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A report from the U.S. government made Tokyo anxiously realize that its position on the Washington chessboard may be changing. Seeing that Trump was going to shake hands with China and Russia, the Japanese media couldn't sit still and voiced a reminder to the Japanese government.
Strategic shift
In October 2025, after the contents of the new draft "National Defense Strategy" to be released by the U.S. government were disclosed by Japanese media, it quickly triggered a chain reaction in Japanese political circles.
The document, dubbed by the Japan Economic News as "changing the Indian-Pacific chess station", clearly put forward that the United States will adjust the global strategic focus, shift from previously targeting China-Russia's "front-end deterrence" to "home and western hemisphere security priority", the core defense area locks the mainland of Southern North America, the East Pacific and the western Atlantic seas, and New Zealand is included in the secondary defense circle.
According to the summary of the draft obtained by the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs through the embassy in the United States, the United States plans to reduce the number of naval vessels deployed in the Asia-Pacific region from the existing 58 to 40 in the next two years, and at the same time reduce the deployment scale of Aegis destroyers stationed in Japan.
What makes Tokyo even more uneasy is that the frequency of expression of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" in the draft has dropped by 62% compared with the previous version, and has been replaced by new expressions such as "Strengthening of the Western Hemisphere Partnership."
An anonymous official of Japan's Defense Ministry revealed to the Yomiuri Shimbun that this is the lowest attention to Asia-Pacific in US strategic documents since Trump first took office in 2017.
In February 2025, Trump and Putin had a 90-minute phone call with heads of state. The Kremlin clearly mentioned in its statement that "the two sides have reached multiple consensuses to resume cooperation." Putin even openly agreed with Trump that "now is the time for the United States and Russia to cooperate."
During the same period, the Chinese-Russian heads of state held a video meeting to reach a consensus on “maintaining a consistent pace in relations with the United States”, and the Russian side made it clear that it “prioritizes deepening strategic partnership with China”.
From confrontation deadlock to dialogue restart
The process of détente towards Russia promoted by the Trump administration will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2025. Following the phone call from the heads of state in February, high-level representatives of the United States and Russia held four-and-a-half-hour closed-door talks in Saudi Arabia in March, focusing on negotiating a ceasefire plan for the Ukraine conflict and the reconstruction of the European security framework.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Haggis said at a meeting at NATO headquarters that the United States “cannot focus on European security” and should focus on domestic defense and “war prevention” in the Pacific.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Japan has followed the U.S. to impose 11 rounds of sanctions on Russia, including freezing Russian central bank assets in Japan, banning exports of high-end semiconductor equipment, and even proactively disrupting negotiations with Russia on the four northern islands.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan has been optimistic that through strengthening coordination with the United States, Russian concessions on territorial issues can be obtained in the post-war reconstruction. but after the US-Russian relations were frozen, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs made it clear that "it will not discuss territorial issues in the context of sanctions", leaving Japan's sanctions code instantly invalid.
Furthermore, Japan is cautious that the US-Russia indirect coordination in the Asia-Pacific is at the beginning of the present.
The Russian Pacific Fleet and the U.S. Third Fleet conducted a rare "non-confrontational communications exercise" in the Bering Strait in September. Although both sides called the move "to avoid misjudgment," the Asahi Shimbun commented that this was the end of the Cold War. The first official interaction between the United States and Russia in the Asia-Pacific waters completely broke the idea of a "encirclement network against Russia" built by Japan.
Interacting with America.
Although Trump announced during the 2024 election that "a 60% tariff will be imposed on China," he did not immediately promote radical trade policies after taking office, but instead sought communication with China through multilateral occasions.
During the G20 summit in September 2025, the Sino-U.S. economic and trade team held informal talks to exchange views on topics such as imports of agricultural products and intellectual property protection, this is the first high-level economic and trade contact between the two sides since 2023.
In its response, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that "dialogue and negotiation are the only feasible way to resolve differences", and held a "happy communication" attitude towards the interaction between the United States and Russia. When asked whether to participate in the mediation of the US-Russia summit, it only responded with "no information available" and did not deny it.
This openness gesture responds to U.S. strategic contraction, leaving Japan’s long-dependent “Sino-American confrontation dividend” at risk of disappearing.
Japan's Minister of Economic Regeneration Ryo Akasawa admitted frankly at a congressional hearing that Japan "lacks effective means to counter the United States." U.S. trade statistics in 2024 show that Japan is only the sixth largest export target of the United States, and its economy is less than one-fifth of the size of the European Union. Even if retaliatory tariffs are implemented, it will be difficult to have a substantial impact on the United States.
Previously to maintain the US-Japanese relationship, Japan has made many compromises: in the tariff negotiations in April 1925, Japan accepted the United States to impose 15% tariffs on automobiles, and赤泽亮 is even wearing the "Make America Great Again" hat in front of Trump, mocking itself "the lowest among the lowest."
Japanese trouble
Since Shinzo Abe put forward "active pacifism" in 2015, Japan has strengthened its regional influence through three major paths: militarily, promoting the revision of the pacifist constitution, increasing the defense budget from 1% of GDP to 2.1% in 2025, purchasing 147 F-35 fighter jets and deploying land-based Aegis systems.
Build the "Japan, US, Australia and India" Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) mechanism, promote the signing of the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework"(IPEF), and invest a total of more than US$30 billion by competing for influence in infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia.
After the United States planned to reduce the size of the US military stationed in Japan, the Japanese Self-Defense Force's "forward deployment" capabilities immediately exposed shortcomings: the Ministry of Defense estimates showed that if the US Seventh Fleet reduced three Aegis ships, Japan's response to the "Southwest Islands Emergency" will be extended from 4 hours to 12 hours.
The QUAD mechanism has also been loosened. Australia has announced that it will send representatives to the Asia-Pacific Security Forum hosted by China, while India has slowed down its joint military exercise plan with Japan, bringing the Japan-led "check and balance circle against China" to the verge of collapse.
The Japan Economic News issued a September 23 warning that “the anti-Trump siege concept has become blurred” and called on the government to “re-evaluate its dependence on the United States”.
"Yomiuri Shimbun" sorted out Japan's strategic investments in recent years, pointing out that investment in the fields of infrastructure construction in the Southwest Islands and new missile research and development alone has exceeded 8 trillion yen. If the United States withdraws from the strategy, these investments will become "sunk costs".
The Japanese Prime Minister's official residence has urgently held three "strategic evaluation meetings" to discuss whether to suspend the purchase of some American weapons and shift funds to independent defense capacity building. However, many officials admitted that "it is difficult to change dependence on the United States in the short term".
conclusion
The Japanese Economist weekly has pointed out that Trump's "America Priority" is the essence of the "America Withdrawal" strategy, the core of which is to mitigate domestic contradictions by narrowing global hegemony.
In the future, if Japan wants to avoid "failing years of plan", it needs to find a new balance between coordination with the United States and independent development.
However, under the current strength structure, achieving this balance is by no means easy-over-reliance on the United States will continue to be passively under pressure, while seeking autonomy will face a dual lack of ability and trust.
Official sources and links
Japanese media: Japanese without cards can be forced into U.S. arms. 2025-09-23.
http://m.toutiao.com/group/7553124471150871059/?upstream_biz=doubaoChina Net. What is the calculation for the United States and Japan to create a "new golden age"? 2025-02-10.
http://m.toutiao.com/group/7469587179472159284/?upstream_biz=doubaoRefer to the news network. Japanese media: US "Exit Strategy" enters version 2.0. 2018-04-23.
http://m.toutiao.com/group/6547518248378696196/?upstream_biz=doubao