On the occasion of the two-year anniversary of the outbreak of the Israeli conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump dropped the "20-point plan", a negotiation that appeared to be heading towards a peaceful ceasefire in Gaza, which suddenly occurred.The outside world has noted that the direct catalyst for this negotiation was not a traditional diplomatic intermediary, but a out of control military operation, a public "flag" within the U.S. "friends circle."

¡ø On September 9, black smoke rose over buildings in Doha, Qatar, after an Israeli missile attack

On September 9, when the missiles fell from the night sky in Doha, U.S. President Donald Trump¡¯s Middle East envoy, Witkov, was in his home in Miami. A few days ago, he and Trump¡¯s son-in-law Kushner and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu¡¯s close friend, Ron Demer, were here to define the details of the peace agreement, while Demerel did not mention the upcoming attacks.

The U.S. military's space sensors captured the missile's trajectory. Only when the alarm reached the White House did Trump learn that Israel's target was the capital of Qatar, one of the most important military partners of the United States in the Middle East and the key mediator of the Gaza peace talks. Trump's instruction was given to Witkov, asking him to immediately warn Qatar. But it was too late, and by the time Witkoff's call was connected, the missile had landed.

Trump in the White House said: ¡°He¡¯s playing with me.¡±The White House officials who heard the words revealed that Trump¡¯s words were filled with frustration and frustration for being betrayed,¡± referring to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

At the same time, another crack is widening in its most traditional cross-Atlantic circle of allies: at the United Nations, key European allies such as Britain and France have chosen to separate themselves from the United States on the issue of recognizing the State of Palestine, making the United States the only country among the five permanent members of the Security Council not to recognize Palestine.

Unreliable "protective umbrella"

¡ø On October 6, 2025 local time, displaced Palestinian children searched for items that could be used as cooking fuel in a pile of burning garbage in the Breji refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip. According to Visual China

"This is extremely destructive." Christian Coates Ulrison, a Middle East expert at the Baker Institute at Rice University in the United States, commented on Israel's attack on Qatar in an interview with Red Star News.

In Ulrison's view, it was like a stress test, revealing that the U.S. -led Middle East security system began to collapse from within.

In 2010, Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, successfully assassinated a senior Hamas operative in Dubai, and the immediate result of that operation was to "plunge the budding relations between Israel and the Gulf states into a deep freeze for several years." This time, the attack occurred in Qatar, which houses the regional headquarters of the U.S. Central Command.

The U.S. Central Command¡¯s regional headquarters is located at Udead Air Force Base in Qatar, which is also the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. Ullison noted that the base should ¡°first play the role of deterrence and detection of air threats in the region¡±, but the U.S. was ¡°hidden in the drum¡± when the attack occurred.

¡°The sight of one member of the U.S. Central Command attacking another member is extremely devastating,¡± Ullison explained, ¡°especially in 2021, one of the main reasons for Israel¡¯s inclusion in the command is to enhance its regional connectivity.¡±

The Gulf countries, which have long relied on the United States as their primary security guarantee, have had to re-evaluate the reliability of the umbrella.

Allies who "parted ways"

Will this matter fundamentally shake the Gulf countries 'trust in the United States? Professor Ulrison gave a complex answer. "(In addition to trusting the United States), there are few alternative (security guarantees) solutions," he analyzed."This is likely to prompt Qatar officials to strengthen their engagement with the United States to ensure that such incidents do not happen again."

But the cracks of trust are difficult to bridge once they arise. Ullison judged that while the dependence on the United States is difficult to change in the short term, it is almost doomed that the process of normalization of Arab-Israeli relations ¡°has been out of discussion in the foreseeable future¡±.

"For more than a decade, there has been a perception in Gulf capitals that the United States is declining and losing interest in the region," Ulrison told Red Star News."But Israel's attack on Qatar may accelerate their doubts about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees." And this acceleration will inevitably lead to a result that the United States does not want to see. Ulrison judged that this could ultimately "lead Gulf states to diversify their defense networks and relationships."

¡ø On September 30, 2025 local time, in Nablus, West Bank, Palestinian police participated in a military parade according to Visual China

The United States is also facing unprecedented diplomatic isolation among its traditional European allies as the Middle East¡¯s security system deepens.At the end of September, during the United Nations General Assembly, Britain, France, Canada, and Australia ¨C more than a dozen countries that have been close to the United States in all major international affairs over the past decades ¨C announced their official recognition of the State of Palestine.

"Diplomacy recognizes that when acting in concert, it carries more weight than an isolated gesture-and governments across the world understand this." George Kilis, associate professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, analyzed that the direct consequence of this move is that the total number of recognized Palestinian states among the 193 member states of the United Nations has increased to 157, accounting for 81% of the member states."The United States has become the United Nations Security Council. The only permanent member of the Security Council that does not recognize the Palestinian state."

This deepening isolation, he said, could increase pressure on Israel and its allies (i.e. the United States), forcing them to resume the peace process.

But can this kind of diplomatic isolation drive a substantial change in U.S. policy? some experts have seen this more cautious and even pessimistic diplomatic breakthrough, which has happened in the past, but it has eventually proved meaningless in the face of the reality of making (Palestine) a state becoming more impossible.¡± ¨C Mahat Nassar, a Palestinian historian at the University of Arizona, says that a more critical observation is that recent changes in Western countries are using recognition of the State of Palestine ¡°to exempt themselves from carrying out more challenging diplomatic tasks.¡±

Causes of Disorder.

US President Trump said on September 30 that he suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu accept the terms of the ceasefire plan.

From the Middle East¡¯s ¡°allied battles¡± to Europe¡¯s ¡°diplomatic downturn,¡± many analysts say these phenomena have nothing to do with U.S. unilateralism in recent years.

David Cullen, a researcher at the University of Coventry, pointed out in his analysis of U.S. President Trump¡¯s September 23 UN speech that his diplomatic thinking is at the heart of contempt for multilateralism.

On the same day, Trump spoke for 57 minutes at the United Nations General Assembly, far beyond the 15 minutes prescribed. In his speech, Trump criticized the United Nations, saying it ¡°seems like nothing can be done except to write a strong letter¡± and claimed that ¡°empty words cannot solve the war.¡± From criticizing the UN¡¯s immigration policy ¡°is destroying the world,¡± to calling climate change a ¡°fraud,¡± he warned all world leaders present: ¡°Your country is heading to hell.¡±

Trump's public contempt for international rules and multilateral cooperation provides the bottom-level ideological footnote for analyzing a series of "extreme pressure" actions by the United States. Just three months before this UN General Assembly speech, in June, the United States launched direct military strikes on Iran's three nuclear facilities, Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz.

According to the analysis of Javid Ali, an expert at the University of Michigan and a former senior official of the National Security Council of the Trump administration, Trump has a dual goal: to "destroy" Iran's nuclear program militarily, while politically avoiding dragging the United States into another protracted war.

But this seemingly efficient unilateralism and "extreme pressure" may open Pandora's box. When the rule makers themselves start breaking the rules, they can no longer restrain other players at the table. The Israeli attack on Qatar also took place against such a backdrop of "confusion of rules".

America's unilateralism may be creating the consequences it wants to avoid. Ulrisson, an expert on Middle East issues at Rice University in the United States, believes that unilateral "extreme pressure" has not only failed to achieve the United States 'goals, but has "paradoxically" accelerated the decline of American influence and created the instability it wanted to prevent.

Red Star News reporter Deng Shuyi

Edited by Jan.

Inspection is high.