The situation in the Russian-Ukrainian war is also an emergency, and it is Russia's most concerned thing - the US decision to assist Ukraine with long-range "Tax" missiles, this time even Russian President Putin personally, has not been able to let the US side change the decision.
Early in the morning of October 7, the Russian TASS and the American Avia website almost simultaneously revealed the big news – US President Trump has planned to deliver the “Tax” long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Putin warned several times before that the United States would completely collapse Russia-US relations by doing so, but the Trump administration did not care at all and directly ruined the Kremlin's previous calculations.
To find out the ins and outs of this matter, we have to start from September 28th. That day, U.S. Vice President Vance appeared on Fox News and made it clear for the first time in an exclusive interview: The United States is thinking about getting NATO's European member states to come forward and give Ukraine Tomahawk missiles that can reach Moscow.
As soon as this came out, the world exploded-the maximum range of the Tomahawk missile can exceed 2000 kilometers. If Ukraine obtains it, all core targets west of Russia's Ural Mountains will be exposed to threats.
The Russian side protests just started, the Trump administration did not rush to respond, but instead played the "warm water cooking frog" trick. on October 2, Trump in New York closed the door with the Ukrainian President Zelensky talked second, Zelensky in front of the question of the "war-ax" missile.
Six days later, Trump suddenly said at the White House press conference that "some decision has been made", but added a condition: Ukraine must clearly say how these missiles will be used, where they will be deployed and what targets will be hit.
When Trump announced the decision, he also specifically stressed that he does not want to let the situation out of control, to engage in a "target verification mechanism". say, this is the practice of wanting to be a judge and want to be an athlete, is testing the bottom line of Russia.
The US "Washington Post" later analyzed thoroughly: the Trump administration wants to take the "Tax" missile as a code, forcing Russia to make concessions at the negotiating table, while also showing "American leadership" in front of European allies.
On October 5, in an interview with Russian media, he made it clear: If the United States really gives the "Tomahawk" missile to Ukraine, Russia-US relations will "enter a stage of qualitative change" and may turn into a "full-scale confrontation." He also added that Russia has long been prepared, not only to strengthen its air defense system, but also to come up with "reciprocal countermeasures."
Trump just announced the decision that the Russian military had launched a massive airstrike on Ukraine on the same day, deploying more than 50 missiles - including "high-speed" hypersonic missiles - plus more than 500 drones, targeting energy facilities in the western cities of Lviv and Odessa, as well as NATO's arms transfer stations to Ukraine.
This is to rely on the approach of "conquering and then talking" to send a clear signal to Ukraine and the West: If you dare to take military adventures, you will have to pay a high price.
On the one hand, the Russian military has deployed the S-400 and S-500 air defense systems in the vicinity of Moscow, and has also enabled electronic warfare forces to intensify practical combat training;
On the other hand, Russian military companies have increased the deployment speed of the "Murmansk-BN" long-range electronic warfare system-this system can interfere with GPS signals within 5000 kilometers and is a fatal threat to the "Tomahawk" missile that relies on satellite navigation.
On the surface, Ukraine got the "Tax" missile is a win, but it really needs to use, a lot of trouble.The first trouble is that there is no place to launch the "Tax" missile generally has to be launched by military ships or submarines, but the Ukrainian navy was almost left behind at the beginning of the conflict.
Although the United States has thought about providing land-based launch systems, such as the "Difeng" container launcher, this equipment requires complex technical modifications and personnel training, and it is impossible to form combat effectiveness in a short period of time.
Then no one will use it. The Ukrainian army has never touched a Tomahawk missile before. Whether it is a fire control system, target planning software, or communication protocol, it has to learn it from scratch. More importantly, the use of Tomahawk missiles is inseparable from NATO's intelligence support. From finding targets to planning missile routes, U.S. military personnel have to follow suit. This matter will only become more complicated and risky.
There is also an unavoidable pit: no money can withstand. a "war ax" missile is more than $ 1.5 million, if you use 50 missiles a month, the light missile money is $ 900 million a year.
The United States wants the European countries to pay, but the EU's internal disagreement over "unfinished Ukraine" is growing, Poland, Hungary these countries have made clear that they are not in favor of further expansion of aid to Ukraine.
On the one hand, the United States is forcing European countries to spend money to buy missiles, then transferred to Ukraine, obviously want to throw the cost of war on its allies.
German Prime Minister Scholz said very straightforwardly that Germany would not go with any “direct military intervention” and French President Macron also called for a “multi-party negotiation” to resolve the conflict.
On the other hand, the differences in NATO on "whether or not to upgrade arms aid" are also on the table. Poland, the Baltic three countries, these Eastern European countries, especially supporting Ukraine's "tacks" missiles, feel that this is the key to stop Russia's expansion; but Germany, France, these Western European countries are very afraid, fear that this will force Russia to use nuclear weapons, advocating diplomatic solution of the problem.
This “new Europe” and “old Europe” dry-down situation is just a bit undermining NATO’s cohesion.
What is even more troublesome is that the United States has directly shaken the rules of international arms control. The Missile and Technology Control Regime (MTCR) clearly stipulates that the range of missiles cannot exceed 300 kilometers, and the Tomahawk missile far exceeds the standard. This is an explicit violation of the rules.
Once this "Pandora's Box" is opened, countries such as India and Iran may use this as an excuse to speed up the development of long-range missiles, and then the whole world will fall into an arms race.
Once the "Tomahawk" missile is involved, the way Russia and Ukraine fight will change. Previously, the two sides mainly spent time on the front lines such as Donbas and Zaporozhye, either digging positions to confront each other or using drones to launch attacks. But with the Tomahawk missile, Ukraine was able to hit targets deep in Russia, and the focus of the war began to shift towards Russia.
This change forced Russia to relocate again.The Russian army has no option but to withdraw some of its sharp forces from the front to strengthen the defense of the core cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg.At the same time, the Russian army has also increased the strike on the energy facilities in the west of Ukraine, trying to reduce the Ukrainian military's operational capabilities by using "water disruption".
Although this method of "relying on attack to prevent risks" can temporarily relieve pressure, it also clearly exposes the problem of insufficient Russian troops.
Source of information:
Putin: If the U.S. provides Ukraine with “strike axis” missiles, it will undermine Russian-US relations
Trump: “Some decision has been made” on providing Ukraine with “Taxic” missiles