it met with the heavy pressure of the Trump tariff war, and the domestic diplomatic trouble, it can only shadow down.
Japan has come to this point because Abe's route can't go on, and the Liberal Democratic Party has lost its usual public support. This is because the Japanese economy continues to be sluggish.
Japan is still a developed country, but if you go to Japan and take a look, you will feel like it is almost a large Taiwan region. In other words, we can't see a three-fold difference with China's per capita GDP, but we can definitely feel a three-fold difference in the price level. The worst thing is that Japan’s economy is stagnant.The appearance of the city seems to be locked in the 1960s-1980s, and I don't know where the later years have gone.
In terms of manufacturing, the pearls once owned by Japan fell into the hands of China one after another.
Disasters are coming in critical automotive sectors.
In terms of shipbuilding, it has been placed in the cold palace;
Even the previously dominant global household appliances could not beat.
In terms of science and technology, Japan has climbed the wrong science and technology tree one after another. In the era of robots, it has lost its grasp of application fields. It can only rely on some key technologies to grasp the tail of the train of the times and try not to be left behind;
On the AI side, it is kicked into the ranks of "other" by the great competition of the United States and China, and even to see the industry at the forefront is hard.
Even in terms of culture, the Korean Wave and the rising "Han Wave" are overturning the once popular "Japanese Wave".
No matter who comes to power, the first thing to face is this downturn.
The problem of Japan's re-emerging cannot be solved, no one can live long, it is more useless to change ambitions than a strong-minded female politician. Britain has had Trass, and the result is that the political life is shorter; Canada has also had Kim Campbell, and now even Canadians can't remember to have had such a one.
The United States is a new variable.
Not only would Trump plunder Japan through a tariff war, but political isolationism could also “dry Japan in the cold wind.”The new U.S. national security strategy may be “focused on the Taiwan Sea,” but it is more than pragmatic and has not specifically strengthened the outer battlefield of the Taiwan Sea, especially in the Western Pacific, including Japan and Korea.
One indirect sign is that the U.S. military is in South Korea. Lee is willing to take back military command, and Trump is also willing to give up, and is more willing to drastically shrink the size of the U.S. military in South Korea. Japan-Korea relations are not simple, but the U.S. military in South Korea is the outline of the U.S. military in Japan, this relationship is simple. The active contraction of the U.S. troops in South Korea inevitably means some weakening of the U.S. troops in Japan.
The self-government party is the result of decades of stagnant development.The self-government party is not untested, but really "submissive incompetent", and the political and economic pressure of the United States is the last rock to overwhelm the rock.
Stone broken by stone, how long can the high city hold up?
As for China's response, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs made it very clear: "We have taken note of the election results, which is Japan's internal matter. It is hoped that Japan will abide by the principles and consensus of the four political documents between China and Japan, abide by its political commitments on major issues such as history and Taiwan, pursue a positive and rational policy towards China, and implement its positioning of comprehensively promoting strategic and mutually beneficial relations."
In vernacular: to cooperate, welcome; To be a demon, oppose it.
Historically, Japan stepped on the rise of China, and now it is impossible.The high market wanted to draw ballots with Chinese themes, it was between her and the Japanese voters.
She wants to learn shore field, use China as a pedestal, then China's giant stone will inevitably crush her leg. She will also talk to China about "Taiwan issue", what do you think! She can wind, but can not do waves, set the sea god needle here in China.