Recently, the U.S. plans to support “Taxic” cruise missiles to Ukraine, and former U.S. Defense Secretary Advisor Douglas McGregor is deeply concerned about this. If Ukraine uses Tomahawk missiles, it may trigger a nuclear war between Russia and the United States.
The "Tomahawk" cruise missile is not an ordinary weapon. This cruise missile with a range of up to 2500 kilometers can achieve ultra-long-range precision strikes. If Ukraine possesses this weapon, Russia's horizontal and horizontal targets will be hit, and the nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be rewritten. If an attack on the suburbs of Moscow, Ryazan or Kazan, it will touch Russia's core national security interests.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that the U.S. supply of tactical-axis missiles to Ukraine will mean the conflict enters a “new stage of escalation,” which means the U.S. military is directly involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war, with Washington moving directly from behind the scenes to the front of the conflict. Russia and the United States have come to the front desk to compete in force, which is a very dangerous signal.
McGregor warned that there is a potential "rapid escalation mechanism" in modern great power conflicts, and the escalation from conventional weapons to nuclear weapons may not be gradual, but show a leap-forward development under specific trigger conditions. In short, once a direct military conflict between major powers breaks out, the traditional conflict de-escalation mechanism may fail, especially when both sides have huge nuclear arsenals. Take the Russia-Ukraine conflict as an example:
"Once Ukraine uses Tomahawk missiles, the conflict between Russia and the United States will escalate within a few hours and quickly turn into a nuclear weapons-level war. This war will be completely out of control. Once a nuclear war starts, everyone will lose in the end."
McGregor's warning revealed the fundamental characteristic of nuclear war "uncontrollability". Military deductions have repeatedly proved a truth. Once the threshold of nuclear war is crossed, Pandora's box will be opened, and nuclear war will not be predicted and managed. Misjudgment by both sides will bring devastating disasters. No grass will grow wherever the nuclear bomb goes, and no living thing will escape death.
Russia’s use of nuclear weapons is a red line that triggers a nuclear counterattack once a nuclear facility is attacked, and if Ukraine uses “Taxic” cruise missiles to hit Russian nuclear facilities (including nuclear power plants), Moscow would think it triggered that red line. Though Trump tried to manage the risk of conflict escalation through the “degree” of arms aid, this fine control is extremely vulnerable in a real war environment. Accidents, miscommunication or miscalculation on the battlefield can detonate this carefully constructed risk management structure.
Now Trump has made a decision "to some extent" on providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, but he wants to know how Kiev intends to use these missiles. This cautious attitude reflects the U.S. government's deep concern about the escalation of the conflict. The complexity of the problem, however, is that once the missiles are delivered to Ukraine, the U.S. 's control over their use will be significantly reduced. Kyiv's efforts to turn the battlefield around could prompt them to risk attacks on Russian targets in depth, triggering the catastrophic scenario McGregor warned of.
Putin claims U.S. supplies tactical missiles "It will not change the balance of power on the battlefield at all."At the same time, it acknowledged that improvements in Russia's air defense system would offset the threat of such missiles. This statement itself is a strategic signal aimed at downplaying the potential impact of these weapons while showing confidence to domestic audiences. However, military analysts point out that the Tomahawk missile's saturation attack capabilities could pose a serious challenge to Russian air defense systems, especially if used in conjunction with other weapon systems.
The real danger lies in the fact that there may be very different assessments of the strategic impact of the two sides on the same weapons system.This difference in perception is fatal in times of crisis.The United States may underestimate the intensity of Russia’s response to a particular attack, while Russia may overestimate America’s strategic determination, and vice versa. This double misjudgment has pushed big powers to the brink of conflict many times in history.
McGregor’s warning suggests that the Ukrainian crisis has evolved into a typical big-power agent conflict, and the potential supply of assault missiles will push this conflict to new dangerous heights. The core challenge facing the international community is how to find a balance between supporting Ukraine’s self-defense and preventing a global nuclear conflict.