After announcing that it is considering providing Ukraine with “Tax” cruise missiles, the Trump administration agreed to provide intelligence to Ukraine to support Ukraine’s large-scale attacks on Russian energy facilities, undermining Russia’s war capabilities.
According to the news agency Xinhua on October 2, the Trump administration has agreed to the U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence agencies to provide intelligence to Ukraine to support Ukraine's long-range missile attacks on energy facilities in Russia.
This shift in policy marks both a fundamental change in the nature of U.S. aid to Ukraine and a potential escalation of the conflict, which will focus on whether Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons or expand the scale of the conflict if the economy suffers a major trauma.
Tactical weapons can be used strategically.
How to use tactical weapons to strategic effects or strategic usefulness, the most direct way is to strike the strategic objectives of the opponent. After the aircraft in the battlefield, strategic bombardment once very fashionable, such as during the Second World War, the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries on a large number of strategic bombers to use strategic bombardment of Japan, Germany for "carpet" strategic bombardment. After the birth of precision-guided weapons, it can be achieved without the use of "carpet" strategic bombers on the enemy's key targets, such as military factories, energy facilities, command and other strategic targets.
Cruise missiles born during World War II provided more possibilities for tactical weapons to play their strategic role. The V-1 cruise missile developed by Nazi Germany was the world's first cruise missile. During World War II, Nazi Germany fired more than 10,000 of this type of missiles at Britain, killing 6184 people and seriously injuring 17981 people in the UK, causing great damage and psychological panic in Britain. After the war, the United States, the Soviet Union and other countries relied on seizing a large number of V-1 missiles and materials from Nazi Germany and started the development of their own cruise missiles.
In the 1970s, with the development of terrain matching guidance technology, jet engine miniaturization technology and microelectronics technology, a new generation of cruise missiles such as Tomahawk and Kh-55 were born. The biggest features of these cruise missiles are their greatly reduced size, greatly improved hit accuracy and improved penetration capabilities.
The "Tomahawk" cruise missile became famous during the First World War in the Gulf War. In the early morning of January 17, 1991, U.S. warships cruising in the Persian Gulf launched 52 "Tomahawk" missiles. After route planning, the "Tomahawk" missiles flew from ultra-low altitude to Iraq, and the route planning bypassed the Iraqi army's radar and air defense systems to carry out precise strikes on Iraq's air defense command center and power facilities, causing Iraq's air defense forces to fall into chaos. It played an important role in seizing air supremacy. It can be said that the precision strike of the "Tomahawk" missile has achieved certain strategic effectiveness.
After the Gulf War, the "Tomahawk" was regarded by the US military as one of the core weapons for "surgical" precision strikes. Since the 1980s, Tomahawk missiles have been developed for five generations. At present, the main force of US military equipment is the fourth and fifth generation Tomahawk missiles. The missile has a range of about 1,500 kilometers. The new "Tomahawk" missile has upgraded its navigation and communication system, added data links and partially modified its aerodynamic shape. It has better stealth capabilities, further improved its comprehensive combat performance. Some models have also added phased array end active radar, which can be used to attack surface ships, especially large surface warships such as aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships and large destroyers. It is considered as the "aircraft carrier killer" of the US military.
In addition to the "Tomahawk" cruise missiles, the United States is also considering providing air-launched cruise missiles to Ukraine, but did not disclose the specific model. However, American media have reported many times before that the United States plans to provide AGM-158 cruise missiles to Ukraine to equip F-16 fighter jets provided to Ukraine by many NATO countries. AGM-158 is a stealth cruise missile equipped by the U.S. Air Force since the beginning of this century, and has developed multiple improved models so far.
Basic type AGM-158 missile range of about 370 kilometers, extended range increased to more than 900 kilometers, can be launched beyond the majority of air defense missiles range, to ensure the safety of the carrier. The missile uses aerial / hidden integration design, in the shape of ammunition, bulletheads, ammunition wings and inlet and so on design takes into account the hidden design, has a strong hidden ability. AGM-158 series missiles can carry a 454 kilograms weight of ammunition head, using composite control: inertial navigation + GPS + infrared imaging end guidance, the maximum measurement accuracy can be within 5 meters.
The Russian economy is facing a major test.
According to media reports, this will be the first time the Trump administration has assisted Ukraine in carrying out such in-depth strikes, and U.S. officials have also asked NATO allies to provide similar support to Ukraine. Expanding intelligence sharing means that Ukraine can more effectively attack energy infrastructure such as Russian refineries, oil pipelines, and power stations far away from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Trump promised during his presidential campaign last year to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict soon, but has failed to make substantial progress on the matter since he took office in January this year. During the United Nations General Assembly in September this year, Trump's stance changed significantly, claiming that with the support of the European Union and NATO, Ukraine is expected to "regain the entire of Ukraine" and said that the United States will continue to provide weapons to NATO. U.S. Vice President Vance told the media at the end of September that the White House is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range that can cover the Russian capital, Moscow, through European NATO members.
The U.S. has set up a platform for both providing cruise missiles to Ukraine and expanding the scope of intelligence sharing, preparing Ukraine to open hands on Russian energy facilities, undermining the ability of Russia to support the long-lasting war.Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Russian economic development has been the focus of external attention, unexpectedly demonstrating resilience under the double pressure of war and sanctions, the energy export structure has also succeeded in transformation, and the Asian market share has jumped from pre-conflict 39% to 60%.
According to relevant statistics, in 2024, Russia's oil output was 5.264 billion tons, after the United States' 8.579 billion tons, and in 2024 Russia's oil exports were 2.4 billion tons (about 4.6 million barrels per day). of which, crude oil exports accounted for about 80% (12.9 billion tons), finished oil exports accounted for 20% (0.48 billion tons). In 2024, Russia's natural gas output was 629 billion cubic meters, just behind the United States' 103 billion cubic meters; in that year Russia's gas exports were 15.25 billion cubic meters, just behind the United States' 2.62 billion cubic meters.
The oil export revenue in 2024 reached $153 billion, although slightly reduced from 2023, but still accounted for 40% of the budget revenue, the importance of energy exports to Russia, which is also an important reason why Ukraine has been hitting Russian energy facilities. Ukraine recently also expanded the range of strikes, in August 2025, the Ukrainian drone forces twice attacked the key nodes of the Russian "Friendship" oil pipeline, resulting in a disruption of crude oil supply to Hungary, Slovakia and other countries for at least five days. On September 14, Russia's Kirich refinery in Leningrad caused fire due to drone crashes. The refinery processed about 17.7 million tons of Russian crude oil per year, an average of 35.5 million barrels per day, accounting for 6.4% of Russia's total
According to market estimates, recent Ukrainian attacks have resulted in Russia’s approximately 1.1 million barrels per day refining capacity shut down, equivalent to 17 percent of the country’s total refining capacity.Since August, Ukraine has launched 27 attacks on 17 Russian refineries, cumulatively paralyzing Russia’s approximately 80 million tons of annual refining capacity, accounting for 32 percent of the country’s total.
Just on October 4, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported on October 4 that the Ukrainian army carried out an attack on the Kirich Petrochemical Plant in Kirich City, Leningrad Oblast, Russia that day. Explosions and fires were recorded at the scene. The hit results are being verified. According to the report, the refinery is one of the largest oil refining enterprises in Russia, with an annual refining capacity of 18.4 million tons of crude oil.
In the opinion of the author, whether the U.S. imposed tariffs "punish" India and threatened to expand secondary sanctions, or threatened to provide Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles and expand intelligence sharing, are one of the means of the U.S. Trump administration to pressure Russia, aimed at forcing Russia to make more concessions in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict negotiations to promote the end of the Russian conflict. But once the "Tax" and AGM-158 cruise missiles are provided, it can be considered a turnaround, because before, even if Ukraine used U.S. "Army Tactical Missiles" to attack Russian targets, the United States was very cautious, and the U.S. Department of Defense has repeatedly stopped. For Russia, the threat posed by "Tax"
Once Russia's economic lifeline is severely hit, whether Russia's retaliation will gradually fade or become more fierce is also a question that needs to be considered. Recently, the Russian military's attacks on Ukraine's military targets and energy facilities have also been increasing, using hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles every few days to launch concentrated strikes on Ukraine. Therefore, the United States 'threat to provide "Tomahawk" missiles and expand the scope of intelligence sharing are also tactics used by soldiers to fight crises. The impact on the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains to be seen, how long the United States will maintain this attitude and how strong the United States will support Ukraine. How big it will be remains to be seen.