Trump's policy towards Ukraine has shifted significantly, from suggesting Ukrainian peace talks to publicly supporting its continued fighting. This shift is due both to internal political pressure from Western countries such as the United States and Europe, and because of his pessimism about the outlook for a ceasefire in Russia. Trump recently announced that the United States would provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of more than 2000 kilometers and allow Ukrainian troops to attack sensitive targets in Russia, including the Kremlin.
The move undoubtedly touched the bottom line of Russia. According to news from the Ukrainian side, When the Ukrainian army obtains the Tomahawk cruise missile, about 2,000 military targets in Russia will face the risk of being targeted. Such consequences are obviously unacceptable to Moscow.
01. Putin's warning failed, and Trump still decided to provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine
According to local news reports, on October 5, In the interview, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it clear that if the United States provided Ukraine with long-range strike and precision strike weapons, including "Tax" missiles, the positive development of Russian-US relations would be completely broken.
Russia has issued an unprecedented harsh warning message, and the Kremlin has made it clear that if the U.S. is equipped with "Tax" cruise missiles for Ukraine, it will be a key signal of a "quality change" in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, not only predicts the further escalation of the conflict, but also is closely linked to the strategic game between the United States and Russia.
However, this warning did not have the expected effect, On October 6, Trump announced that he had made a decision to supply Ukraine with cruise missiles.The move carries great risks and is likely to push the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in a dangerous and unknown direction, both for Putin and pushing the NATO-Russia confrontation to the forefront.
The Russian side has drawn a clear and firm red line for the United States and issued a serious warning to Washington: The current actions of the United States are tantamount to opening up a dangerous "Pandora's Box."Once the “Tax” missiles interfere in it, it will inevitably escalate the Ukrainian crisis and even potentially trigger a direct military confrontation between the US and Russia. This series of consequences is by no means limited to the European continent, and it is difficult for the United States itself to escape this storm unscathed and unscathed.
02. Russia is facing the test of dealing with the US Tomahawk missile, and improper handling may lead to major conflicts
Although cruise missiles can aggravate the complexity of the situation, it is difficult to completely change the situation on the battlefield.It has a range of 2,000 kilometers and is difficult to intercept. It allows Ukraine to have the ability to attack Moscow, the capital of Russia, and key targets in depth. Russia faces more risks of losses, but it is difficult for Ukraine to use this to make Russia yield to the ceasefire. Moreover, Ukraine does not have the ability to independently operate the missile attack. The US military will be more deeply involved in the in-depth attack on Russia, and the situation will become more complicated.
The Trump administration once wanted to enhance Ukraine's battlefield advantage by providing Tomahawk missiles and force Russia to return to the negotiating table, but he underestimated Putin's determination to fight Russia. It is difficult for a single weapon to control the battlefield, and it may also lead to the escalation of conflicts. Trump said he made a decision but was worried about its consequences.
Russia believes that even if the Ukrainian army obtains the "Tomahawk" cruise missiles, Kiev will find it difficult to reverse the deadlock in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.At present, the front line of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is basically in a deadlock. Ukraine ridicules Russia for its weak offensive and its difficulty in making a breakthrough itself.
The United States and the West are frantically testing on the brink of danger, which undoubtedly increases the risk of falling into the abyss. The Trump administration's blatant decision to supply Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is likely to become one of the most dangerous turning points in the conflict.
There are two great dangers hidden in this decision: First, the nature of Western military assistance to Ukraine has changed drastically, from the original defensive weapons to offensive weapons that can attack Russia’s deep targets; and second, such an escalation is highly likely to force Putin to take more extreme countermeasures."Tomahawk" missiles are about to arrive in Ukraine, and how Russia will respond will become a key factor in determining the direction of this crisis.
It is foreseeable that Putin's counter-measures will escalate and Trump's desire for peace will be even more out of reach. Putin may adopt stronger measures, such as increasing attacks on Ukraine's rear command center, supplying advanced weapons to U.S. opponents, suspending cooperation with the United States in other fields and even direct military operations. Russia may also attack ships carrying U.S. arms and Tomahawk missile trains.
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO does not dare to direct military conflict with Russia, the United States only wants to profit, and refuses to provide free military assistance to NATO allies and Ukraine. Putin believes that the Russian military's probationary actions against NATO show that the United States and NATO are not willing to struggle hard with Russia, is a "paper tiger". The U.S. West adheres to the bottom line of not direct conflict with Russia, because Russia has a strategic nuclear force to destroy the world, no one is willing to burn for Ukraine and Russia.
The current war situation has entered a new stage, dominated by fierce drone confrontations and large-scale rear air strikes. Uzbekistan's use of drone groups to attack Russia's key energy facilities has achieved remarkable results. However, Russia has advanced weapons such as Iskander and a large number of combat drones. Even if Uzbekistan obtains the Tomahawk cruise missile, Russia still has an advantage in weapons and strategic reserves. In the long run, Ukraine will not be able to withstand long-term consumption, and Russia will not let the United States 'attempt to escalate the conflict succeed.