Before he officially became the Prime Minister of Japan, Takaichi Sanae first received three requests from China, which were both reminders and early warnings. So, what demands did China put forward this time? What direction will Sino-Japanese relations take in the future?
On October 4th, the results of the 29th presidential election of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party were announced. Takaichi sanae, the former minister in charge of economic security, narrowly defeated Koizumi Shinjiro and was elected as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party. According to Japan's political practice, the Liberal Democratic Party, as the largest party in Congress, has almost a high probability that its leader will become the new Japanese Prime Minister. This means that Japan is likely to welcome its first female prime minister in mid-October.
In response to media questions, China clearly put forward three requirements to Japan: one is to require the Japanese side to abide by the principles and consensus of the four political documents of China; two is to require the Japanese side to abide by its political commitments on major issues such as history and Taiwan; and three is to require the Japanese side to pursue a positive and rational policy towards China.
Analysis shows that the Chinese side put forward these three points is not a blatant arrows. Who is High Market Early Sun? Her political label is almost full of "right wing", "hawk" and "Abbashi". She is a faithful supporter of Abe's promise, claiming to be the heir of the "Abbashi line". She was elected to the House of Representatives ten times, but has always been referred to as extreme conservative. She denied the Nanjing massacre, distorted historical facts; she openly worshiped the Yogyakarta temple, tolerated the extreme right forces; she advocated the so-called "Chinese threat theory", many times provoked Taiwan.
China’s reaction is based on these realities.The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ statement is brief, but every word is well thought out.It is both a reminder to Japan’s new leaders that China-Japan relations need to be stable, and it is also a warning to the Japanese market: Japan’s internal affairs you can dominate, but the bottom line of Japan-Japan relations is not to be tested.
Specifically, the first is to adhere to the principles of the four political documents of China and Japan. This is the political basis of the two-country relations, ranging from the joint declaration of relations to the treaty of peace and friendship, to the political mutual trust consensus. If China is engaged in "selective observance" on the basis of these documents, China-Japan relations will lose the most basic framework. Secondly, to adhere to the historical and Taiwan-related commitments. Japan has repeatedly expressed in government documents that it does not support "Taiwan independence", recognizes the principle of one China. If she has the flag of "security dialogue" to interfere with Taiwan, it is to touch the red line. Third, pursue a positive rational policy towards China. This does not require Japan to
China's attitude is not complicated: cooperation is expected, confrontation is useless. The problem is that the political stance of the high market depends precisely on confrontation to maintain its existence. She lacks the flexibility of Abe's wander between pragmatism and ideology, and she tends to use foreign hardness in exchange for domestic applause. She posted to the U.S. think tank during the campaign, claiming that "to have a frank dialogue with China", but at the same time stressed that "never allow unilateral change of the status quo in Taiwan". This is actually a dialectical double: talk peace on the one hand, arrow on the other. China, of course, understands this subtitle.
In fact, there are also people in Japan who are concerned about her line. The representative of the Communist Party, Zidane Zidane, spoke straight during the meeting, visiting the Yogyakarta God Society triggered diplomatic risks, and must be cautious. Zidane raised three concerns: the black gold issue, historical issues, foreign relations. The Communist Party attaches importance to China relations, and also understands the reality of the interdependence of the Chinese economy, once the high market continues to visit Yogyakarta or on the issue of provocation, the China-Japan economic and trade cooperation will be compromised.
In fact, she has always been accustomed to playing vaguely. When asked about the Yakuza question during the election debate, she avoided to answer; in the face of media questions, she said that “to make the right decision on time”. But the outside world understands that this vaguely is a political language itself. She wants to retain right-wing support and does not want to immediately spark a diplomatic crisis. The question is, how long can this “two-headed” strategy last?
For China, such a Japanese leader is neither worth panicking nor looking forward to. What China needs is a pragmatic neighbor, not an opponent kidnapped by ideology. Sino-Japanese relations have experienced twists and turns in the past few decades, but economic and non-governmental exchanges have always been stabilizers. Even during the political cooling-off period, the scale of trade between the two countries remains high. China will not give up dialogue because of the words of a politician, but it will not tolerate repeated provocation of issues of principle.
The future high-city cabinet is likely to continue the "short cycle" characteristics of the Democratic Party in recent years. She doesn't have her own faction, she can only rely on the Mushinist support. She has planned to appoint Suzuki Jung-i as chief executive officer, and even consider making Mushin-Taro vice president. On the surface it looks like pulling the elderly, in fact it is forced to balance. The political pressure of the valve, leaving her governing space very limited. In addition to the scandals inside the Democratic Party, high fiscal deficits, people's differentiation, she wants to stabilize the seat of the prime minister, it is almost impossible not to compromise to the right.
The history has long proved that no party between China and Japan can develop completely apart from each other. For China, dealing with the relationship with the cabinet of the high city is more like a "long-term management", not an emotional response, but an institutional response. If the high city is willing to contact on a pragmatic level, China will accept; if it is determined to go to the extremes, China also has enough space to respond. In the end, the future of Japan does not depend on who will be prime minister, but how it will face reality. A country that relies on denying history, provoking neighbors, and meeting external forces maintenance, can not be long-term stability. China's "three requirements" are both a reminder to the high city and a new calibration of China-Japan relations.