The new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for two full years. According to RIA Novosti, Netanyahu's government has launched attacks on targets in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Qatar, Palestine and even border posts in Egypt.
In devastated Gaza, the fighting has not subsided, but has intensified: buildings have been blown to the ground, more than 67,000 Gazans have been killed, and millions of people have been put into desperate situations. The disaster scene in Gaza has aroused global public outrage. Even Western countries that have always supported Israel, such as Britain and France, have set off a wave of "recognizing the Palestinian state" despite pressure from the United States and Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly admitted that Israel is isolated.
Wang Jin, director of the Center for Israel Studies at Northwestern University, analyzed to Red Star News that how long this conflict can end mainly depends on the conditions given by the international community after mediation and Israel's domestic attitude. "Israel has two main demands: one is to ask Hamas to return detained Israeli personnel; the other is to ask Hamas to not play any role in the future governance mechanism of the Gaza Strip in the medium and long term. This also means Hamas wants to achieve military and political self-disintegration."
All because of Netanyahu? expert: Everyone on the same
At the end of September, the U.S. government released a “20-point plan” on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, with Israel gradually withdrawing its troops through the exchange of detainees, implementing international supervision and achieving the de-militarization and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, including the release of all detainees by Hamas within 72 hours of Israel’s public acceptance of the plan, the establishment of a temporary governance mechanism, transitional management by the Committee of Technical Experts before the reform of the Palestinian National Authority, and the acceptance of the “Peace Council” supervision by the international community; and Hamas and its factions must not participate in any form in the governance of Gaza.
At present, although Hamas has clearly accepted some contents of the "20-point plan", such as agreeing to release all Israeli detainees and hand over their remains under the framework of the plan, it has avoided sensitive issues such as disarmament.
According to CCTV News, on October 6, local time, Israeli and Hamas delegations began indirect talks on a new round of Gaza ceasefire agreement in the coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh in northern Egypt. On October 7, local time, after concluding indirect negotiations with Israel, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) delegation stated that the talks had made positive progress, but Israel's continued bombing of the Gaza Strip had an impact on the release of Israel's detainees. The detained people "pose a challenge."
Wang said that Israel’s attitude toward the conflict in Pakistan, as an initiative on the battlefield, is a very important key point in determining the future of the situation in Pakistan, and that it is only possible for Israel to accept the relevant ceasefire agreement if the two demands are met at the same time. Netanyahu said that if Hamas released detained people and dropped weapons, the conflict could end. However, from the current situation, Hamas will not drop weapons and Netanyahu will not step back.
After Israel launched military operations in Gaza City, large-scale rallies and demonstrations broke out in many places in Israel on the evening of September 6, demanding that the Netanyahu government and Hamas reach a ceasefire agreement as soon as possible, release all detainees and end the conflict.
On the evening of October 4, more than 100,000 Israeli protesters gathered in Tel Aviv to demand that the Israeli government reach an immediate agreement. According to reports, the protest was the largest in months. Speaking on stage, prominent Israeli actor Liol Ashkenazi urged Netanyahu to "at least not interfere with Trump reaching a deal and ending the war." In the eyes of these Israelis, Netanyahu's attempt to remain in power is the reason why the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues.
Some analysts say Netanyahu's ruling coalition relies on far-right parties, and these parties hope to continue the conflict until Hamas is completely eliminated and Palestinians are relocated to other countries on a large scale. For Netanyahu, if he loses the position of prime minister, he may face long-standing accusations of corruption.
Wang Jin believes that Netanyahu may indeed be doing it for his own political power. But he also pointed out that in the current context of Israeli society, even if Netanyahu steps down, the new leader's attitude towards the Gaza Strip will be very tough after taking office. "They may have differences in technical issues such as attack focus and attack intensity. But no matter who comes to power, the principled attitude of Israeli leaders towards the Gaza issue (that is, continue to adopt tough military measures against Gaza) will not change." Wang Jin emphasized.
Wang Jin explained that the current Israeli society is not a normal state of relative left-wing balance and that in recent years, especially after the outbreak of the conflict with Israel, Israel’s social structure and political perspective has changed enormously. Israel is now in fact a country dominated by far-right and far-right political views. The NPR also noted last year that now Israel is a country dominated by far-right views. Wang Jin believes that Netanyahu is only a relatively faithful politician who fulfils far-right and far-right views.
It's a matter of "existential matter". Will Hamas lay down its arms?
Based on Hamas’ current statements, Israel’s demands for the “release of detainees” are not too difficult to fulfill.According to China News Agency in April, Egyptian security sources revealed that Hamas agreed to release all Israeli detainees in exchange for a five-year ceasefire.
As for Israel’s second demand (i.e. requiring Hamas to dismantle itself militarily and politically) it is difficult to. Some analysts believe that giving Hamas down arms basically doesn’t work. A person close to Hamas has revealed that whether Hamas will disarm is considered a “survival issue.”
Even if Hamas now agreed to disarm, it would be difficult for the outside world to verify its authenticity.In addition, even if Hamas actually disarms, new armed groups could emerge and become “the new Hamas.”
Since the outbreak of this round of conflict, Israel has been touching multiple red lines over and over again. In March 2024, the military continued to advance its military operations in the southernmost city of Gaza, Rafah, despite U.S. warnings. U.S. President Biden has publicly warned that attacking Rafah would be a “red line”. In June this year, when Israel launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran’s Foreign Minister Al-Araqi warned that Israel “crossed the new red line.”
Today's United States has fallen into a dilemma. Wang Jin analyzed: "On the one hand, the United States needs to support Israel. But on the other hand, aggressive Israel has affected the image of the United States in the Middle East, and objectively interfered with the actual cooperative relationship between the United States and Arab countries." After Israel attacked Qatar, Netanyahu apologized to Qatar in a tripartite telephone conversation with Trump and Qatar Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed. At the same time, Trump also signed an executive order promising that the United States would guarantee Qatar's security.
Wang Jin analyzed that "the United States hopes to suspend the conflict by proposing a ceasefire plan." However,"whether it is the '20-point plan' or other mediation plans proposed by the United States, it will ultimately be difficult to achieve." Wang Jin said that it is difficult to meet the conditions of Israel and Hamas at the same time, and the United States is expected to increase its mediation efforts. "But in the end, whether mediation can succeed remains a big question mark."
Red Star journalist Li Jinrui
Edited by Jan.
Audit He Xianju