The newly elected president of the Japanese People's Party, Cao市早苗, was successfully elected, which is another important sign of the development of Japanese politics in the right-wing direction.
This politician, who is known as the "woman version Abe", is very right-wing, with a tough attitude toward China, and also frequently visits the Yogyakarta sanctuary, these acts have made her very "famous".
However, there is often a huge gap between campaign rhetoric and ruling reality. Whether Takaichi Sanae can turn his tough stance into practical actions still needs to be carefully evaluated from multiple dimensions such as strategic environment, military balance, domestic politics and international constraints. Takaichi sanae's political background has distinct right-wing characteristics.
She has served as Minister of Economic Security and Minister of General Affairs, and is a faithful successor of Abe's political line. She felt that some changes should be made to the peace constitution, and also wanted to increase the money spent on national defense, so that Japan and the United States allies were closer. In the issue of treating history, her views were more conservative, such as she referred to Japan's previous foreign aggression war as a "war of self-defense", and did not agree to separate the A-class war criminals in Yogyakarta.
What is even more remarkable is that she visited the Yasukuni Shrine 11 times in 12 years and publicly claimed that "she will continue to visit no matter what position she holds." In terms of China policy, she has repeatedly played up the "China threat theory" and even called for "war against China" on the Diaoyu Islands. Such remarks cater to domestic nationalist sentiments in Japan.
However, the strategic reality of the Diaoyu Islands issue is far from as simple as shouting political slogans. If Japan rashly escalates the conflict, it will not only be difficult to take advantage of it, but also be likely to get burned. Although takaichi sanae is tough in her words, as a senior politician, she knows the cost of military conflict. Although the Japanese Self-Defense Force is well equipped, its overall scale is limited, its long-range delivery and sustained combat capabilities are insufficient, and it has no advantage in close confrontation with China's naval and air forces.
More importantly, China is unwavering in its determination to safeguard territorial sovereignty and prevent the resurgence of militarism, and any military adventure by Japan will be decisively countered.
Japanese people are most concerned about people's livelihoods such as economic recovery, price stability, and not military adventures. Historical experience has shown that Japanese voters are less tolerant of extreme foreign policy, and once the tension leads to economic damage, the government support rate will decline rapidly.
While the United States is pleased to see Japan play a more active role in the Indo-Pacific strategy, it will never shake its fire. The Trump administration's "America Priority" policy emphasizes real interests, and if Japan proactively provokes conflict, there is a huge question whether the United States is willing to directly confront its allies with China.
Looking back at the historical performance of Japanese right-wing politicians, it has become a rule to shout the crowd during the election campaign and return to practice after taking office. Abe Jinping first ruled hard against China, but the second ruling pushed for the improvement of China-Japan relations; Mahatma Gandhi used to speak loud, but after taking office advocated for dialogue and negotiation.
Takaichi sanae may be no exception. After forming the cabinet, he will face the correction of the bureaucratic system, the exhortation of the economic circles and the pressure of the international community. In the end, the policy is likely to be adjusted back to the middle. In fact, her policy proposition has revealed room for compromise: she proposed a "proactive fiscal policy", indicating that she will focus on economic issues; Considering "expanding the ruling coalition" shows its emphasis on political survival rather than ideological purity.
For China, it is crucial to maintain strategic focus. No matter how Japan's politics changes, China will continue to solidly promote the modernization of national defense, enhance the law enforcement capabilities of the marine police, improve the legal system for safeguarding rights, and keep diplomatic communication channels open. History has proved that China has enough ability and wisdom to deal with any provocation and maintain regional peace and stability.
The election of Gao Shi Zaomiao may cause a moment of noise, but it will not change the fundamental trend of the balance of power between China and Japan, let alone shake China's firm will to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.