The political storm in the United States suddenly broke out, and triple crises broke out one after another. According to the latest Pew Research Center and Reuters poll in October 2025, 71% of the American people are "extremely worried" about the country's prospects, and S&P global data shows that the U.S. government has closed for only one week, and the economic loss is as high as 15 billion dollars.
earthquake in the army.
The top echelon of the US military has been extremely turbulent recently. Defense Minister Hagerseth made a big move to gather 800 generals for lectures, and the atmosphere was tense. According to follow-up reports by the New York Times and the Associated Press, Hagerseth used almost "cleansing" words at the meeting to ask the generals to "either obey or leave." In less than 48 hours, Air Force Gen. Thomas Bissier announced his retirement through social platforms. Immediately afterwards, Brian Fenton, commander of the Special Operations Command, submitted his resignation report and officially handed over power on the 3rd.
This high-level turmoil is far from a mere personal change.The Special Combat Command is responsible for global sensitive tasks, which directly affects the U.S. military's fast response capability. Analysts point out that the departure of Bishel and Fenton, actually reflects the deep differences within the military on the new defense strategy and management method. Many U.S. media directly say that after the 2024 Afghanistan withdrawal dispute, the U.S. military morale has fallen into a low valley, now more due to government shutdowns, current service and logistics officers salary delays, military instability becomes a reality.
According to the Defense News revealed, at present, more than 1 million active soldiers are affected by the shutdown, some grass-roots forces have reflected the shortage of equipment maintenance and supplies.The latest report of the U.S. Army Association even warned that if the situation continues, the Pentagon will face a "systemic crisis", and the foundation of the Trump administration relying onining military deterrence is shaking.
fiscal cliff
On September 30, 2025, the Senate vetoed the two-party allocation bill, and the White House announced the federal government's "closure".This was the second government shutdown during Trump's term, impacting an unprecedented scope. Labor data showed that 750,000 federal employees were forced on unpaid leave, the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) more than 10,000 people were suspended, and air traffic was alerted. The U.S. Department of Health and Public Services 3,2 million left their jobs, national health services were paralyzed, and large areas of the National Park were closed, directly impacting tourism and related services.
What's even more fatal is that key data departments such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Census Bureau were shut down simultaneously, resulting in the failure to release the October non-farm payrolls report. The Federal Reserve once lost its core data for judging employment trends, and market expectations were in a fog. Rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's and Moody's have successively issued warnings, saying that the sovereign credit of the United States is "already in the lowest trust range in history", global capital risk aversion has risen, and gold and silver prices have hit new highs.
According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury in October 2025, the economic loss after a week of government shutdown was approximately US$15 billion. The bigger hidden danger is the continued deterioration of U.S. debt credit. Major creditor countries such as China and Japan have begun to accelerate the sell-off of U.S. debt. Reuters reported that China's reduction of U.S. debt reached a new high in the third quarter of 2025. The risk of default in the United States continues to rise, and the bond market fluctuates violently. The Wall Street Journal commented that the debt crisis has become a "ticking time bomb hanging above the White House."
Europe to turn
On October 7, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was invited to visit Italy and Switzerland to attend a joint meeting of the Chinese government committee and to hold a strategic dialogue with Switzerland. It is worth noting that this was Wang Yi’s second large-scale visit to Europe in a month. In September, he just visited Austria, Slovenia, Poland, and in the middle of the year he also visited Belgium, Germany and France.
The invitation from Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Tajani and Swiss Federal Commissioner Cassis, the two countries were not the most active members of China-European relations before, initially invited Chinese senior diplomats, meaning is very obvious. The major European media is concerned: the United States is in a political, financial, military multi-struggle situation, European countries gradually lose confidence in the United States stability. The French “World Journal” commented that the current EU has doubts about “continuing to bet on the United States”, “China has become a more anticipated cooperation object.”
According to the German "Mirror Weekly", the European Commission has discussed strengthening economic and trade cooperation with China, with the intention of reducing dependence on the United States. Italy and Switzerland have demonstrated this initiative, and are viewed by the outside world as a signal that Europe seeks a new balance between China and the United States. The US-European traditional alliance has broken, and the "Western Union" is experiencing the most severe division since the Second World War.
Trump's urgent move
As the crisis spread, President Trump chose to "play two cards".On October 5, he urged social media builders across the United States to resume work, saying that there are 2 million vacant spaces in the country waiting for development, trying to drive employment and economic confidence with the recovery of the construction industry.But the reality is that the government shutdown overlaps with financial regulatory stagnation, data failure, and the construction industry is difficult to take on the heavy task of economic reconstruction alone.
In October, the National Association of Housing Builders (NAHB) that under multiple pressure of labor, raw materials, and capital chain, the construction industry’s growth index fell to a two-year low. Even if the president “cried out”, the industry’s rebound momentum was limited.
What attracts even more attention is U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent's statement on October 2. Besent publicly disclosed to the media that China and the United States will hold the fifth round of high-level negotiations during the APEC Summit in South Korea at the end of October, and admitted that "breakthrough results are worth looking forward to." He particularly emphasized the issue of soybean trade: From January to July 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China plunged 39% year-on-year, and exports dropped by 51%. Since May, China has not placed new orders. The latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirms that U.S. agricultural exports have been blocked, hitting the Midwest economy hard.
In an interview with CNBC, he said that the progress of Sino-US negotiations has become a "life-saving straw" and is of great significance to the capital market. Analysts said that the Trump administration may make compromises on tariffs, technology exports, entity lists, etc. in exchange for support from the China market.
The sky is quietly inclined.
The balance of power in Sino-US relations is undergoing subtle changes. In October 2025, the Trump administration fell into a passive position on multiple fronts. Military, financial, and diplomatic crises are superimposed, and the space for the United States to strive for the initiative has obviously shrunk. The White House once regarded itself as "ruling with an iron fist", but now it frequently shows weakness and asks for cooperation. American media generally believe that Sino-US negotiations are no longer purely economic and trade issues, but a prelude to the adjustment of global power structure.
China, on the other hand, showed more strategic patience and resilience. In the face of the US "seeking help", the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly emphasized "interest priority, negotiation according to the rules".The foreign trade data released by the Ministry of Commerce in the third quarter of 2025 showed that China's exports to the United States have fluctuated, but the overall resilience has increased, ASEAN and Europe have become a new growth pole.
The United States cares about "face", while China places more emphasis on "practical benefits." The United States hopes to restore capital confidence in the short term and alleviate the domestic crisis; China will gain more initiative in reshaping global supply chains, industrial upgrading, and regional cooperation.
As the global landscape is reshaping
This domino crisis in American politics has far exceeded the single event itself. Europe has taken the initiative to move closer to China, the strategic game in the Asia-Pacific region has heated up, and the global capital flow has changed. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest outlook in October. The global capital market's confidence in U.S. debt and the U.S. dollar declined, while some emerging market currencies performed firmly.
Several international consulting organizations have analyzed that if the United States fails to quickly resolve financial and military turmoil, it may trigger a broader crisis of international confidence. China, on the other hand, adopts a "progress while maintaining stability" attitude, seizes the window period for reshaping global governance rules, actively participates in multilateral cooperation, and enhances its voice on the global stage.
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