The World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest global trade outlook report on October 7 that, influenced by factors such as the weak global economic recovery and U.S. tariff policy, the growth of global trade in goods in 2026 is expected to be drastically reduced to 0.5%, compared with the August forecast of 1.8% significantly.

Affected by the relationship between trade in goods and production, trade in services will also be indirectly impacted by tariffs. The report predicts that the growth rate of global service exports will drop from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and further drop to 4.4% in 2026.

WTO economists emphasized that trade restrictions and policy uncertainty spread to more economies and industries, posing major downside risks.

WTO Director-General Iweala said at the press conference on the same day that despite the strong headwinds brought by unilateral tariff measures and trade policy uncertainty, global trade still showed some resilience thanks to the stability provided by the multilateral trading system and the appropriate measures taken by members in response to tariff changes.

In the report, the WTO raised its forecast for global commodity trade growth in 2025 from 0.9% of its August forecast to 2.4%.

The report shows that in the first half of 2025, the volume of global trade in goods will grow by 4.9 per cent, and the volume of global trade in goods in US dollars will grow by 6 per cent. The North American region to expand imports in advance to avoid high tariffs, improve macroeconomic conditions, and the surge in demand for artificial intelligence-related commodities are the main factors driving growth.