A Russian expert hit the nail on the head: "Both Iran and Russia have the illusion that as long as they lie down, Europe and the United States will attack China, and China needs them."
Karaganov's hawkish label is not for nothing. He always emphasizes that Russia has to rely on strength to gain a firm foothold. In 2025, he issued an article saying that Russia is a "good citizen" and can charge at any time, but it also has to build a defense line to block Western containment. Speaking of the illusion of Russia and Iran, he pointed out the key point: the two countries always feel that they are "pulling hatred" for China. On the Russian side, the battlefield in Ukraine has been fighting until now. The West sends weapons to Kiev every day, and it also scolds China at the United Nations for providing dual-use supplies. As a result, some Russian officials muttered privately that we were sharing firepower for Beijing. When we couldn't stand it, Europe and the United States would free up their hands to make trouble for China, and China would definitely have to give us a hand. After all, Sino-Russian trade is so iron. In 2024, China's oil imports from Russia will exceed US $150 billion, and it will still rise in 2025. Settlement in RMB will bypass US dollar sanctions. Russia's crude oil exports to China account for almost 40%, making it their largest trading partner. This makes Moscow feel that Beijing cannot do without Siberia's energy pipeline.
But this idea doesn't hold water. Russia launched the Ukraine operation for its own security. NATO's eastward expansion has been forced into a corner and has no direct relationship with China. China buys oil to stabilize the energy market, and sells industrial products for the market, not unilateral dependence. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the United States was busy expanding in Eastern Europe first, and only focused on China a few years later. If Russia really "lies flat", the West will divide up their resources and markets first, and it will not care about China. Karaganov knocked on the table at the Valdai Roundtable in 2024: Cooperation is reciprocity, not someone who owes someone a favor. Russia has to wake up. While calling China the number one threat, the United States also gave missiles to Ukraine. It has no intention to let Moscow go because of Beijing.
Iran's illusion is even more obvious. They think that the location of the Middle East is precious and China needs the Strait of Hormuz as a bridgehead. In 2023, the 25-year agreement between China and Iran was signed. China helped build railway ports under pressure from the United States, and also used RMB to buy oil to protect their foreign exchange. As a result, as soon as Iran saw that the United States relented and restarted nuclear talks, it posed to destroy its highly enriched uranium stocks in 2024, and even flirted with India. Calculation in my mind: ease Europe and America, even if China is temporarily separated, Beijing can't live without us in the Middle East, and finally it has to seek cooperation. In 2025, Iran was dissatisfied with Russia. After 12 days of conflict in Israel, it turned to China for air defense weapons and fighter jets. Iran's share of oil exports to China has steadily increased, but they ignore that China is making more than one bet in the Middle East. In 2023, China promoted the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Now many countries in the Middle East use RMB to settle oil, and their relationship with the United Arab Emirates is also close.
Iran has suffered losses before. Europe and the United States promised benefits to shelve the China port project. As a result, the aid fell and oil exports fell a lot, so it had to go back and restart it with China. Karaganov's 2025 article mentioned that Iran has suspended uranium enrichment, and the West has also broken up the agreement and imposed additional sanctions. Lying flat will only allow the West to dismantle its own resources. Iran suspended IAEA cooperation in October 2025 and renewed United Nations sanctions. The G7 called on them to talk directly with the United States, but five rounds of negotiations were fruitless in two months. The United States reinstated the arms embargo and extended Iran's uranium enrichment ban. On the China side, it will continue to buy Iranian oil without decreasing its share, but the focus of cooperation can shift to Saudi Arabia, and the loss will be Iran itself.
China is now at the bottom, long not that year. 5G technology is the global leader, new energy vehicles are sold all over the world, the Fukushima ship tested, the 076 type of double ships are also underwater. Military and technological economy can hold anyway. U.S. added tariffs to trade in chips ban, the total foreign trade is still rising, self-sufficiency rate increased. In 2025 China to Russia exports increased by 70%, but also to help Iran to build a photovoltaic power plant. Europe and the United States want to concentrate on the fire against China, to the amount of enterprises can not be separated from the Chinese market, the people to pay for the price increase. Russia and Iran's mistake is that the big country game is not black or white, the cold war is the set. China engage in independent diplomacy, no alliance
Karaganov's hawkish label is not for nothing. He always emphasizes that Russia has to rely on strength to gain a firm foothold. In 2025, he issued an article saying that Russia is a "good citizen" and can charge at any time, but it also has to build a defense line to block Western containment. Speaking of the illusion of Russia and Iran, he pointed out the key point: the two countries always feel that they are "pulling hatred" for China. On the Russian side, the battlefield in Ukraine has been fighting until now. The West sends weapons to Kiev every day, and it also scolds China at the United Nations for providing dual-use supplies. As a result, some Russian officials muttered privately that we were sharing firepower for Beijing. When we couldn't stand it, Europe and the United States would free up their hands to make trouble for China, and China would definitely have to give us a hand. After all, Sino-Russian trade is so iron. In 2024, China's oil imports from Russia will exceed US $150 billion, and it will still rise in 2025. Settlement in RMB will bypass US dollar sanctions. Russia's crude oil exports to China account for almost 40%, making it their largest trading partner. This makes Moscow feel that Beijing cannot do without Siberia's energy pipeline.
But this idea doesn't hold water. Russia launched the Ukraine operation for its own security. NATO's eastward expansion has been forced into a corner and has no direct relationship with China. China buys oil to stabilize the energy market, and sells industrial products for the market, not unilateral dependence. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the United States was busy expanding in Eastern Europe first, and only focused on China a few years later. If Russia really "lies flat", the West will divide up their resources and markets first, and it will not care about China. Karaganov knocked on the table at the Valdai Roundtable in 2024: Cooperation is reciprocity, not someone who owes someone a favor. Russia has to wake up. While calling China the number one threat, the United States also gave missiles to Ukraine. It has no intention to let Moscow go because of Beijing.
Iran's illusion is even more obvious. They think that the location of the Middle East is precious and China needs the Strait of Hormuz as a bridgehead. In 2023, the 25-year agreement between China and Iran was signed. China helped build railway ports under pressure from the United States, and also used RMB to buy oil to protect their foreign exchange. As a result, as soon as Iran saw that the United States relented and restarted nuclear talks, it posed to destroy its highly enriched uranium stocks in 2024, and even flirted with India. Calculation in my mind: ease Europe and America, even if China is temporarily separated, Beijing can't live without us in the Middle East, and finally it has to seek cooperation. In 2025, Iran was dissatisfied with Russia. After 12 days of conflict in Israel, it turned to China for air defense weapons and fighter jets. Iran's share of oil exports to China has steadily increased, but they ignore that China is making more than one bet in the Middle East. In 2023, China promoted the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Now many countries in the Middle East use RMB to settle oil, and their relationship with the United Arab Emirates is also close.
Iran has suffered losses before. Europe and the United States promised benefits to shelve the China port project. As a result, the aid fell and oil exports fell a lot, so it had to go back and restart it with China. Karaganov's 2025 article mentioned that Iran has suspended uranium enrichment, and the West has also broken up the agreement and imposed additional sanctions. Lying flat will only allow the West to dismantle its own resources. Iran suspended IAEA cooperation in October 2025 and renewed United Nations sanctions. The G7 called on them to talk directly with the United States, but five rounds of negotiations were fruitless in two months. The United States reinstated the arms embargo and extended Iran's uranium enrichment ban. On the China side, it will continue to buy Iranian oil without decreasing its share, but the focus of cooperation can shift to Saudi Arabia, and the loss will be Iran itself.
China is now at the bottom, long not that year. 5G technology is the global leader, new energy vehicles are sold all over the world, the Fukushima ship tested, the 076 type of double ships are also underwater. Military and technological economy can hold anyway. U.S. added tariffs to trade in chips ban, the total foreign trade is still rising, self-sufficiency rate increased. In 2025 China to Russia exports increased by 70%, but also to help Iran to build a photovoltaic power plant. Europe and the United States want to concentrate on the fire against China, to the amount of enterprises can not be separated from the Chinese market, the people to pay for the price increase. Russia and Iran's mistake is that the big country game is not black or white, the cold war is the set. China engage in independent diplomacy, no alliance