In the autumn of 2025, Russia ushered in an unseemly reality: the government announced a nationwide tax increase, which was not a little bit. The slogan that had been repeatedly emphasized by the government,"the war economy is getting stronger and stronger" now sounds more like a kind of self-comfort.
At first, it was said that the "national fiscal stability" was good, but eventually evolved into the payment of the whole people, from the fiscal reserves to the people's wallets, the Russian government's hand was step by step deeper.
This wave of tax increases is not just a numerical adjustment, but more like a baton hitting the face of an "energy country", marking a complete shift of the Russian economy to a "wartime model" without even planning to leave a fig leaf.
Energy is gone and the wallet is empty.
Russia's economic structure, in the end, still relies on "underground oil", in the past, energy exports supported most of the fiscal half, oil prices rose, followed by the ruble hard gas.
However, after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Western countries not only shouted outside the battlefield, but also took serious measures economically. Price limit orders, oil tanker blacklists, and insurance restrictions were linked one by one, directly choking Russia's energy lifeline.
It stands to reason that Russia still has a national wealth fund, but in recent years, wars have burned money too fast. Data show that in 2024 alone, the national wealth fund has shrunk by nearly one-third.
In the first half of 2025, energy resource revenue fell by 28% compared with the same period last year. The refinery was not idle and was "beaten" by Ukraine drones. The production capacity once fell by more than 20%. Oil could not be sold or refined, and fiscal revenue naturally could not hold it.
The fiscal deficit is getting bigger and bigger like a snowball. At first, the government tried to support it by cutting non-core expenditures, but soon found that this was a drop in the bucket. Since it couldn't rely on the old capital of "selling oil", it had to find a new "source of income", that is, the money bags of ordinary people.
The common people have nowhere to hide
In September 2025, the Russian government officially announced a series of tax increases, of which the most “meat-painful” was to raise the VAT from the original 20% to 22%.
Do not underestimate these two points, for ordinary households, for purchases, for services, and so forth, the Russian Ministry of Finance calculations are very direct: a medium-sized household will spend approximately 8.2 thousand rubles a year, about a month's wage.
Following closely, there is an increase in public utility fees, electricity, gas, and water costs, there is almost no exemption, the increase is on average between 15% and 25%, there are jokes, now at home more air conditioning, all have to measure the wallet's capacity.
Of course, the government is not without explanation, and the finance minister has made it clear that these new taxes will be "a large proportion used to safeguard the national defense and security."
This is kindly said, but it means very clearly: this money, in order to continue to fight the war, the people's question also came: when it was said that the good "war does not harm the economy", how now became the cost of distributing the whole people?
Ironically, ordinary people not only did not "benefit" from the war, but instead became the largest buyer, and the logic of the government was clear: the war had to be fought, it had to be spent, and the oil could not be sold, so people could only make money.
The days are getting tighter.
The Russian government continues to emphasize the supremacy of national defense security, the proportion of war spending rises year after year, and in the 2025 budget, defense spending has already accounted for a third of the overall spending, a new high in recent years.
However, education, medical care and social security, which are livelihood projects that ordinary people really care about, have been marginalized, and even the budget has been compressed.
Meanwhile, the ruble went down the way, inflation was at the forefront, in the supermarkets, the price of everyday goods increased almost monthly, eggs, flour, and the most commonly purchased things of the people, increased by more than 15%.
Wages, on the other hand, are rising slowly. Many companies have even frozen wages, increased taxes, and increased prices, but their wallets have not been inflated, and people's purchasing power has actually shrunk.
Gasoline restrictions have also become a recent hot topic, in some regions, a car can only buy a fixed amount of oil a day, which is not only a signal of tension, but also reflects the distortion of the entire economic system, energy powers, but to give their own people "limit oil", which in the past was unthinkable.
This situation makes people have to ask: If the war continues, what will be left for people's livelihood? The Russian government now emphasizes "national security", but the people are more concerned about "life security". After all, the war is not for everyone. Everyone is on the front line, but everyone is paying the price.
From "energy hegemon" to tax increase for the whole people, the change behind this is not only a change in financial means, but also an adjustment of national strategy. In the past, Russia relied on energy to make money, but now it relies on the common people to "supply blood" to maintain the situation.
The essence of the war economy is to pass on the costs of war to ordinary people. Whether it is through oil prices, taxes, or prices, many people still remember the heroic words in the early days of the war: "The more we fight, the stronger the economy" and "sanctions will not hurt us."
But now looking at it, more and more Russians are beginning to realize that it's okay to listen to those words, but reality is the most sincere reminder. No one can give a definite answer what will happen to the future of Russia's economy.
But one thing is certain: the cost of war is not only the casualties on the battlefield, but also the bills on the dining table of ordinary families. Economic laws never show mercy. When resources are swallowed up by weapons, life will naturally be squeezed.
People are feeling the "recoil" of the war in their own way, and the real cost of this war has just begun to appear.