Under the waves of the Caribbean Sea, undercurrents surged. On October 5, 2025, the U.S. Navy's amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima quietly withdrew from the sea off Venezuela and headed for Port St. Thomas in the United States Virgin Islands. This action was interpreted by the outside world as a landmark signal of the US military's "phased deterrence failure."
And what forced the U.S. military to retreat was Venezuela’s high-profile air defense missile positions and the Su-30 fighter jets carrying supersonic anti-ship missiles – an asymmetrical game of weak resistance is rewriting the military balance of the Caribbean.
The U.S. military withdrawal is not an isolated event. In the past half-month, the U.S. has assembled a large fleet of more than 200,000 tons around Venezuela under the name of "Anti-Drug Operation", including the "Sulphur Island", the "Ili Lake" cruiser, three Ali Burke-class destroyers and a nuclear submarine attack, the largest U.S. military assembly in the Caribbean in 20 years.
Air Defense Missiles Raise Iron Curtain, Old Equipment Launches New Deterrence
In the face of U.S. pressure, the Venezuelan Air Defense Forces led the bottom line. Subsequently, several S-125 air defense missile camps were deployed locally to the west from the base in Marrakech to the crucial targets in the Caracol Belt, forming a relatively dense air defense barrier.
These are regarded by the West as "old" Soviet-style equipment, but are criticized by the U.S. military for the achievements of the F-117A hidden fighter in that year.In addition, Venezuela also has a large number of deployments of portable air defense missiles on the coast, specifically aimed at low-air Turkish defense helicopters and warplanes.
The U.S. military is also warned that Venezuela’s anti-subterranean radar has repeatedly captured the traces of the F-35. This means the U.S. military’s hidden advantage can be greatly discounted in the face of specific technologies. And once the F-35 is shot down by a traditional air defense system such as the S-125 in a real battle, it will not only hurt the reputation of the U.S. military industrial giant, but may also trigger a series of chain political reactions.
Su-30 hanging killers, supersonic missile locking U.S. ships
The Su-30MK2 fighter jets equipped by the Venezuelan Air Force form the core pillar of its air deterrent. This Russian-made heavy-duty multi-role fighter has a combat range of 1500 kilometers and can carry up to 8 tons of ammunition. It can be seen that the recent upgrade of the Su-30MK2 is equipped with a supersonic Kh-31A anti-ship missile, which can fly at speeds of up to Mach 3 and have a range of about 100 kilometers. It is designed to attack medium-sized ships. But once it is hit accurately by Aegis, even a destroyer like the Burke-class may suffer serious damage or even be in danger of capsizing due to the huge rebound pressure brought by its thick hull.
At the beginning of September, two Su-30MK2s crossed the U.S. destroyer Jason Dunham with a 50-meter ultra-low air defense gesture, and recently almost wiped the barrel over. This provocative move demonstrated both the technical courage of the pilots and suggested that Venezuela was prepared for a "maritime spat". Military analysts believe that the Venezuelan army could take the "F-16 enemy + Su-30 assault" tactic, attracting U.S. attention through the old F-16 and creating a window for launching anti-ship missiles for the Su-30.
Asymmetric tactics work, and the US military is concerned about multiple risks
The U.S. military withdrawal was a balancing of Venezuela's asymmetrical combat power. On the one hand, the S-125 missile system adopted a maneuverable deployment mode that was difficult to completely eliminate, and once there were leaked fish, it would pose a deadly threat to the U.S. helicopter group. On the other hand, the saturated attack of the Kh-31A missile could break the interception limit of the Zeus Shield system. In addition, Venezuela also received 2,000 attack drones from Russia, these drones can carry out beech-like strikes, further enhancing the defense's cost advantage.
The deeper reason lies in political risks. If the US military rashly invades and causes losses to ships and aircraft, it will greatly shake the trust of regional allies in the strength of the US military.
Venezuela has mobilized 4.5 million militiamen, laid mines along the coast, and deployed Iranian "Nur" anti-ship missiles, posing a national anti-war posture. Coupled with the support of Russia, Cuba and other countries, if the United States launches military action, it may fall into a more complicated quagmire than expected.
The game is far from over, and the undercurrent is still surging
Although the evacuation of the Sulphur Island temporarily resolved our questions about the “distant” nature of the U.S. troops away from the mainland, the main force of the U.S. military remains stationed in U.S. bases such as Puerto Rico, and the distance between the F-35 fleet and a batch of nuclear submarines does not seem to be real.
Venezuela continues to strengthen its combat readiness, not only expanding the Su-30 patrol range to the coverage area of the S-300 air defense system, but also using the Beidou system provided by China to locate U.S. warships.
As the contest between the two sides gradually escalates from a simple military confrontation to a microcosm of a geopolitical game between major powers, it has also brought increasing strategic variables, such as Russia's drone support, China's technical cooperation, and the anti-American stance of many Latin American countries have made the situation more and more complex and full of variables.
The smell of nitrate in the Caribbean Sea temporarily dissipated, but the gunpowder keg fuse has not yet been removed. When the shadow of the Su-30 hangs over U.S. warships, and when old anti-aircraft missiles target stealth fighters, the rules of modern warfare are being redefined.