The recent days in Poland are not so bad, originally in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the front, endless "anti-Russian sharp knives", but now suddenly became popular, NATO drone incidents just over, the U.S. political community has released cold words "will not be hard for Poland and Russia".
Then, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had been silent for a long time, made a rare voice, pointing out that Poland and other Eastern European countries were the "behind-the-scenes driving force" that disrupted the situation. A country that was once regarded as the "Depth Charge" of the Western camp seemed to be being quietly marginalized by its allies, and the wind direction has changed. This time, Poland may really have to face the storm alone.
Who is the one who really fires the fire?
Let's start with Merkel's remarks. She did not make them casually. In an interview with Hungarian media, she brought up the already dusty 2021 "EU-Russia Dialogue Mechanism."
That time, she and French President Macron tried to push for a high-level strategic dialogue with Russia with the simple aim of avoiding war and diplomatically easing the Ukraine crisis.
But the plan was not warmed up yet, and was rejected by the three countries of Poland and the Baltic Sea, who were tough and resolutely opposed to dialogue with Russia, believing that it was a "jamming policy".
Merkel regretted this and suggested that it was this “non-black-and-white” thinking that pushed the situation step by step to the edge of war, in other words, she believed that if it wasn’t for countries such as Poland to force hard, today’s Ukraine’t be so bad.
This accusation came from Merkel's mouth, and the weight was not light. She was one of the European leaders of that generation who advocated dealing with Russia through diplomacy, and behind her was the voice of "strategic autonomy" in Europe.
Poland in her eyes was not the brave warrior who stood on the front, but the “irresponsible teenager” who burned the diplomatic bridge and still believed himself to have a sense of justice.
To understand Merkel’s accusations, we must also look from history, that Poland’s hostility to Russia has long been deeply rooted, the trauma of the Second World War, the repression of the Cold War, coupled with the occupation memory of the Soviet era, have made Poland instinctively alert to Russia.
In the Polish minds, Germany has never really “washed” the shadow of history, which has caused Poland to ignore any attempt to settle with Russia.
There have been signs of discord between the two countries. In 2021, Polish President Duda temporarily canceled the meeting with Merkel, which has sent a signal that "we are not the same people." This lack of mutual trust doomed Poland and "Old Europe" to diverge in its strategic direction towards Russia.
Therefore, Merkel’s voice, not just “the old bill,” but an open line criticism, she represents, is the traditional force that hopes Europe can get rid of American interference and solve its own security problems.
And Poland’s approach is to hand over the security power to NATO and Washington, and to rise to the front, regardless of whether there is a fire in the back yard or not.
Poland's Abacus
Why is Poland willing to be this “accelerator” not with a heated mind, but with its own “little ninety-nine”, since the beginning of the war, Poland has played the “Iron friend of Ukraine”.
The first country to send out the Leopard-2 main battle tank, the first country to propose intercepting Russian missiles into Uzbekistan's airspace, and the first country to shout "military aid must be increased" on international occasions. If the war was a election, Poland is undoubtedly the one who worked the hardest to get votes.
It does so, of course, has its own calculator, first of all the security, Poland's special geographical location, has historically eaten too much of the "great-power seals" losses, if Ukraine falls, the next could be it, so it will bet that it will completely lay down Russia in exchange for decades of geo-security.
The second is the position, the Polish economy has developed in the past few years, from GDP per capita in 1989 only $ 2,300, now has broken $ 20,000.
It feels that it is time for it to be on the table and should no longer sit in the "child's seat". Through this war, it wants to prove that it is the security core of the EU and the pillar of NATO's eastern flank.
For a deeper motivation, some people pointed out that some political forces in Poland have always had a "cultural affinity" for historical Western Ukraine regions, such as Lviv.
Although this complex has never been clearly expressed on official occasions, it is common in some think tanks and academic analysis. If the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, Poland may hope to expand its influence in the chaos.
But the problem is that this radical route is extremely risky. Poland once threatened to intercept Russian missiles entering Ukraine. This approach can easily trigger a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. Once the gun goes wrong, who will take the cover? Germany and France certainly do not want to be dragged into it.
Worse yet, Poland is also increasingly “singering back” within the EU, from Ukrainian food imports to refugee policy, Poland’s repeated unilateral actions, and even ignoring the unified policy framework of Brussels, this “I do my way” practice is undermining the confidence within the EU and also making it more and more “exotic” in the European family.
Could there be “ally”?
Just as Poland and Germany gradually moved away, the United States also began to "play tai chi", Trump's core figure, former finance minister Mnuchin openly said: "Even if Putin flashes Poland, it does not mean that the United States will use the army."
This is not a paragraph, but appears in the media, simply, “You hit you, I see my,” the meaning behind the phrase is clear: Poland does not take NATO’s fifth article as a iron dish, the United States does not intend to engage in a nuclear war for Eastern Europe, especially in the context of the growing possibility of Trump’s return.
Looking at the "Strengthening Defense Cooperation Agreement" between the United States and the United States, there is also a lot of "holding a hand", although the U.S. troops are stationed in Poland, but mostly deployed in the west, away from the sensitive area near the Russian territory of Kaliningrad, and in the agreement, key issues such as wartime command power are deliberately blurred, even words such as "permanent presence" do not dare to write in.
What does this mean? The attitude of the United States is very clear: Poland is a frontier fortress that can be used, but it is not a victim that must be tied together. Once the situation gets out of control, the United States can "withdraw" at any time and leave the problem to the Europeans themselves.
Mnuchin's remarks are, to some extent, a "preview" and a "psychological warning" to Poland: don't take yourself too seriously, and don't expect us too much.
Merkel’s accusations inspire a re-examination of Poland’s recent years of agitation; Mnuchin’s cold speech poses a big question about Poland’s sense of security, once seen as a leader on “anti-Russian military vehicles,” but now likely to become abandoned passengers.
Poland's problem is not just too radical tactically, but a lack of strategic coordination. It plunged into the confrontation with Russia, but forgot that the alliance system is about "in tune". Germany and France are unwilling to escalate conflicts, and the United States is unwilling to be dragged into the war, but Poland rushed forward alone. As a result, it couldn't keep up behind it and there was a minefield in front of it.
More realistically, if Poland continues this path, the economic and political costs will gradually appear, European and American investment may turn to more secure countries, the sense of isolation within the EU will intensify, and even its position in the Eurasian trade channel may be replaced.
For the EU and NATO, the Polish problem is not an individual case, but a shrinkage of a trend: confronting Russia, a confrontation or an attempt to mitigate, a debate that will determine the next safe course for Europe as a whole.
How the outcome will end, no one can predict in advance, but it is certain that if Poland does not re-examine its role and strategy, Merkel's criticism and the coldness of the United States, I fear it is only the beginning, the pursuit of the "sense of great power" path, if it loses direction, it may also enter an increasingly isolated gap.