According to reports, five permanent members, called the ¡°Five Permanent¡±, are now calling for the Five Permanent Expansionists, which have been increasing over the years. This is not, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has thrown a ¡°diplomatic bomb¡± at the UN General Assembly, openly expressing support for India and Brazil to become permanent members of the Security Council, and also emphasizing to give more representation to Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This stone aroused a wave of thousands, and the international community is wondering: the Five Permanent Must Be Seven?

In fact, the discussion on Security Council reform has not lasted for a day or two. Every time we go to the United Nations General Assembly, there is always a country shouting that they want to eliminate the veto power to make the Security Council more fair. Countries such as Finland and New Zealand deliver passionate speeches at the conference every year, hoping to one day send the "veto power" to history museums. However, if the words are put well, it will be very difficult to get serious. Reform of the Security Council requires amending the United Nations Charter, which is equivalent to asking the five permanent members to agree collectively. As long as one of them says "no", it's over.

Lavrov's statement, in fact, there are a lot of "small nineties" behind. He said on the United Nations table that the world pattern has changed greatly, Asia, Africa, Latin America have risen, the representation of the Security Council must keep up with the times. Especially in the global South, the economy and population double-growth, but the right to speak is still hardly meaningful. This time Russia pulled India and Brazil together "to the norm", it is clear that it wants to use the opportunity to consolidate and the relations of the emerging powers, while on the international stage against the influence of the United States and the West. Lavrov also suggested that the representatives of Africa should also choose according to their criteria, to correct the historical injustice, this word is not a drop of water, won a lot of applause.

But what do other permanent members think? In fact, the abacus of the United States is not difficult to guess. On the surface, the United States has always said that it supports the expansion of the Security Council, especially India and Japan. But the United States is like a mirror in its heart. If more countries really want to come in, its influence will definitely be diluted. India and the United States may agree, but Brazil may not. The United States has always regarded Latin America as its back garden, and it may not be happy to let Brazil "enter the WTO".

As for China, the doorway here is more complicated. China has always expressed its support for the UN reform, willing to make the global governance system more fair and reasonable. But when it comes to whether India can enter the permanent board of directors, China's attitude is a bit subtle. Everyone knows that China's Indian relations have been "the pinnacle to MacMahon", the border dispute has not ended, the economy and security is also secretly strong.

Speaking of France and Britain, these two old European brands are now more and more marginalized in the Security Council, and the power of speech is far less than the United States and China. France and Britain are basically supporting the Security Council expansionists, advocating for Germany, India, Japan and Brazil to have permanent seats, and calling for Africa to have two seats. In fact, they say that more is done as they do, in any case, the power of the final board is still in their own hands. Expansionists can make them feel a little better in the non-Western world, but at the critical moment, they will also consider their own interests, and will not yield easily.

Behind the reform of the Security Council is a geopolitical "big chess game". Lavrov's high-profile support for India and Brazil this time is, to put it bluntly, because he has taken a fancy to the forces of the global South and wants to unite with emerging powers to jointly fight against the international order dominated by the West. Especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and drastic changes in the global landscape, Russia needs to win over new friends and stabilize its international camp. Lavrov also specifically mentioned the need to "decolonize" and called on the United Nations to establish an "International Anti-Colonialism Day", which is also encouraging countries in the global South.

However, the expansion of the Security Council is easier said than done. The reform must amend the Charter of the United Nations, which requires the consent of two-thirds of the Member States and the approval of all five permanent members. As long as one country says "disagree", the whole reform will get stuck. Whether India and Brazil can successfully "enter the WTO" depends on the game in the five permanent members.

Historically, India's efforts to "enter the WTO" can be described as all kinds of efforts. As early as the last century, India, Japan, Germany and Brazil formed a "four-nation alliance", and together they demanded to become permanent members and have veto power. Unfortunately, after many tosses and turns, it has never been achieved. Every time there is a critical moment, there is always a problem for one party. Although India's economy is large, it is always a little worse in terms of global influence and international contribution.

In fact, the biggest problem with the Security Council reform is that the interests of all parties are too difficult to balance. The five often have their own "small calculator", no one is willing to give up the existing power and interests easily. The United States is afraid of influence to be diluted, the French British want to brush in the sense, China is afraid of geographic competition, Russia wants to expand the circle of friends. Every country says in the mouth to "reform", but really to the moment of voting, no one is willing to give themselves trouble.

This time Lavrov dropped a "diplomatic bomb" at the United Nations, which was definitely not an impulse. His speech has both strategic considerations and practical needs. Russia is now facing Western sanctions and isolation, and it urgently needs to unite with countries in the global South to win more support. Proposing to expand the membership of the Security Council can not only win over India and Brazil, but also occupy a moral high ground in the international public opinion field. Lavrov also specifically criticized the "rules-based order" of the West and advocated that the United Nations return to the "Charter Principles", which is also a show of goodwill to developing countries.