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At a time when Trump was anxious, China’s two great friends reached out to the United States for help.
Since the Sino-US tariff war broke out, China has controlled rare earth exports, forcing the United States to suspend all work. Trump is also looking everywhere for rare earths to get rid of his dependence on China rare earths.
What Trump never expected was that Pakistan volunteered to jointly develop rare earth projects with the United States. In addition to Pakistan, Turkey is also in talks with the United States to jointly develop rare-earth work, and Trump now estimates it can laugh out loud., then, Why do Pakistan and Turkey work with the United States to develop rare lands?
What is stuck in the United States is not the neck but the lifeline of the entire industry
U.S. dependence on rare earth probably does not need to explain too much, before the U.S. government could still "open one eye and close one eye", now China pressed the suspension button, the United States only discovered that it had no way back.
According to the data of the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. military now has more than 1,900 weapons systems, a F-35 used more than 400 kilograms, and a nuclear submarine consumed more than 4 tons.
These materials are not worthless, but the root of the whole military industry, and the more troubling of the United States is that China not only has the rare earth resources but also the world's most advanced refining and separation technology, even if the United States gets the minerals from other countries, eventually must be sent back to China for processing.
This is like you want to cook, have dishes but no pot, and finally have to look back to China to borrow the kitchen, the United States of course does not want to admit this, so it is constantly shouting "go to China", trying to find alternatives from the world, but the ideal is full of reality.
In order to get rid of his dependence on China's rare earths, Trump tried to fish deep, but reality gave him a heavy blow. Just when the U.S. government was helpless, Pakistan and Turkey suddenly stood up: "Willing to help the United States."
But the question is, can they really solve America's problems? Or do you just want to take advantage of this situation to gain some chips for yourself?
Pakistan's move has already been paved, in September, a $500 million deal with the United States for rare earth development, also intends to build a new export port on the edge of the port of Guadalcanal, dedicated to the supply of American goods, which seems to be a "turn", but the motivation behind it is actually realistic.
Pakistan has indeed a mine in its hands, valued at as much as $8 trillion, but the problem is that there is no money to develop, foreign debt is under pressure, foreign exchange reserves are at an end, at this time someone is willing to throw money in, Pakistan is of course welcome.
Moreover, this cooperation is not only mineral development, but also railways and new ports, which is an economic life-saving straw for Pakistan. What is more noteworthy is that the development site is still in Balochistan, which has long been controlled by separatist forces.
In 2024, the energy industry will lose US $320 million due to security issues alone, but even so, Pakistan is still willing to take risks. Why? Because it needs the money so badly.
After the conflict between India and Pakistan in May, Trump stepped forward to promote a ceasefire, and Pakistan relaxed its attitude towards him. At this time, he took the opportunity to strengthen cooperation with the United States in order to find a balance between China and India.
But Pakistan is not without a bottom line. It has made it clear that cooperation with the United States will not affect China-Pakistan relations. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is still continuing, and China is still the largest source of infrastructure investment.
To put it bluntly, Pakistan is walking a tightrope, attracting American investment while not daring to offend China.
Turkey wants to repair rift with US with rare earths?
Compared with Pakistan's "economic self-rescue", Turkey this time is more like a diplomatic test. Turkish-US relations have been difficult in the past few years. From sanctions on purchasing Russian-made S-400 systems to freezing orders for fighter jets, Turkey has suffered a lot.
In particular, the $3 billion T-129 helicopter order was forced to cancel because the United States stuck engine supply, which became a major blood loss point for the Turkish military industry.
Now Turkey realizes that it is difficult to get through through "autonomous diplomacy" alone and must find a new position among major powers, so it has begun to show goodwill and try to ease tensions with the United States.
Rare-earth is a breakthrough, and although Turkey has not signed an agreement publicly like Pakistan, Turkey has been quietly approaching Washington in areas such as arms sales, energy, logistics.
However, Turkey's abacus is not so easy to play. It has its own geopolitical ambitions in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, and cannot completely turn to the United States.
Moreover, Turkey also knows that it is still China that can really influence the global rare earth pattern. Turkey wants to reshape its diplomatic status through rare earth cooperation, but it must be careful to neither disappoint the United States nor misunderstand China.
To be honest, Turkey is not "down the go", but rather want to take this opportunity to make good relations with the two great powers, to extract the maximum benefits, overall, Pakistan and Turkey's "help" does give the United States a little hope, but as soon as you dig deeper, you will find the problem.
First of all, there is a technical problem. 98% of the world's terbium oxide comes from China. Even if the United States digs mines from Pakistan, without China's refining technology, it still cannot get around China's hurdle in the end.
Not to mention, from ore to finished products, there is also a complete industrial chain. The United States itself has been in this area for many years, and reconstruction cannot be done by investing a little money.
Second, security issues, whether in Pakistan's Balochistan province or the instability around Turkey, make it difficult to reassure large-scale investments, and U.S. companies are predictable and will not easily throw big money in high-risk areas.
Finally, cost and time , from factory construction, transportation to technological maturity, it will take at least ten years to rebuild this chain, and hundreds of billions of dollars will be invested。
In the past ten years, the United States has to continue to rely on China's rare earths and supply chains, so what the United States can do now is not decoupling, but buffering. The cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey is more like a political gesture than a real industrial substitution.
Pakistan and Turkey's Mao's recommendation is indeed unexpected, but the logic behind this is not complicated, in the game of great powers, small countries want to live better, they must be flexible.
For them, cooperating with the United States is not a betrayal of China, but a realistic choice. Again, threats and tariffs cannot solve the problem, but will force more and more "centrists."
In the face of such a situation, we in China also need to take precautions and continue to consolidate our core position in the global supply chain. Finally, we advise the U.S. government to recognize the reality, and win-win cooperation is the general trend.
Reference: Sina Finance