Hello all of you friends.
This morning, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that the Chinese prime minister will make a three-day visit to North Korea on Thursday (9 October) and participate in the celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling party.
This situation itself is theoretically normal, but it attracted attention because of the recent visit of North Korea's foreign minister to China.
In addition, at the end of this month, China may go to South Korea to attend the APEC summit, during which it will not only hold talks with US President Trump, but also hold its first meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung.
However, the relationship between North Korea and South Korea has been tense recently. Repeated statements made by North Korean leaders show that, first, North Korea has given up the goal of national reunification with South Korea; Second, North Korea will regard South Korea as an enemy for a long time, which is obviously strategic different from North Korea's consistent policy towards South Korea.
So on September 3, North Korean leaders attended a military parade in China, and in the following weeks, North Korean foreign ministers visited Beijing individually and met with Chinese foreign ministers and prime ministers.
North Korea's foreign minister visited the country twice in a month, the first time accompanied by North Korean leaders, and the second time was dedicated to discussing the affairs between the DPRK and China.
At that time, it was rumored that North Korea hoped that China would not see Li Zai-ming.I cannot fully confirm these rumors, but they provide a perspective. Because North Korea has made it clear that it will no longer pursue reunification with South Korea and regards South Korea as its enemy.
If the rumors are true, this is undoubtedly a big test for China's foreign policy and the overall international strategy.
However, China and North Korea are friendly neighbors after all. For example, whether it was a decade ago when the ruling party celebrated its 70th anniversary or earlier, China sent a high-level visit to North Korea.
Therefore, in theory, China's attitude towards North Korea is friendly. North Korea also paid a return visit during this 93 military parade.
Frankly speaking, whether it is North Korea, Russia or China, their respective international strategic environments are beginning to become tense. Therefore, it is necessary for the three countries to engage in a certain degree of cooperation, which I understand is strategic, such as the relationship between China and Russia being back-to-back and shoulder-to-shoulder.
But if you reach a degree of exclusion, that you are good with me, you can't be good with others. for example, you are good with North Korea, you can't be good with Korea, this becomes his exclusion.
Therefore, this is actually a test, or even a challenge, for China's diplomacy.
This time, China sent its prime minister to North Korea in person, which is undoubtedly a high degree of attention and specification compared with ten years ago. Therefore, North Korea cannot refute it now. However, we do not promise not to go to South Korea, not to see Lee Jae-ming, or even to develop relations with South Korea.
Therefore, although we were not fully aware of the visit of the North Korean Foreign Minister to China in the past few weeks, judging from the external structure and characteristic framework, this visit obviously had a specific purpose.
In this regard, it should be said that China is handling it very well, and the China premier has made two foreign visits in more than a month. First, he went to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly some time ago, and then he was about to go to North Korea to handle diplomatic affairs.
At the same time, this also reflects China’s lack of illusions about Western countries in the context of the current complex international situation, but on the other hand, we will not ignore cooperation with Western countries and their allies, economically and technologically more developed countries and regions, including relations with South Korea.
Compared to North Korea, South Korea can’t be said to be more important to China, or at least as important.In fact, I personally think that South Korea is of greater significance to China in terms of economy. Therefore, it is particularly important for China to deal with this balance.
At the same time, compared with the current international situation during the Six-Party Talks 20 years ago, the international environment in which China is located is completely different from the past.
Compared to the period of the six-party talks in the early 2000s, when China had a good relationship with the United States, and the Western countries had a friendly policy towards China, China and the U.S. strategies at the time were consistent and jointly persuaded North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.
So, this situation has changed. Today, China's relations with Western countries led by the United States are in a state of tension, which contains many objective and subjective factors.
At the same time, for this reason, we need to maintain relatively close strategic cooperation with Russia, North Korea, and Iran, sending a strategic signal to the West that we are not isolated and helpless, but that we have the support of our strategic partners.
But at the same time, should we consider China's overall national development, including the long-term development of the economy, and go hand in hand with these countries?
Some hawkish think tanks in the United States have proposed the concept of "CRINK" combination, namely China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. I raised major doubts about this. This narrative system, which bundles the four countries of China, Iran, North Korea and Russia, if left to develop, will not only shape a mode of thinking and strategic consensus, but may also evolve into strategies and actions, which is undoubtedly very dangerous.
Therefore, China now needs to find a balance between the two sides of black and white, and this balance is intended to get the code in both sides.China’s greatest key is China itself – a great power, a vibrant economic system, and a future-filled civilization.
Compared to a decade ago, the level of officials that China sent to North Korea was obviously much higher.As for the so-called rumors that China went to North Korea instead of South Korea, it was obviously much more wanted, and China's way of handling it was very good.
I think that if China continues along this path, it can undoubtedly go out of a strategic path internationally.At the moment, this may be more of a strategy, but we also hope that we will go out of a path of light and light on a strategic level in the future.
This has a significant impact not only on China's current economic and prosperous development, but also has a positive meaning for China's national transport in the long run.