Preliminary
Before the sea breeze in Passney blew, the American ship had already docked.
In October 2025, an explosion from the British media, pushing the silently signed rare-earth cooperation agreement between Pakistan and the United States to the light, and more side-sighted, is the initiative of the Pakistani side to propose a new port in the port of Guadal "near" Pasni, specifically to the United States to send rare-earth.
On the one hand is the Chinese giant-built Chinese-Pakistani economic corridor, known as the "Iron Belt Brothers", but on the other hand is the Pakistani quietly open a back door for the United States, ready for people to make rare-earth express.
Rare land exchanges dollars, barter goes on steel rope
As of 2025, Pakistan's foreign debt has surged to $130 billion, foreign exchange reserves can't withstand imports even for 1.5 months, inflation rate is up to 21.3%, and the people can't even eat flour.
In the face of this mess, the Pakistani side began to move the brain of the minerals. Minerals are not worth money? That's because nobody came to dig. At this time the Americans came, with 500 million dollars of investment and a paper agreement, and also took the first 2 tons of key minerals samples.
This is not an ordinary mine, but something that the United States is anxious about: rare earths, antimony, and copper. In particular, antimony, which China has just implemented export controls, is a "strategic small metal" that missiles, fighter jets, and batteries cannot be separated from. The United States cannot refine it by itself, and its stocks will last for more than 40 days at most. The rare earth supply chain is almost entirely supported by China.
At this time, the Trump administration suddenly greeted Pakistan with a smile, not out of feelings, but because of the reality that rare earths were "cut off", forcing them to find an "alternative supplier".
So on September 8th, the U.S. Strategic Metal Company (USSM) and the Pakistani military engineering department signed a memorandum of understanding, mining, transportation, security are all "a dragon", Marshal Munir personally attended, white paper black, the Pakistani side to seriously dry, and this is not a short-term trial, in the plan is also the construction of refineries and railway supporting action, Pasni Harbour, is the gateway to this "rare-earth export hub".
Pasni has Gwadar back. Who is the protagonist and who is the shadow?
The location of the Port of Pasni is not a head-to-head, it is only 112 kilometers from the port of Guadalupe, which China has invested billions of dollars in, a port in two directions: Guadalupe to the north, connecting the Chinese-Pakistani economic corridor; Pasni to the west, directly to the Arab Sea, the next stop in the United States.
Pakistan promised in the agreement that it would "not station U.S. troops," but everyone knows that if capital comes in, the technical, security, and management teams will naturally follow suit. By inserting a port nail on the edge of Gwadar Port, the United States can not only choke the "throat" of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, but also keep an eye on Iran (Pasni is only 160 kilometers away from the Iranian border). This calculation is better than the Pakistan Railway's own calculations are clear.
On the Chinese side, it has long placed high hopes on Gwadar Port. Supporting railways, highways, and natural gas pipelines are all being laid little by little. The investment of 85 billion US dollars is no joke.
If Pakistan turns around, it will direct the resource flow to Pasni, and let the United States skip Gwadar and get minerals directly. This is not diversion, but distraction, and even more "division of trust".
Barter's Balance and China's Cold Card
Of course, Pakistan has not openly "turned against water." They have made it quite clear: we want to diversify, but we will not give up our relationship with China. This may sound like "I will not cheat on you, just make a few more friends." The reality is that Pakistan does have diplomatic autonomy and is indeed in trouble economically. However, this strategy of "getting both sides right", if you don't play well, you will not please both sides.
Historically, US-Pakistan relations are not without foundation. From the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan to the war on terror, they were indeed close for some time. But now, the United States has come with a strategic purpose, not to "save Pakistan" but to "use Pakistan." "Supporting Pakistan and suppressing India" is a major turn in the Trump administration's South Asia policy. It attempts to use rare earth cooperation to win over Pakistan and contain China.
China, on the other hand, is not unprepared, China has the world's 92.3% of rare-earth metallurgy separation capacity, other countries even dig out minerals, and eventually have to be sent to China for processing, China's purification cost is only $ 800 / ton, is a third of other countries.
More importantly, this is not "whoever has the final say", but "whoever can refine has the right to speak." No matter how many mines Pakistan has, it cannot refine high-quality rare earth products without the support of Chinese technology and industrial chain.
Therefore, there is no need for China to react emotionally because of the temporary "swing" of Pakistan Railway. Rare earths are technology-intensive industries, and you can't cut off China's lifeline by taking away a truckload of mines. What's more, China-Pakistan military cooperation is still stable, and 81% of Pakistan's weapons imports still depend on China. The "hard goods" such as J-35 fighter jets and Air Police-500 early warning aircraft cannot be easily replaced by the United States.
Without brothers in front of interests, strategy is the bottom line.
The Pasni Port incident is actually a mirror, reflecting the background of international relations: there are no eternal friends, only eternal interests. Pakistan's choice is not difficult to understand. In the face of the economic crisis, they need capital, technology and a way out. However, the problem is that relying on resources for cash can solve temporary difficulties, but it may lead to long-term worries.
For China, the focus is not on Pakistan "near the United States", but on whether it still respects the strategic bottom line of China-Pakistan cooperation. The port of Guadalcanal is not as simple as a port, it is China's energy artery to the Middle East and Africa, it is the key node of the "Belt and Road".
For the United States, counting on Pakistan to solve the supply of rare earths can only be said to be a "temporary solution." Pakistan's rare earth reserves are not yet clear, and its mining technology is far inferior to that of China. It is at best a "temporary measure."
To truly break the dependence on China, the United States has to face a reality: you do not want to open your own mine, and expect others to dig for you, refined for you, can still follow up, this "rare-earth utopia", destined to be only an illusion.
conclusion
Rare earth is just the fireplace, the port is the chessboard. China-Pakistan relations are facing a stress test without smoke, and Pasni is not the beginning of the breakup, but the breaking point of trust. China is not afraid of others to make friends, but someone must know that the bottom line cannot be touched.
References:
Isn't the "Ba Tie" iron anymore? Pakistan decides to sell rare earths to the United States
2025-10-05 China.com
Inviting the U.S. to build a port near the Chinese port of Pakistan, what does Bartholomew mean?
Sina Finance 2025-10-07