In the early morning of October 3, many cities in Ukraine fell into complete darkness, the energy system was paralyzed, and people lit wax in the cold wind to keep warm.
At the same time, thousands of kilometers away in the Russian Far East, Putin stood in front of television cameras and announced in a calm but meaningful tone: In central Siberia, a super iron mine of up to 29 billion tons has been discovered and is about to be developed.
While interrupting the power lifeline, he flashed a big resource move. The Russia-Ukraine battlefield still seems to be a battle between guns and missiles, but the game behind it has quietly shifted to the deep waters of energy, metals and currency.
Putin's handshake, not only wants to make Ukraine more difficult to winter, but also to spark a earthquake in the global mining market, directly targeting the old opponent of Australia's "Iron Throne".
Red light on nuclear security
The major power outage in Ukraine is a "targeted blow."
According to a report from the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine on the same day, the Russian military used 18 missiles and 78 drones to attack 15 energy facilities across the country. Poltava, Sumei and Chernigov regions were the first to bear the brunt. Several power hubs were blown into ruins, with power outages lasting more than 12 hours in a single day.
This attack was not the first infrastructure attack in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Since the "suspected attack on Putin's special plane" in May, the war situation has obviously turned to an "war of infrastructure attrition." It seems that Russia does not intend to rely solely on the front line to advance, but to "cut off electricity and gas" from the rear, making it difficult for Ukraine to freeze before winter.
Power outages not only bring hardships to people's livelihood, but also potential nuclear safety hazards. Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant once lost external power supply and was forced to start emergency diesel generators to maintain the cooling system.
The Financial Times quoted IAEA Director-General Grouchy as saying: “We are getting closer to the nuclear disaster.”“Chernobyl has also had a power outage, and despite urgent repairs in time, this time the alarm clock has been sounded.
The Ukrainian government has urgently sought technical assistance from the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the international community has begun to reconsider the vulnerability of nuclear power stations in the war.
The Russian side has failed to respond to the nuclear security risks, and is more like letting the incident continue to ferment.For Ukraine, this is not just an electricity crisis, but a strategic "energy war".
29 billion tons of gold.
While Ukraine is plunging into cold winds and darkness, Russia has lit another fire. Putin publicly announced that he would start the development of the "Central Bonanza" in central Siberia. This iron ore reserve is as high as 29 billion tons, and the ore grade exceeds 65%, which requires almost no complex beneficiation.
More importantly, it is also close to railway trunk lines and the Sino-Russian border, with obvious transportation cost advantages.
This is not a momentary rise, but a long-time resource strategy.Russia proposed to build a "steel corridor" to quickly transport minerals to China through the ports of the Jiangsu Railway Bridge and the Jiangsu River.
According to border port data, the iron ore export volume of this route increased by nearly 23% year-on-year, and even soared by 80% in some months. For China, these new mines can reduce processing costs by 15 to 20 yuan per ton, saving up to $1.8 billion annually.
As the world's largest exporter of iron ore, Australia originally occupied a global market share of more than 50 percent, settling on the "iron throne".
China Mineral Resources Group led the move, suspending the procurement of some Australian mining ship goods, leading to Australia's iron ore exports to China for the first time in a decade to see a negative monthly growth.Australian Prime Minister Albany has expressed concern about this, calling for "strengthening cooperation with China in mining", but shouting in the face of Siberia's new opponent is clearly ineffective.
Double cycle reconstitution
This time, Russia launched not only iron ore cards, but also a profound geoeconomic test.
Putin also promoted the settlement of the RMB in this batch of iron ore trade.
According to industry sources revealed, at present, more than 80% of China-Russia iron ore transactions have abandoned the US dollar and switched to the settlement in their own currency.
This step is equivalent to using resources to pry open a gap in the monetary system.
Not only China, but also Russia is exploring similar mechanisms with India, Turkey and other countries. From energy to metals, Russia is trying to create a "resource-currency" closed loop. This not only weakens the US dollar's pricing power in international commodities, but also paves the way for broader "de-dollarization" in the future.
The EU's energy sanctions against Russia have instead become Russia's new weapon. The energy costs of European steel companies have soared, while Russian iron ore is more attractive because of its low price and convenient logistics. This has formed a "second blow" to Australia. Not only has the market been squeezed, but it has also been forced to cut prices to maintain share.
Australia, of course, does not want to. The port of Heidelberg is expanding, and B&B also announced that it will increase production capacity. But in the face of the 18% lower mining cost of Siberia's new mines, the railway transport is half faster than sea transport, the Australian effort seems to be more like a passive response.
Some investment banks predict that Russia may become China's second largest iron ore supplier by 2026。This means that Australia not only has to deal with price wars, but also faces resource reorganization supported by geopolitics. In the past, the stability dividend of "geographical distance from conflict" is no longer safe.
Russia is fighting a compound war. The front line uses missiles to interrupt the enemy's power supply system, and the rear line uses iron ore to attack the opponent's export market. This "play and sell" approach is gradually changing the global resource pattern.
Australia, on the other hand, faces double pressure, with a trade surplus narrowing by 12%, and a market share being robbed.The traditional mining model supports the economy and is forced to find new ways out.But the new energy industry is still in its early stages, and it is difficult to replace the pillar position of the iron mine in a short time.
In this changing situation, China is watching and walking, not only seizing the cost dividend, but also maintaining the diversification of the supply chain. While strengthening cooperation with Russia, we will continue to introduce ore from Brazil and other countries to ensure that we are not tied up by the risk of a single supply.
The U.S. continues to aid Ukraine, some countries in Asia are also trying to establish regional pricing centers, Australia hopes to form an export alliance against Russia, but all parties find that the old order is no longer stable and the new order has not yet formed.
In the final analysis, this is not a simple supply change, but a comprehensive reconstruction of resources, currency and trade chains.
No one can stand alone, and no one can completely overwhelm his opponent. The real winner may not be who has the most resources, but who can remain flexible and calm in changes, step on the right pace, and stabilize the position. On the chessboard of the global game, every grain of iron ore is no longer just an ore.
Source of information:
Guangming.com: Ukraine claims energy infrastructure in many places has been attacked by missiles and drones