Pyongyang is back home.
On October 10, the 80th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean Labour Party entered the final countdown. The festival atmosphere has long been filled in the streets of Pyongyang, and tens of thousands of soldiers are conducting their final exercises at the military parade in Merlin.
Commercial satellite photos show that since June, it has been extremely busy here: equipment vehicles move frequently, tents are lined up on the training ground, and the lights for night exercises are often on until early morning. All signs indicate that this will be an unprecedented scale of the "winner's grand celebration".
But more remarkable than the parade itself is the dark flow on the diplomatic stage.
This military parade is more of a diplomatic test.
North Korea has been distributing hero posts since the beginning of the year. At present, three foreign dignitaries have confirmed their attendance: Medvedev of Russia, Surin of Vietnam (General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam) and Thong Lun of Laos (President of the State). Although there are not many people, everyone is particular.
The arrangement was clever: showing both importance and focusing on inter-party exchanges, avoiding the topic of directly stimulating U.S. military cooperation.
General Secretary of Vietnam Sulin personally: This is the highest level of strength. last year, the Vietnamese Defense Minister just visited the DPRK to resume defence cooperation, now a hand again to Pyongyang, the socialist brotherhood is full.
The itinerary of Laos Tolon is subtle: the DPRK says he plans to visit the DPRK, but the time may be before the parade.
What attracts the most attention is who China sends.
Within a month, North Korean Foreign Minister Trudeau has visited China twice. This woman is not simple - from childhood in Beijing to study, fluent in English, known as "American Times", was a translator when Clinton visited the DPRK, and is now the diplomatic core under Kim Jong-un.
During his meeting with Cui Shanji on September 28, Foreign Minister Wang Yi particularly emphasized: "The traditional friendship between China and North Korea created and carefully cultivated by the older generation of leaders of the two parties and two countries is a common precious asset for both sides. Maintaining, consolidating and developing China-North Korea relations has always been the unswerving strategic policy of the China party and government."
China will send what specifications of the delegation? referring to the 70th anniversary of the founding of the DPRK in 2018, sending the Politburo committee leadership delegation to attend, is the "middle up specification". this time Kim Jong-un just visited China's "93th parade", is China "returning" to a higher level?
The military parade is expected to officially start at 0: 00 on October 10th, continuing the night mode of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Party in 2020. The lighting effect at night can add to the spectacular atmosphere and show the military strength of North Korea.
South Korea's Joint Staff Office announced that North Korea is preparing for a military parade of tens of thousands of people, and the South Korean military has captured signs of movement of North Korea's vehicles and military equipment.
While no new weapons systems are yet to be discovered, this is likely only temporary.
Commercial satellite images show that the North Korean West Sea satellite launch site appears to be preparing for a new engine test.The new intercontinental missile "Marscan-20" with a new engine is likely to be tested first and then tested.
North Korea may show solid-fuel intercontinental missiles, the range can cover the U.S. mainland, can also carry nuclear warheads, is the core of North Korea's strategic deterrence. at the same time, based on the Russian experience of attack drones and other conventional equipment will also appear, building a dual system of nuclear and normal.
In the face of this grand display of North Korea, three countries are particularly restless.
First and foremost is South Korea. Lee Jae-myung's government may regret it now. In the last month or so, it has obviously fallen behind in the East Asian diplomatic field. Perhaps it should have participated more actively in this diplomatic game.
Now, South Korea can only watch as China, North Korea and Russia approach, but it is gradually marginalized in peninsula affairs.
Although Trump and Kim Jong-un have had "old relations", the North-US relationship is always full of uncertainty.The parade became the stage for North Korea to show its muscles to the United States, and the status quo of the U.S. military-industrial complex, makes it seem impatient in the face of North Korean military progress.
Japan may be the most anxious one. Every missile test conducted by North Korea makes the Japanese archipelago uneasy. Now that North Korea is demonstrating a new intercontinental missile with a range that is enough to cover the entire territory of Japan, how can this not make Tokyo nervous?
In any case, this military parade is a critical moment for North Korea to unite the hearts of the people and show off its muscles. We will continue to pay attention to the follow-up progress.