A report from the U.S. government made Tokyo anxiously realize that its position on the Washington chessboard may be changing. Seeing that Trump was going to shake hands with China and Russia, the Japanese media couldn't sit still and voiced a reminder to the Japanese government.
Recently, according to Japanese media reports, the new U.S. Defense Strategy is expected to be released this month, and a major adjustment of the document is that the U.S. strategic focus will shift from shaking up China and Russia to U.S. domestic and western hemisphere security, which covers vast regions such as the Southern North American continent, New Zealand, the East Pacific and the Western Atlantic.
This policy has undoubtedly raised deep concerns among traditional U.S. allies, with Japanese media first expressing anxiety, and the Japanese Daily Asia warned that this strategic shrinkage would have "serious consequences" for Japan.
Does the US military stationed in Japan want to upgrade? It's yellow! This "safety umbrella" broke a hole first
Over the years, Japan has dared to be militarily overwhelmed, the core of which is the US military in Japan with more than 50,000 horses and 15 military bases supporting it.
In July last year, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin also guaranteed that he would upgrade the U.S. military command in Japan to a "Joint Forces Command" and work with the "Integrated Warfare Command" that Japan was just about to establish. At that time, he still boasted that it was "the most powerful change in the US-Japan alliance in the past 70 years."
At that time, Japan was not good, and I felt that after the break of the wrist with China, the U.S. military could directly deploy command in Japanese territory, and the sense of security was flooding out.
The Pentagon has spoken out to stop the plans for the expansion of the U.S. military in Japan, because this can save $1.1 billion.
To know, now the U.S. military command department in Japan also managed the logistics trouble in the base, really happened, but had to rely on the Indian-Pacific command department in Hawaii, which would have been upgraded to solve the time gap and coordination trouble, and the result was cut off.
What's even worse is that the United States even wants to abandon its position as Supreme Commander of NATO's Allied Forces in Europe, which makes Japan have to mutter: If even its European allies are ignored, if something really goes wrong in the future, can the United States work hard for Japan?
Japan's Ministry of Defense had already established the "Integrated Combat Command" on March 24, waiting to form a team with the new US military command. Now that the US military has lost the chain, its own command center has become a "one-man show without a partner."
Worse is Trump’s attitude toward allies – he had previously said “NATO countries don’t pay money, don’t want to let the United States help with defense”, Japan spends so much military expenses every year to “support” the U.S. military, and now even the most basic command upgrades can’t fall, this “safety umbrella” hole is growing.
Spend 8 trillion yen to buy weapons? I'm afraid it's going to be a decoration! No money and no backer
Japan’s defence budget for 2025 jumped directly to 8.7 trillion yen over the past two years, setting an unprecedented record.
Where is all this money spent? They are all rushing to "reach other people's homeland": 16.9 billion yen to buy upgraded anti-ship missiles, 58.5 billion yen to build hypersonic missiles, and 283.2 billion yen to build a "satellite constellation" as "eyes". Even to change the "Izumo" class helicopter carrier into a real aircraft carrier, just to break the rule of "only defense".
But these thoughts have to rely on the United States "heads", but also have to rely on the United States. to say that Japan wants to buy 400 "Tax" cruise missiles, the technology is all in the hands of the United States; the engine and guidance system of the high-speed missiles, also have to the United States to give the technical drawings.
Now Trump has a thought to ease relations with China – for a moment to say tariffs against China “will not be so high”, for a moment to “talk well”, even China’s rare-earth controls have made the Pentagon panic (after all, 70% of F-35 fighter jets are rare-earth from China), who dares to help Japan to develop weapons that “can hit China’s mainland”?
Japan intends to raise corporate taxes and tobacco taxes in 2026 to compile military spending, but as the U.S. military shrinks, these weapons instantly become the "orphans" of the system without support.
For example, long-range missiles that cost a lot of money can't be hit without the intelligence support and satellite navigation of the US military; The "satellite constellation" has just started, but the United States is going to lay off the missile defense sub-command of the Space Command, without even a technical reference.
The Japanese Defense Ministry itself admitted that without the help of the U.S. military, these new weapons "had to be half-discounted" and the 8 trillion yen struck in fear of flooding.
Is the four-party mechanism going to break up? The geopolitical chess game is directly in chaos! Japan became a loner
Japan has been trying to speak in the Asia-Pacific for years, relying on the four-party security dialogue mechanism led by the United States (US-Japan-India). thanks to this mechanism, Japan can use the name of the United States to carry out military exercises with India and Australia, and can also brush up on the South China Sea issue.
The Australian media have made it clear that the Quartet mechanism is "dying" now, and Trump doesn't even want to go to the leaders' summit to be held in India. Why? Because the United States wants "America first" and doesn't want to let its allies "hitchhike" anymore.
Previously, the four countries also shouted to cooperate in vaccines and tackle climate issues, and now the Trump administration has cut off IMO funding, and the health minister is still a child who does not believe in vaccines.
More tragic is that the United States has also raised tariff contradictions with India, and Modi rushed directly to the SCO summit, clearly not wanting to join the United States anymore.
Without the United States taking the lead, Japan suddenly became a "loner" in the Asia-Pacific region. If they want to get Australia to engage in joint cruises, they are busy doing business with China; if they want to find India to discuss how to deal with China, India is secretly buying Russian oil.
Daily Asia is eager to say that "the United States wants to redefine the Asian defense line", in fact, it is afraid that the United States will kick Japan out of the chessboard - previously relying on the United States as the "leading big brother" can trample on the benefits of geography, now big brother to return to the home of America, Japan those "wants to say in the Indo-Pacific" fantasies, can only be blurred.
After all, Japan’s “big deal” over the years is all a piece of wood on the U.S. military car. Trump wants to save money, to relax with China and Russia, a “war vehicle engine” is taken away, Japan’s security dependence, military ambition, geographical layout all collapsed.
The anxiety of Nikkei Asia is not blind worry. After all, the dream supported by others always breaks very quickly.
Source of information:
The microscope network.