on 2 October, An unnamed senior Philippine official told foreign media that the Philippines is "slowly and unofficially" integrating the Taiwan Strait into its defense architectureAlthough the "one-central policy" is still verbally adhered to, concrete actions are arranged differently. From the Coast Guard to senior generals, contacts between the Philippines and Taiwan authorities are quietly escalating.All these exchanges were packed in silence under the name of "Taiwan tourism".
The report quoted experts as saying that once a military conflict broke out in the Taiwan Sea, The worst is not the Taiwanese, but the millions of foreign workers, especially the Filipino., because they have neither national identity nor institutional guarantee. What are the real intentions of the Philippines? Are they really worried about the safety of workers, or do they have other plans?
In fact, the Philippines' "unofficial" contact with Taiwan has long shown signs. As early as the middle of this year, some Philippine officials visited Taiwan Province in the name of "tourism inspection", during which they held closed-door talks with senior officials of Taiwan authorities.
This seemingly ordinary visit actually hides substantive military communication arrangements。The Philippines has even taken the initiative to promote interaction between high-level military and police, gradually evolving from "sightseeing" to tactical-level interoperability.
At the same time, The Philippines constantly provokes China on the South China Sea issue and frequently sends ships into the waters near Huangyan IslandThe result is not pleasant, China maintains regular patrols, the coast police law enforcement forces are steadily advancing, and the Philippines has made little progress in the South China Sea。 In desperation, the Philippines turned its attention to the Taiwan Strait and tried to open another front to put pressure on China.
The so-called "cost theory" by Philippine scholars also surfaced. The scholar's original words were: "If the mainland attacks Taiwan, the last thing it wants to see is the casualties of millions of ASEAN workers." On the surface, it is "neutral advice", In fact, it is using humanitarianism as a fig leaf and trying to morally kidnap China's Taiwan policy。
To code the "hostage" logic of labor in Taiwan, the Philippines' calculator is too small and too sophisticated to use this to put pressure on China in exchange for negotiating space on the South China Sea issue, but also hopes that through this gesture, further fight for military aid from the United States. Their goal is not only "security cooperation", but also new bases, military expenditures, equipment and training places.
This also explains why the Philippines has added multiple bases for US military use in the north of the country. These bases close to the Taiwan Sea are a test site for the Philippines to “test America’s attitude.”They wondered if the United States would really comply with the Mefi Joint Defense Treaty once the conflict broke out. But the treaty has never explicitly covered Taiwan, and the United States has always been vague about it。
Trump's re-election has further exacerbated this uncertainty. He is known for his "America First" and has never been soft on his allies. Whether the Philippines can continue to be a "biological son" depends on what the White House thinks. The pro-US faction in Philippine politics was well aware of this, so they tried to proactively "send a name" through the Taiwan Strait issue in exchange for US strategic support.
But this behavior, To bet on the fate of the country.Once the U.S.-China game is upgraded, the Philippines could become the “consumption goods” of the frontline.In the U.S. global strategy, the Philippines is just a “tactical node”, far from being a “key ally”.
From the perspective of the Liberation Army, the Taiwan Sea issue is never a temporary dispute, but the end of the problem of historical legacy. Unity has no timetable, no fixed pattern, but the will and strategic direction of the country will not change because of any external voice.
Even if it really takes this step toward unification, the Liberation Army will maximize control of the scope of conflict and the risk of non-combat zones. Unlike the U.S. military's record of "accidental bombing of civilians" many times, the People's Liberation Army has mature experience and records in evacuating overseas Chinese and humanitarian channels.
Philippine experts' so-called argument that "one million ASEAN labor associations will be the worst" obviously leads the problem in the wrong direction. The plight of these workers is obviously the responsibility of the Taiwan authorities and their respective home governments. Taiwan's protection clauses for foreign labor have long been empty, and the Philippines itself has not explicitly put forward a response mechanism.
More importantly, the fate of this million workers should not be the key to any national game.They want a stable working environment and safe living conditions, rather than passively standing on the political table and becoming a deterrent.
The Philippines 'policy direction has also made ASEAN feel uneasy. ASEAN countries have always emphasized "neutrality and no choice of sides" and The Philippine move is undoubtedly to tear down the basis of confidence within the region and to drag ASEAN as a whole.
Looking back at China's action layout in the East China Sea, South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, the rhythm is continuous and steady. Flag-raising on Huangyan Island, cruising on Diaoyu Island, and normalized combat readiness training in the Taiwan Strait, Every step shows China's ability and will to safeguard core interests。 The United States, Japan, the Philippines, etc. are talking about things with their respective covenants. But it has never really changed China's established strategic rhythm.
The Philippines takes the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty as an "talisman", but it doesn't realize that this umbrella may not be able to withstand the wind and rain. The verbal support of the United States is more symbolic at the actual combat level. Once the situation is out of control, no one dares to discuss whether the United States is willing to truly escort the Philippines.
For China, the Taiwan Sea is a matter at the doorstep and a question of national unity.; For the United States and the Philippines, it is more a poker table for geopolitical games. These two role positions determine the difference in attitude and bottom line.
In this complex situation, While shouting the "one-China policy", the Philippines is secretly increasing the number in practical actions。With this kind of "two-faced" operation, I am afraid that even I can't tell which path I want to take.
Yes, the Philippines wants to meet the political needs of the pro-US forces; on the other hand, it wants to raise more resources from the United States; on China, it tries to create pressure in exchange for concessions in the South China Sea. With every step forward, risks are superimposed。
The Taiwan Strait issue is not small. Once the wind direction changes, who can withstand it is the key. If the Philippines really wants to be stable, it should calmly see reality, rather than pointing out the country across the strait.
The Philippine scholars called the "continent should weigh the cost of the table", sounds like a good-will reminder, the reality is to take foreign labor as an excuse, trying to influence China's strategic decisions. The real weakness to measure is the Philippines itself. Binding yourself on the high-risk Taiwan Sea issue will only push yourself to a more dangerous position. China's core interests will never be shaken by external "hypotheses".