"Iran must move its capital!" On October 2, Iranian President Pezehizyan said to the outside world that Iran had "no choice."
What happened to Tehran, the current capital?
Basic situation in Tehran
Iran, the 17th largest country in the world, has a land area of 164,50,000 square kilometers. Do not look at their large area, in fact, the country is widely distributed in the highlands and mountains, accounting for more than one-half of the entire territory. The Arabic plateau and the Asia-European plateau pressures the huge Iranian plateau, covering most of the country's territory. Iran's overall terrain presents a four-high-middle low situation, but in the middle, in addition to a few basins, there are also mountains.
Furthermore, the desert also occupies almost a quarter of Iran’s territory, so the country’s actual habitable area is far from as large as imagined.
Its capital, Tehran, is the country's largest city and the political, economic and cultural center, ranked 121st among the world's top 500 cities in 2021.
Tehran covers an area of 1,300 square kilometers with a total population of about 9.5 million. If calculated by its radiation, the population is up to 17 million. It can be said that Tehran is a well-deserved metropolis, and its significance for the country is extraordinary.
If so, why is Tehran still facing abandonment?
As we know, Iran is a country with a very long history, with thousands of years of civilization. Tehran is already the 32nd capital in the history of the country. As early as before the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, there were rumors of moving the capital. Especially after entering the 21st century, related topics are becoming more and more hot, and today, with the development of the Internet, they have become a hot search topic.
Migration is not an easy thing, and Iran would not think about it without good reason, because Tehran faces too many problems, so they have to think about it.
First look at the disadvantages.
Tehran is located in the northern part of Iran, on the northern edge of the Iranian Highlands, at the southern foot of the Al-Burs Mountains, at an altitude of between 1,200 and 1,800 meters, and north of the world's largest lake - the Caspian Sea is about 100 kilometers away.
The span of the Erborz Mountains has had a great impact on Tehran's climate. Airflow from the north side is blocked by mountains and cannot flow through, which reduces precipitation in Tehran and makes it a relatively arid city that has long relied on water supply from reservoirs. This water supply method is not only costly, but also unstable.
As the center of Iran, Tehran consumes a lot of water, reaching about 25% of the country's total. As the global climate continues to deteriorate and relevant management is not perfect, these reservoirs are gradually on the verge of drying up, and the water crisis has become a sword of Damocles hanging over the Iranian capital.
Moreover, Iran itself is located in the Arabian Plate and European Plate Fault Zone. It is a country with frequent earthquakes, and Tehran itself is also plagued by earthquakes.
Here, it cannot withstand the ravages of earthquakes. In addition to the high probability of strong earthquakes, low-quality buildings are also a huge threat.
According to a statement by the city government of Tehran in 2021, up to 60% of buildings in the city do not meet the earthquake safety standards. To know, the city is inhabited by millions, in other words, when a strong earthquake really occurs, the number of people in danger is also at a million level!
According to the study of Iranian geologists, the earthquake cycle in Tehran is about 150 years.The last time a magnitude 7 earthquake occurred here was in 1830, and it has been 200 years since now.
You might say, isn't that good? Wouldn't it be safer if we haven't had an earthquake for so long?
On the contrary, this means that the tension generated by the movement of the plate has accumulated more than the average level for four and fifty years, and the energy stored is greater. Without the release of small earthquakes, then these energies will soon be centralized and the level of the earthquake will only be bigger and the destructive force will be stronger.
Let's look at the development of the day after tomorrow
Cities that are so dangerous have become capital, so that the population is growing, and the disadvantages are increasing, and the cities are becoming more dangerous.
At the beginning of the last century, Tehran had only about 250,000 inhabitants.After the Islamic Revolution, there was a population outbreak, with about one-fifth of the country's population crowded in Tehran's metropolitan area, bringing an even greater burden to the city.
For example, the water resources mentioned just now are already scarce, but as a result, more and more people use water, and it is inevitable that they will be exhausted. And this is just the tip of the iceberg of Tehran's "big city disease".
Pollution, a typical feature of big city diseases that we are all familiar with, is also very serious in Tehran. According to statistics, between March 2023 and March 2024, it will only take 10 days for Tehran's air quality to reach excellent levels. Especially in winter, public institutions and schools often have temporary holidays because of serious air pollution, which shows how high the pollution level here is.
Iran's Ministry of Health released a report in 2022 stating that as many as 28000 people die from air pollution alone every year in the country. In Tehran, there are 6400 people!
Moreover, as a big city, Tehran also faces the problem of land subsidence. In addition to the massive influx of people, the extraction of groundwater, as well as the geological characteristics here, have led to the increasing land subsidence in Tehran.
Scientists at the Iranian Center for Building and Housing Research once pointed out that Tehran sinks by an average of 25 centimeters per year. Obviously, the city could no longer hold on. In the display of satellite images, researchers have found that even the surrounding countryside has shown signs of sinking.
The concentration of population brings the concentration of resources. If Tehran itself is rich in resources, it would not be a problem. Unfortunately, resources are scarce here, and the concentration of resources itself carries an increase in costs. This is a very uneconomical economic account.
The above problems are serious enough. In comparison, the increasingly severe traffic congestion and insufficient water and electricity supply seem a bit unworthy of mention.
If there were no more movements, or restrictions on the influx of population, Tehran’s population would soon reach 20 million. By that time, urban governance could not be completely disrupted, and the above-mentioned issues would be aggravated, and Tehran’s collapse might also be a hit.
No wonder Baram, an earthquake expert at Islamic Assad University in Iran, said that the choice of modern Iran to take Tehran as its capital was a complete mistake.
Moving the capital? Difficult!
In other words, it is really hard to move.
Where is the new capital located?
Among the people, there are many rumors about the location of the new capital. At present, Iran is more inclined to move south and build its capital closer to the Persian Gulf. The frequency of earthquakes here is relatively lower, and access to water resources is easier. Moreover, materials shipped from the Persian Gulf can be transported to and from the new capital by shorter routes, greatly reducing costs and thus promoting economic development.
But the migration is not so easy, otherwise Iran will not be able to take action for decades.
First, according to the current situation, even if the migration really starts and is limited by the speed and scale of the migration, Tehran’s big city disease will not necessarily be relieved quickly. On the other hand, how the new capital can avoid the re-emergence of big city disease is also a problem for Iran, and it is currently difficult to find an effective solution.
Secondly, there is no money. Iran's Ministry of the Interior once gave a data: the country's budget for moving the capital may be as high as US$100 billion. For comparison, their national budget for 2023 is only US$4.5 billion. In particular, the sanctions imposed by European and American countries on Iran have given it almost no opportunity to obtain external financing.
Third, the cycle of moving the capital is too long. Whether it is land expropriation or the relocation batches of government departments, it will be subject to bargaining from vested interests. In addition to increasing the cost of moving the capital, it will also significantly delay the progress of moving the capital.
Therefore, some experts suggest that instead of paying a high cost for the migration, it is better to use this money and mind to consider how to save Tehran.The problem in Tehran is serious, but it is not completely unresolved.If the Iranian authorities really take this issue into consideration, then it will be much more painful to resolve the existing problem than the migration.
It is precisely because of so many contradictions that the Iranian authorities are so hesitant. Coupled with the extremely complex situation in Iran, they are already struggling to deal with countries such as the United States and Israel, and it is difficult for them to devote enough energy to formulating matters related to moving the capital.
Therefore, even if Pezziyan is so concerned about the migration and speaks of the issue so seriously, it does not mean that the migration can be done quickly.