Russian expert Andrei Gubin threw out a point of view, saying that China has to be wary of Mongolia, a neighboring country around it. This guy is getting closer and closer to the West, and maybe one day he will turn his face and betray China and Russia.
These words sound heart-piercing, but they need to be carefully analyzed. Mongolia is sandwiched between China and Russia. Its geographical location is extremely sensitive and economically relies heavily on China for coal exports. However, it has adopted a third neighbor policy and wants to mix more with the United States and Europe and rely less on China and Russia.
This matter is not groundless. As a professor of East Asian studies at Moscow State University, Gubin has been studying this field for many years. In his 2024 article, he directly named Mongolia and analyzed how it was gradually wooed by the West. The potential risks have a great impact on Sino-Russian cooperation.
First, let's talk about the basic situation of Mongolia. The country's land area is 156 million square kilometers, the population is only 3.3 million, the population is scarce, the resources are mainly coal, copper mines and rare earth, these things are good for Chinese industry. In 2022, according to the data, Mongolia's mining accounts for GDP of 25%, exports of more than 90% to China, especially coal, is basically the source of fuel for the northern factory of China. Politically, it is a parliamentary republic, after the collapse of the Soviet Union jumped out of the socialist camp, in 1992, the new constitution engaged in the multi-party and market economy, the past three decades is still stable, there is nothing big turmoil. But the economic structure is single, resistant to risk,
Mongolian and Chinese-Russian relations had been steady. In history, the Mongolian Empire of the 13th century during the period of Genghis Khan, later divided, foreign Mongolia was Chinese territory during the Qing Dynasty, independence after the death of Qing in 1911, but only in 1945 was formally established, before the Soviet satellite state. After the Soviet Union, Mongolia began to play independently, but geographically still depended on China and Russia. China is its largest trading partner, in 2023, Mongolian trade amounted to $12 billion, China helped rebuild the railway, also engaged the Mongolian economic corridor, connecting the three countries. On the Russian side, Mongolia 80% of oil and gas imports from Russia, 2022 Russian exports to Mongolia accounted for a total of 1.2% of energy.
In recent years, China and Russia have approached, and Mongolia has become a bridge. For example, the Power of Siberia No.2 natural gas pipeline plans to cross Mongolia from Russia and Siberia to Northeast China, with an annual gas transmission of 50 billion cubic meters, which is beneficial to all three parties, and Mongolia can collect transit fees.
However, Mongolia was not satisfied, so it pursued a third-neighbor policy. To put it bluntly, it did not want to be tied to death by China and Russia, and wanted to find the United States, Japan, South Korea and Europe as spare tires. This policy has been proposed in the 2010s, but it has become more and more obvious in actual operation, making China and Russia a little unstable. Economically, Mongolia looks to the West for investment to diversify risks. In 2023, Prime Minister Oyun Erden went to South Korea to talk about using Busan Port as a maritime window for Mongolia. In the future, not all exports will go through the land of China and Russia. South Korea has helped build logistics facilities. Although not all of them have been implemented, construction is already underway. The United States will invest US$350 million in 2022 to build hydropower stations for agriculture. American companies are targeting rare earths in Mongolia's copper mines and want to share the share. Germany and France signed an agreement to transfer technology to build wind power and solar power stations to promote green development. In 2022, Mongolia's exports to the United States will only account for 2%, which is comparable to China's 92%. However, the trend is rising, and China and Russia are worried that they will be robbed of the market in the long run.
Culturally, the West has penetrated Mongolian young people particularly deeply. 60% of Mongolia's population is under the age of 35. These people are interested in western life. Ulaanbaatar is full of cafes and Internet cafes, and they learn English by watching American TV shows. The U.S. Embassy engages in the American Corner project, builds a library to show movies, and promotes American culture. In 2023, there will be more than 50,000 English students in Mongolia, twice as many as Russian. Young people are curious about the concept of free * in the West and feel outdated about the Sino-Russian system, which opens the mouth to the West and potentially affects the policy direction.
Since 2003, Mongolia has been engaged in joint military exercises with the United States to explore Khan, and in 2023 in Gobi with tanks and drones. Mongolian army is only 10,000, weak combat, but this exercise makes China and Russia feel like introducing wolves into the room. The United States is not stationed, but sends advisors to train soldiers, Japan and South Korea also agree. In 2022, Japanese self-defense forces are training with Mongolians, and South Korea sells light equipment. These are not large, but the signals are clear, the West wants to engage in Mongolia military and close relations.
Gubin analyzed these in his 2024 article and felt that Mongolia was obviously reversed. Young people are indifferent to China and Russia, and some people openly oppose cooperation. If this trend continues, it may betray the interests of China and Russia. In particular, he mentioned the Power of Siberia No.2 pipeline. If Mongolia does not cooperate, Sino-Russian energy cooperation will fall through. There is a huge demand for natural gas in Northeast China. If Russia wants to sell more gas, neither side can afford to lose money. Coal trade is also critical. In 2022, China will import 60 million tons from Mongolia, accounting for 20% of China's coal imports. If Mongolia resells it to others, China will have to buy it at high prices from Australia and Indonesia, which will put great economic pressure. Strategically, Mongolia is a buffer zone between China and Russia, falling to the west, and the defense line between China and Russia in Northeast Asia shrinks. If the United States builds a base in Mongolia, China and Russia will be in great trouble. Japan and South Korea may take the opportunity to intervene and break the balance.
Mongolia is the source of China's minerals, copper rare earth is important for China's high-tech industry, if Mongolia is an exclusive agreement with the West, China's supply chain is unstable, the cost is high. Russia invests in Mongolia's railway energy, if it is rumored, the money is thrown away. The bigger problem is China-Russia relations, China-Russia is a strategic partner, relying on energy geography together, Mongolia can carry things together, both the test and the opportunity.
However, the Mongolian power is limited and cannot withstand the wave. It cooperates with China and Russia to make real profits, 90% of coal is sold to China, the pipeline relies on China and Russia, it is completely overwhelmed by the West's own days. Probably playing balance, harvesting benefits from the West, not blaming China and Russia.
The Mongolian country has to look long-term. The West pulled Mongolia is wanting to nail in the Chinese-Russian backyard, Mongolia borrowed this price, but is based in China-Russian. Cuban warned that there is a reason, China-Russian to put more effort, do not let the small neighbors lead the spark. In reality, Mongolia is still playing balance, short-term will not turn the face, but the trend should be tight.