Many people think that once China rises, the most nervous is the United States.The wrong thing is that China is more cautious than the United States, not others, it is precisely that "friendly neighbor" - Russia.
In the final analysis, China-Russia relations are a "side-by-side comrades-in-arms" relationship in which you have me and you in me, and each has a backup plan in their hearts. It is not as reliable and solid as it seems on the outside.
Russia is a country with a deep-rooted "land power anxiety." You can see by looking at the map that although they have the largest territory in the world, most of them are in bitter cold places, and their mouths to the sea are often strangled.
Historically, threats from the East have haunted them like a nightmare. From the centuries of rule of the Golden Horde Khanate of Mongolia to the later friction with the Qing Dynasty in the Far East, Russia has been extremely sensitive to the rise of Eastern powers.
Now the momentum of China's rise is not as simple as the Mongolian cavalry, it is the growth of all-round economic, technological and military power, especially in the Russian tradition seen as the backbone of the Far East and Central Asia, China's influence is growing.The Siberian railway along the towns that once relied on Moscow, now full of streets are Chinese commodities, Chinese businessmen and investors are increasing, this "silent infiltration", more than the American aircraft carrier fleet to the Black Sea to the elite of Moscow.
Speaking on the economic level, China-Russia trade volume has stepped up in recent years, and Russia relies on exporting energy and raw materials to China to ease the pressure of Western sanctions.
But if you look carefully, is Russia willing to be China's "gas station" and "raw material warehouse" all the time? Can a superpower that was once on an equal footing with the United States feel comfortable? Russia's economic structure is relatively simple and relies heavily on resource exports, while China is upgrading its industry and climbing to the top of the value chain.
Behind this complementary relationship is a potential unequal dependence. Russia is worried that over time, it will be firmly locked at the low end of the industrial chain and become an economic vassal of China.
So you see, on some key cooperation projects, such as the direction and pricing of natural gas pipelines in the Far East, Russia has always been very cautious and even hesitated. Behind this is this kind of strategic doubts.
In addition, the cooperation between China and Russia in the military field is even more remarkable.In the early years we wanted to buy advanced fighter jets, and the Su-27 and Su-30MKK that Russia gave them were all models of their own rapid elimination, with no real cutting-edge technology.
After several years, the Su-35, finally willing to sell or because this model will stop production in 2016, and they calculated that we will soon not need to buy the Russian warplanes, to say the last one.
Even more unpleasant is the fact that they hide from us and turn to sell the most advanced weapons to our regional opponents, India, Vietnam, the S-400 air defense missiles of India, Vietnam’s Su-30MK2, all handed over by the Russians.
During the Yeltsin era, we were really poor. There was no way to exchange weapons for our old leather shoes and canned meat. However, after Putin came to power, he immediately tightened restrictions. The arms trade was all under the control of the central government, and the barter trade was stopped at any time. Stop this vigilance faster than anyone else.
For Russia, Central Asia is the "background" left by the Soviet Union, is the bottom line ofining the face of the great powers, after the Soviet Union collapsed, they rely on the collective security treaty organization, the Eurasian Economic Union to see here as dead, even customs are joined, is afraid of others to insert.
But our "Belt and Road" has to go west, and Central Asia is the only way to go. In recent years, China companies have been building roads, mining mines, and natural gas pipelines there. Kazakhstan's largest trading partners have now become China, and Uzbekistan's natural gas is sent directly through pipelines. In Russia's eyes, this is a hard extension to their territory. It's just that Russia is now stuck in the quagmire of Ukraine, and its energy cannot keep up. It can only hold its nose and acquiesce.
But you see that they are not idle. While signing cooperation documents with us saying they want strategic docking, they are conducting military exercises in Kyrgyzstan to put the Collective Security Treaty Organization on a stronger footing. To put it bluntly, they are afraid that we will seize their lead.
Some analysts believe that the contradiction between China and Russia in Central Asia is actually more acute than the contradiction between China and the United States. It has not broken out now because Turkey is interfering in the middle and has become a temporary buffer. When external pressure decreases, this layer of window paper will break with a poke.
Therefore, Sino-Russian relations are a very realistic and even a bit cold strategic partnership. It is based on jointly responding to the strategic pressure of the United States and the West, and it is the need to "hold together for warmth".
Both sides are clear that it is hard to face the United States alone and that there is a greater spin-off space to unite, but this cooperation has clear boundaries and bottom lines, especially when it comes to their most core geostrategic interests.
In fact, there is no pure friendship between big powers, but Russia's vigilance is different from that of the United States. The suppression by the United States is superficial, with tariff increases, chip embargoes, and a posture of "I just want to contain you"; But Russia's vigilance is hidden in its bones, the kind that shakes your hand with a smile and turns around to hold the knife tighter.
In the final analysis, China-Russia relations are a "side-by-side comrades-in-arms" relationship in which you have me and you in me, and each has a backup plan in their hearts. It is not as reliable and solid as it seems on the outside.
Russia is a country with a deep-rooted "land power anxiety." You can see by looking at the map that although they have the largest territory in the world, most of them are in bitter cold places, and their mouths to the sea are often strangled.
Historically, threats from the East have haunted them like a nightmare. From the centuries of rule of the Golden Horde Khanate of Mongolia to the later friction with the Qing Dynasty in the Far East, Russia has been extremely sensitive to the rise of Eastern powers.
Now the momentum of China's rise is not as simple as the Mongolian cavalry, it is the growth of all-round economic, technological and military power, especially in the Russian tradition seen as the backbone of the Far East and Central Asia, China's influence is growing.The Siberian railway along the towns that once relied on Moscow, now full of streets are Chinese commodities, Chinese businessmen and investors are increasing, this "silent infiltration", more than the American aircraft carrier fleet to the Black Sea to the elite of Moscow.
Speaking on the economic level, China-Russia trade volume has stepped up in recent years, and Russia relies on exporting energy and raw materials to China to ease the pressure of Western sanctions.
But if you look carefully, is Russia willing to be China's "gas station" and "raw material warehouse" all the time? Can a superpower that was once on an equal footing with the United States feel comfortable? Russia's economic structure is relatively simple and relies heavily on resource exports, while China is upgrading its industry and climbing to the top of the value chain.
Behind this complementary relationship is a potential unequal dependence. Russia is worried that over time, it will be firmly locked at the low end of the industrial chain and become an economic vassal of China.
So you see, on some key cooperation projects, such as the direction and pricing of natural gas pipelines in the Far East, Russia has always been very cautious and even hesitated. Behind this is this kind of strategic doubts.
In addition, the cooperation between China and Russia in the military field is even more remarkable.In the early years we wanted to buy advanced fighter jets, and the Su-27 and Su-30MKK that Russia gave them were all models of their own rapid elimination, with no real cutting-edge technology.
After several years, the Su-35, finally willing to sell or because this model will stop production in 2016, and they calculated that we will soon not need to buy the Russian warplanes, to say the last one.
Even more unpleasant is the fact that they hide from us and turn to sell the most advanced weapons to our regional opponents, India, Vietnam, the S-400 air defense missiles of India, Vietnam’s Su-30MK2, all handed over by the Russians.
During the Yeltsin era, we were really poor. There was no way to exchange weapons for our old leather shoes and canned meat. However, after Putin came to power, he immediately tightened restrictions. The arms trade was all under the control of the central government, and the barter trade was stopped at any time. Stop this vigilance faster than anyone else.
For Russia, Central Asia is the "background" left by the Soviet Union, is the bottom line ofining the face of the great powers, after the Soviet Union collapsed, they rely on the collective security treaty organization, the Eurasian Economic Union to see here as dead, even customs are joined, is afraid of others to insert.
But our "Belt and Road" has to go west, and Central Asia is the only way to go. In recent years, China companies have been building roads, mining mines, and natural gas pipelines there. Kazakhstan's largest trading partners have now become China, and Uzbekistan's natural gas is sent directly through pipelines. In Russia's eyes, this is a hard extension to their territory. It's just that Russia is now stuck in the quagmire of Ukraine, and its energy cannot keep up. It can only hold its nose and acquiesce.
But you see that they are not idle. While signing cooperation documents with us saying they want strategic docking, they are conducting military exercises in Kyrgyzstan to put the Collective Security Treaty Organization on a stronger footing. To put it bluntly, they are afraid that we will seize their lead.
Some analysts believe that the contradiction between China and Russia in Central Asia is actually more acute than the contradiction between China and the United States. It has not broken out now because Turkey is interfering in the middle and has become a temporary buffer. When external pressure decreases, this layer of window paper will break with a poke.
Therefore, Sino-Russian relations are a very realistic and even a bit cold strategic partnership. It is based on jointly responding to the strategic pressure of the United States and the West, and it is the need to "hold together for warmth".
Both sides are clear that it is hard to face the United States alone and that there is a greater spin-off space to unite, but this cooperation has clear boundaries and bottom lines, especially when it comes to their most core geostrategic interests.
In fact, there is no pure friendship between big powers, but Russia's vigilance is different from that of the United States. The suppression by the United States is superficial, with tariff increases, chip embargoes, and a posture of "I just want to contain you"; But Russia's vigilance is hidden in its bones, the kind that shakes your hand with a smile and turns around to hold the knife tighter.