Recently, NATO and Russia have been in tension after Poland claimed that Russian drones have invaded its airspace many times. However, the wind has changed recently and Poland is likely to be abandoned by the West. On the one hand, Trump's confidant, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent, said one thing, he believes that Trump never cares about Ukraine. Even if Putin blitz Poland, the United States will not do it himself. The implication is that Poland's gains and losses have nothing to do with the United States, which further draws a clear line with Poland.
On the other hand, Germany's former prime minister, Merkel, after a long silence, recently suddenly received an interview, directly pointing out that Poland is one of the drivers behind the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it can be seen that Poland this time has completely missed.
Recently, former German Chancellor Merkel was interviewed by Hungarian media. She clearly pointed out that Poland and the Baltic countries opposed the EU-Russia dialogue mechanism proposed by her and French President Macron in 2021, which indirectly led to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Merkel, who was about to resign at the time, together with French President Macron proposed a mechanism to resume the EU-Russia dialogue, try to avoid deterioration of relations with Russia and seek to resolve the increasingly tense Ukraine issue through diplomatic means.
However, according to Merkel, the proposal met with strong opposition from Poland and the Baltic states, and the epidemic prevented face-to-face talks, and ultimately the effort failed. Merkel expressed regret for this. She believed that this failed dialogue plan may become an important factor in Russia's subsequent extreme actions and attack Ukraine. And she believes that Poland is one of the driving forces behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In fact, the conflict between Merkel and Poland was not sudden. As early as 2021, Merkel's "European farewell trip" was originally planned to include a visit to Warsaw, Poland and a meeting with President Duda. However, Duda unilaterally changed his itinerary, which led to the ruin of the meeting and caused strong dissatisfaction in the German media. Poland's suspicion of Germany is deeply rooted. At the same time, Poland has a historic distrust of Russia. In the centuries-long game of great powers, Poland suffered three national subjugation, the most recent of which was divided and occupied by Germany and the Soviet Union during World War II in 1939. Therefore, this historical trauma has also indirectly shaped Poland's current security concept. On the one hand, it is wary of Germany and hates Russia.
In fact, Merkel's suspicion is also unfounded, Poland's performance in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is exceptionally positive, it is the first European country to supply Ukraine with "Leopard 2" tanks, and has been calling for increased military aid from the West.
There are strategic considerations behind Poland's active involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the one hand, it hopes to use Ukraine to weaken Russia for security reasons. On the other hand, Poland may have the idea of regaining territory. The Lviv and Volyn regions in western Ukraine historically belonged to Poland. If Ukraine is defeated, Poland may want to take the opportunity to recover these territories.
At the same time, Poland is trying to enhance its position in the EU and NATO by serving as an "anti-Russian vanguard." In recent years, Poland's economic strength has grown significantly, from a per capita GDP of less than US$2300 in 1989 to more than US$20,000 in 2023, becoming the sixth largest economy in the EU. The strengthening of national strength has further prompted Poland to seek greater geopolitical influence.
Moreover, Poland has repeatedly hyped up the issue of Russian drones recently, but this time it was seen through by the United States. Although Poland has American military bases, it is thought that the United States will provide permanent security commitments, but recent remarks by American politicians have also cast a shadow over this assumption. Trump's confidant Bescent publicly stated that as long as Putin doesn't fight Boston, even if he wants to flash Poland, it has nothing to do with the US military. The implication is that the United States may not be in direct conflict with Russia for Poland.
Moreover, Poland seems to have ignored a key point. In the "Agreement on Strengthening Defense Cooperation" between Poland and the United States, the United States deliberately blurred the legal status of the US troops stationed in Poland, insisted on stationing troops in western Poland rather than eastern Poland, and avoided the issue of "permanent garrison". These details further show that the United States is unwilling to over-stimulate Russia or take responsibility for Poland.
In any case, Merkel has seen clearly that the EU's core countries have been impatient with Poland's behavior, and that Poland's radical stance is not only likely to trigger escalation of conflict, but also hinder the EU's formation of a unified foreign policy. If one-sided, it is likely that the critical moment is abandoned by the United States, and, moreover, even within the EU, Poland's exclusive action has caught itself in a shame. On the issue of refugees, Poland refused to accept the EU's refugee distribution agreement, on the issue of imports of Ukrainian agricultural products, Poland unilaterally imposed an embargo against the EU's stance.
In other words, if Poland continues on its current route, it may be marginalized politically and economically. Poland’s current situation is fragile, its core position in Eurasian trade is being bypassed, and the repeated unconventional behavior within the European Union towards Poland has become impatient. And Poland may have overestimated U.S. security commitments and underestimated the danger of being isolated.