Preliminary
Three days have passed since the 80th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean Labour Party, and recently there has been a news that has caused a lot of people to discuss.
Russia was sure that Medvedev was going, but Putin had no intention of coming; but China used a "big move"! The delegation led by a high-level team was sent directly. Not only did the specifications far exceed everyone's expectations, but it even had to stay in North Korea for three days, so it paid special attention to it at first glance.
On the one hand, the absence that could be thought of early on, on the other hand, the "over-expected investment", behind this parade, the interaction between China, Russia, and the DPRK ultimately hides what way?
Let's first clarify the key information of this military parade
In order to understand the actions of these parties, we must first tune the timeline and the details.
The military parade in North Korea on October 10 was said by outsiders to be "the highest-profile one in history."
From the queue training exposed in advance, the debugging of the movable launcher, to the specially repaired VIP stands, there is the meaning of "doing something big" everywhere.
Moreover, before the military parade, China and North Korea had long laid a "foreshadowing": in early September, North Korean leaders came to China to participate in the military parade at the 93rd National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and at the end of the month, North Korean Foreign Minister Choi Shan-hui spent another four days visiting China. These two interactions have long laid a solid foundation for future cooperation.
China's move, sincerity is also evident: directly announced a high-level team visit to the DPRK, from 9 to 11, a total of 3 days, not only to see a parade, but also arranged a formal friendly visit.
It can be said that the lineup sent by China this time is basically the highest specification Pyongyang can currently win.
At the same time, compared with Putin’s visit to the DPRK last year, it was only 24 hours, and the “deepness” of China can be seen at a glance.
On the other side of Russia, it was decided to let Medvedev go, who is now the chairman of the United Russia Party and vice chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.。 But anyone who knows a little about Russian politics knows that he is no longer in the core decision-making circle of the Kremlin. He often speaks out on social media, and his influence is far worse than before.
Is China and Russia's attendance "going through the motions" or "coming for real"?
Looking at the attendance of China and Russia this time together, the difference is particularly obvious.
On the Russian side, Medvedev came more like following the usual process.Last year, Russia signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, Russia also sent ammunition and energy support to North Korea, this time it is considered to be "fulfillment of the agreement", but in terms of the specifications and the practical role that can play, more inclination to "go a walk", nothing more than expected surprises.
China is completely different. This time it is "proactively pushing forward."First, North Korea twice came to China to release the sincerity, then China sent a high-end delegation to return to visit, and agreed to "two-way march". and China is not only "face to face", the three-day journey means that you can talk a few rounds, not just go to compile a parade of fun.
This kind of "solid support" not only responds to the consensus of the leaders of China and North Korea to "do more strategic communication", but also meets North Korea's need to "play a leading role in regional diplomacy" and compares it with Russia's procedural participation.
Multi-dimensional value: what is it good for the three parties?
For North Korea, China can come, which is equivalent to having a “double guarantee.”
Diplomatically, with the support of a big country like China, the international weight of the military parade suddenly becomes heavy, which can help North Korea prove that it is not "ignored" under the pressure of the US-Japan-ROK alliance, but an important role in participating in regional affairs; In terms of security, compared with the single model of Russia and North Korea, which mainly relies on military cooperation, China's "political support + strategic communication" is more comprehensive and can help North Korea reduce many external risks.
For China, this “investment” can get three-fold benefits.
In terms of geographical layout, Sino-US relations are quite tense now, and the United States, Japan and South Korea are still strengthening their security alliance. By interacting with North Korea, China can better grasp the initiative in Northeast Asia and offset part of the influence of the US-Japan-South Korea alliance.
In the relationship between China and the DPRK, it is possible to push the traditional friendship one step further and become a "deeper strategic partner", and it is also more important to speak in regional affairs.
In terms of international image, China does not engage in alliances, but what it promised is definitely a word. It not only supports North Korea but does not directly get involved in conflicts, which just reflects the diplomatic thinking of "neutrality and pragmatism".
For the whole Northeast Asia region, this incident also broke the old pattern. The "military binding" between Russia and the DPRK and the "strategic cooperation" between China and the DPRK can complement each other, and it is no longer a security situation in which the United States, Japan and South Korea have the final say.
Moreover, China’s involvement has also pointed to new ways for other countries in the region, not necessarily to engage in military cooperation, and may push Northeast Asia from slowly thinking about confrontation to slowly turning to “sitting down and talking.”
See whether cooperation can be negotiated in the short term, and whether the relationship can be stable in the long term
In the short term, the main concern is whether China can discuss new cooperation during its visit to the DPRK.
For example, projects in the fields of economy, trade, science and technology or humanities, can these cooperations help North Korea with US-West sanctions, are the following points of view.
In the long run, what is more crucial is whether China-DPRK relations can "stabilize and come and go frequently".
Would this interaction not be the beginning of “regular strategic communication” between the two sides?
In fact, no matter how it develops, one thing is very clear: this is not a coincidence, but North East Asia is a signal from "a family that counts" to "all discuss together", and in the future this region's pattern will only be more and more diverse.
Summary
The diplomatic interaction behind this North Korean military parade is not only the superficial excitement of "who came and who didn't come", but also the deep echo of China and the DPRK at the strategic level.
This high-quality participation by China has both continued the traditional friendship, and added the positive energy of "more dialogue, more cooperation" to Northeast Asia, breaking the old mindset of "one comes up and think about confrontation".
In the future, if China-DPRK cooperation can be deepened, coupled with the interaction of other forces in the region, Northeast Asia may have more opportunities to "maintain stability through cooperation", which is not only beneficial to China and the DPRK, but also an important boost to the peaceful development of the whole region.
Source: China News Network
Today's New Media News