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Three days later, North Korea will hold a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers 'Party.

At present, it is known that former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev attended, and Vietnamese President Surin also confirmed his attendance. Today, China also announced the list. North Korea will become the most attractive focus after China's military parade in 1993.

Strategy behind Putin¡¯s absence

Putin¡¯s absence from the North Korean parade does not mean that Russia hasn¡¯t given a face, but that he is accompanied by the Chairman of the Party of Unification of Russia and Deputy Chairman of the Federal Security Council, Medvedev.

As a long-standing ally of Putin and one of the most powerful figures in Russian politics, his presence is not a process, but a deliberately arranged political move.

Since the signing of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in June last year, the bilateral relations have entered the model of a semi-military alliance.

The clause in the treaty, ¡°If one side is attacked, the other side will provide assistance,¡± is now being implemented through this parade of diplomacy.

North Korea has sent troops and equipment to the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. This is no secret, but an open tacit understanding. The interaction between Russia and North Korea is no longer concealed, but has chosen to appear openly on international occasions.

And Putin's absence seems regrettable, the reality is to cooperate with Medvedev to complete the "division of work", to keep a certain distance from the outside, to avoid being caught up by the West, and to communicate the strong support of North Korea through old warriors.

Putin is not absent, but intentionally ¡°give up¡± and sends a signal to the world through a North Korean parade: Russia-North Korea relations are heating up, but the method must be strategic.

This kind of "no one is present, no word is present" approach is also in line with Russia's current diplomatic rhythm in multi-line operations. It is not so much a "cold treatment" that Putin's absence is not so much a carefully designed arrangement.

North Korea's most valued guest of this parade, in fact, is not Russia, but China, in early September, Kim Jong-un personally appeared in Beijing to participate in the Chinese parade, released enough goodwill, the North Koreans are used to "gentle exchanges", this time also hopes China will return, the specifications can not be low.

Previously, North Korea's Foreign Minister, Tri Daiqi, visited China twice in a row and met with China's highest level, and the message was clear, and China did not disappoint North Korea.

Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a list of North Koreans attending parades, and the signals were strong enough. Originally, the outside world thought that China might send a representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or at the level of deputy ministers, but did not expect that high-level Chinese officials would personally go to North Korea.

The sign of this release is obvious, for North Korea, it is a ¡°diplomatic victory¡± and for China it is a ¡°strategic response.¡±

Against the backdrop of the current Sino-US game and the United States, Japan and South Korea grouping, the interaction between China and North Korea is not only an emotional expression, but also an initiative in the regional pattern.

China has sent a high-level delegation not only out of politeness, but also with deep consideration. On the one hand, it is a positive response to North Korea's "pro-China stance." On the other hand, it is also taking this opportunity to further consolidate China's strategic fulcrum in Northeast Asia under the trilateral framework of China, Russia and North Korea.

There is a diplomatic game between absence and attendance

If Putin¡¯s ¡°disappearance¡± was restraint, and Kim Jong-un had previously ¡°not gone¡± to the Red Square parade, it would be more like a tactical avoidance.

In May, the Russian Red Square Great Parade, Kim Jong-un was not personally present, but only in the Russian embassy in Pyongyang expressed congratulations in an ¡°unformal way¡±. This low-key handling avoids North Korea's over-exposure of its support for Russia and is also demonstrating its "limited pro-Russia" stance to the United States and the West.

But this time, North Korea took the initiative, invited one of the core figures of China and Russia to attend, and thus put his diplomatic position on the table.

China and Russia also responded to this invitation in their own ways. One sent out "sub-presidential" political leaders, and one personally from the top level, the amount is heavy enough.

This contrast, in fact, reflect the diplomatic rhythm and way of playing between the three countries, North Korea hopes to break the long-standing passive international situation by attracting China and Russia, Russia to use North Korea's hand to expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific direction, while China seeks a balance betweenining stability on the peninsula and expanding regional voice.

Putin's absence does not mean indifference. The presence of high-level Chinese officials is not a sudden decision. Behind this is the diplomatic calculation of the three countries 'respective interests, and it is also a proactive response to the current adjustment of the international landscape.

It still takes time to prove what this parade has brought, but the parade is not only a picture of the army walking through Kim Jong-un Square, but also the sound of a missile car whispering, and more importantly, who stood on the observatory.

Russian-DPRK interaction is close, China-DPRK relations are warming up, the strategic space of the United States and Japan is further compressed, originally thought to be isolated North Korea, is gradually opening up the situation under China-Russia's "acceptance", and this parade is only a puzzle of North Korea's diplomatic layout.

From a geopolitical point of view, this military parade forced the United States, Japan and South Korea to re-examine the security pattern of Northeast Asia, especially South Korea and Japan, which have long relied on the United States to provide "security umbrellas". However, seeing that China, Russia and the DPRK approach, their strategic anxiety is rising.

From the perspective of international games, North Korea is trying to no longer be just an "affiliation" of China and Russia, but to find higher autonomy between the two. Through this high-profile diplomacy, it is trying to break isolation and create initiative. This change cannot be ignored.

As far as China is concerned, stabilizing the Korean Peninsula and controlling North Korea's sentiment have always been a strategic priority. Sending the Prime Minister to visit is not only an affirmation of North Korea, but also a demonstration of China's role as a regional "stabilizer". China doesn't want to see the situation on the peninsula get out of control, but it also knows that if regional power is out of balance, it will no longer have the right to speak.

Putin's absence is a strategy, and the finale of China is an attitude. This military parade is not only a celebration of North Korea, but also a concentrated display of the triangular relationship between China, Russia and North Korea.

The pattern of Northeast Asia is quietly changing, and this military parade is only the prelude, and the real competition is probably just beginning. Finally, I wish the friendship between China and the DPRK lasting forever, and I also wish the DPRK military parade a complete success.

Reference information: Global network