Once Putin dies or steps down, Ukraine will be really in danger! Let's just put it this way. When Putin is on stage, Russia can still hold on, but if he leaves, civil strife breaks out in Russia. After the hawks come to power, can Ukraine still hold on?
The lights of the Kremlin were always lit at night, but what if the light suddenly went out, the Russian power chain would be broken? on the Ukrainian border line, the gunfire has been sounding for more than three years, Putin is still on the stage, everything is still counted; if he goes and fights inside, the eagles pick up the bars, will the defense line of Kiev really overcome that wind?
The Russian leadership system over the years relied on a single person to stabilize the overall situation. The general election in March 2024, Putin's fifth seated position, the domestic support for action in the direction of Ukraine has not fallen much. In return, this special military operation, which began on February 24, 2022, was intended to maintain regional security, can be dragged to now, the Russian army advanced parts of Donetsk and Lugansk in the east, and the situation settled on the western side with the help of the West. When Putin was in power, the internal factions, although friction, but can always suppress the fire. Last June's Wagner incident was an example, when the armed forces briefly lost control, exposed the weaknesses of the system, Putin came out, and things settled. The security department followed a large exchange of blood,
Russia’s power core relies heavily on his personal authority, and historical experience lies there. The 2014 Crimean events, when the inside of Ukraine turned into a pot, Russia seized the opportunity to act quickly, and on March 18 the process was integrated. Now if the power vacuum appeared, the same impulse is unlikely to come back. Analysts pointed out that Putin’s core circle had a few potential successors, but they were mostly harder than Putin. As the secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, then the acknowledged eagle giant, firmly believed that the West had always been aimed at Russia. Former President Dmitry Medvedev also spoke on social media platforms, claiming that Ukraine was strong.
When these hawks came to power, life in Ukraine was sad. When Putin was in office, he still maintained some restraint, such as proposing the idea of establishing a safe area, but strategically did not plunge into a dead end. He even warned the West that if it sent troops or supplied long-range missiles, it would bring the matter to the level of a world war. But what about the successor? They may throw away these concerns and push the radical line directly. Extreme voices in Russia are already under Putin's control. Now that they are released, calls for tactical nuclear weapons may become mainstream policy. Ukraine's resistance is already declining, Western aid is showing signs of fatigue, supply lines are too long, and defense lines are weak. If Russia launches an unlimited attack, it is obvious that Kiev's defense system cannot withstand it.
The conflict inside Russia, it was not a little. The battlefield frustration made the military circle to blow up the pot, some generals publicly said the intelligence assessed the big leak, underestimated the resilience of Ukraine. The loss of senior officers, even ignited the fire of the hard party. Putin adjusted the personnel for this, in May 2024, Andrei Belovovov took over the defense minister, who was backed up by the economy, but not so averse to the military adventure. Looking at the outside, it was in the inclination to the Eagles. The core circle disagreement, mainly on the goal of the Ukrainian operation, someone felt that the resources should be taken, someone needed to speed up the victory. Putin was pressed not to collapse, and now as he went, these cracks will instantly
In order to prove themselves, the factions of Russia will first strike their hands against the outside. Ukraine will be the first target of their legitimacy. The transition period of power will be disrupted, the local forces will crumble, the hardship will steadfastly pass through the military adventure. Think of Wagner's time, the rebel chief is driven straight into, relying on the brief relaxation of Putin's authority. If the future is a repetition, the Russian system will rely on the individual, now there is no one, the wave of adventure is higher than a wave. Ukraine's trouble is essentially the help to sustainability and the Russian war machine. The Russian industry is still moving, the source of equipment is constant, the Ukrainian warehouses are at the bottom.
The international community is aware that Russia, after Putin, is not automatically moving toward peace, but may slide toward a more dangerous path. The Western aid model, which has helped Ukraine for a while, can be long-term, ignoring the risk of Russian power change, will only make the region pay a bigger price. China has always argued through dialogue to resolve the crisis and promote peace negotiations, which is the right way.
The lights of the Kremlin were always lit at night, but what if the light suddenly went out, the Russian power chain would be broken? on the Ukrainian border line, the gunfire has been sounding for more than three years, Putin is still on the stage, everything is still counted; if he goes and fights inside, the eagles pick up the bars, will the defense line of Kiev really overcome that wind?
The Russian leadership system over the years relied on a single person to stabilize the overall situation. The general election in March 2024, Putin's fifth seated position, the domestic support for action in the direction of Ukraine has not fallen much. In return, this special military operation, which began on February 24, 2022, was intended to maintain regional security, can be dragged to now, the Russian army advanced parts of Donetsk and Lugansk in the east, and the situation settled on the western side with the help of the West. When Putin was in power, the internal factions, although friction, but can always suppress the fire. Last June's Wagner incident was an example, when the armed forces briefly lost control, exposed the weaknesses of the system, Putin came out, and things settled. The security department followed a large exchange of blood,
Russia’s power core relies heavily on his personal authority, and historical experience lies there. The 2014 Crimean events, when the inside of Ukraine turned into a pot, Russia seized the opportunity to act quickly, and on March 18 the process was integrated. Now if the power vacuum appeared, the same impulse is unlikely to come back. Analysts pointed out that Putin’s core circle had a few potential successors, but they were mostly harder than Putin. As the secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, then the acknowledged eagle giant, firmly believed that the West had always been aimed at Russia. Former President Dmitry Medvedev also spoke on social media platforms, claiming that Ukraine was strong.
When these hawks came to power, life in Ukraine was sad. When Putin was in office, he still maintained some restraint, such as proposing the idea of establishing a safe area, but strategically did not plunge into a dead end. He even warned the West that if it sent troops or supplied long-range missiles, it would bring the matter to the level of a world war. But what about the successor? They may throw away these concerns and push the radical line directly. Extreme voices in Russia are already under Putin's control. Now that they are released, calls for tactical nuclear weapons may become mainstream policy. Ukraine's resistance is already declining, Western aid is showing signs of fatigue, supply lines are too long, and defense lines are weak. If Russia launches an unlimited attack, it is obvious that Kiev's defense system cannot withstand it.
The conflict inside Russia, it was not a little. The battlefield frustration made the military circle to blow up the pot, some generals publicly said the intelligence assessed the big leak, underestimated the resilience of Ukraine. The loss of senior officers, even ignited the fire of the hard party. Putin adjusted the personnel for this, in May 2024, Andrei Belovovov took over the defense minister, who was backed up by the economy, but not so averse to the military adventure. Looking at the outside, it was in the inclination to the Eagles. The core circle disagreement, mainly on the goal of the Ukrainian operation, someone felt that the resources should be taken, someone needed to speed up the victory. Putin was pressed not to collapse, and now as he went, these cracks will instantly
In order to prove themselves, the factions of Russia will first strike their hands against the outside. Ukraine will be the first target of their legitimacy. The transition period of power will be disrupted, the local forces will crumble, the hardship will steadfastly pass through the military adventure. Think of Wagner's time, the rebel chief is driven straight into, relying on the brief relaxation of Putin's authority. If the future is a repetition, the Russian system will rely on the individual, now there is no one, the wave of adventure is higher than a wave. Ukraine's trouble is essentially the help to sustainability and the Russian war machine. The Russian industry is still moving, the source of equipment is constant, the Ukrainian warehouses are at the bottom.
The international community is aware that Russia, after Putin, is not automatically moving toward peace, but may slide toward a more dangerous path. The Western aid model, which has helped Ukraine for a while, can be long-term, ignoring the risk of Russian power change, will only make the region pay a bigger price. China has always argued through dialogue to resolve the crisis and promote peace negotiations, which is the right way.