Hamas and Israel are scheduled to begin indirect negotiations in Egypt on October 6 local time on the terms of the US-mentioned "20-point plan" on the ceasefire in Gaza and the preliminary withdrawal of Israeli troops.

However, even with a ceasefire, the conflict has permanently changed the security situation in the Middle East. Following Israel¡¯s iconic attack on Qatar, an Arab-Islamic emergency summit ended in Doha, Qatar¡¯s capital, on September 15. The summit issued a communiqué condemning Israel¡¯s attack on Qatar and calling on Arab and Islamic nations to unite in addressing common challenges and threats. On the same day, Israel opened tanks into Gaza and visited the ¡°Alliance of the United States¡± with the US Secretary of State.

¡ø On September 15, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a joint press conference with the US Secretary of State at the Prime Minister's Office. According to vision china

Arab countries' confidence in the United States declined sharply

In the Doha Emergency Summit Communiqué, countries reaffirmed the collective security concepts of Arab and Islamic countries, emphasizing the need to remain united in dealing with common challenges and threats, and the importance of starting to establish corresponding enforcement mechanisms. Currently, the parties generally assume that countries in the Middle East will re-examine their future relations with the United States. The Israeli attack on Qatar and the U.S. paranoid stance on Israel indicate that the U.S. as a ¡°security partner¡± is not reliable and that Israel attacks Qatar or will trigger further changes in the security landscape in the Middle East.

Chapter Rain, director of the Center for Research in Pakistan at Qatari University, told Red Star reporters that the current consensus is that the U.S. ability to provide security protection for the Middle East country and the U.S. influence are falling sharply, especially the previous Israeli attacks on Qatar, which have damaged the Gulf nation¡¯s trust in the tripartite after the signing of the Abraham agreement.

On September 15, the Deputy Secretary-General of the Arab League discussed the Israeli attack on Qatar in a press conference.

During his first presidential term, Trump brokered the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and other Arab countries to sign the so-called "Abraham Agreement" with Israel, rapidly promoting the normalization of relations, but promoted the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia, a regional power, and Israel. It is difficult. After the outbreak of this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict in October 2023, Saudi Arabia suspended negotiations on normalizing Saudi-Israeli relations. The Arab-Israeli reconciliation represented by the "Abraham Agreement" is actually a three-way game between Arab, Israel and the United States and a "transaction" in which each gains something. Chen Shuangqing, a researcher at the Institute of Middle East Studies at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that although this is the general trend, the inherent contradictions, differences in demands and lack of mutual trust between Arab countries and the United States and Israel constitute real or potential obstacles.

The Arab countries believe that the signing of the Abrahamic Agreement should restrict Israel¡¯s behavior, but the actual result is that Israel¡¯s policies move further after the agreement was signed. The U.S. restrictions and rules on Israel are also relatively weak, which causes the other side of the agreement ¨C the Arab state ¨C to be extremely unrestricted. In this case, seeking new security cooperation within the Arab country is very normal. In this context, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia jointly signed a strategic defense agreement on September 18.

Joe Buez, an independent strategic analyst in the United States who focuses on Middle East affairs, analyzed that at the beginning of Trump's second term, Gulf leaders initially welcomed his return because Trump's transactional foreign policy was more in line with the diplomatic values of leaders in the Gulf region than the idealized Biden.

However, when Trump supported Israel's attack on Iran and ordered direct air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, most of this "goodwill assumption" of Arab countries went up in smoke. The move turned back on previous signals about diplomacy and non-intervention, and also dashed Trump's hopes of prioritizing de-escalation. These events show that the United States is no longer a reliable security guarantor, but a potential player in turmoil.

Are Arab countries moving towards unprecedented unity?

Under the new security situation, Arab countries have also begun to respond quickly. At the end of August, Turkey decided to ban Israeli ships from using its ports and prohibit Turkish ships from docking in Israeli ports; at the same time, Turkey has closed its airspace to Israel, banned Israeli aircraft from passing through, and completely interrupted economic and trade exchanges with Israel.

The United Arab Emirates warned the Israeli government this month that any Israeli annexation on the West Bank would cross the ¡°red line¡±. The UAE did not specify what measures would be taken at the time, and the options currently considered include diplomatic relations downgrading and withdrawing ambassadors. The UAE is considered the most important Arab country to normalize relations with Israel. Once relations between the UAE and Israel are downgraded, it will undoubtedly be a major blow to the Abraham deal.

Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, a former U.S. ambassador to Malta, analyzed that this kind of public display of diplomatic strength is uncommon for the UAE. In the face of American inaction, the UAE's move suggests that the region will show tougher diplomacy. The breakdown of relations with Arab countries that recognized Israel in the Abraham Accords is a devastating blow to Israel. It would also be a major political setback for Netanyahu and Trump.

On September 29, U.S. President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House.

Currently faced with the strength of Israel and American tolerance, the Arab nations have shown a certain degree of solidarity. Following the Israeli airstrikes on Qatar, the UAE president and the Saudi prince quickly traveled to Doha to hold an Arab-Islamic emergency summit.

British expert: Israel is the biggest threat to the Gulf region

The Israeli conflict has also, to some extent, eased relations between Iran and the Gulf countries.

Iran has long been regarded as a core threat in the Gulf region. Today, Iran and Gulf countries are increasingly reaching a consensus on security considerations. Sanam Wakiir, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House in the UK, said in a commentary that for decades, Gulf countries have defined regional security through Iran's perspective: Gulf countries are worried about Iran's nuclear program and its military capabilities for cross-border attacks. However, Israel's unscrupulous military operations in the Gaza Strip, escalating military operations in the West Bank, and escalating situations in Lebanon, Syria and Qatar have redefined the core security issues of the Gulf states.

Vachir wrote that Arab nations now see Israel as the biggest threat to stability in the region. Iran¡¯s actions are already normal and predictable. In contrast, Israel¡¯s actions have become more bold, and Israel¡¯s actions are essentially undermining long-standing norms in the Gulf region.

In response, Gulf leaders could deepen cooperation among themselves while accelerating the diversification of diplomatic and security partnerships, expanding defense cooperation with Turkey, and re-evaluating the uncertainty prospect of normalizing relations with Israel.

Red Star reporter Wang Yalin trainee reporter

Edited by Guo