In turn, this has to be said from the beginning. Russian President Vladimir Putin at the annual meeting of the Vardy International Debate Club on October 2, 2025, threw a sentence to the western media to blow up the pot. The whole venue had 140 guests from China, Iran and other 42 countries, it was to talk about the multi-polar world and global governance, as a result, Putin drew the topic directly to the conflict in Russia and NATO's east expansion.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict began on February 24, 2022, and now for more than three years, Russia has been called a “special military operation” and the West is determined to be an aggression. Putin has always felt that NATO’s expansion to the east was a guiding flame, especially Finland joined NATO in March 2023, officially hit the border line directly to Russia’s doorstep. Russia didn’t act immediately, but this affair could not be stopped on anyone. Putin has repeatedly stressed in his speech that if NATO had not taken such a step, this conflict could have been avoided. But the reality is that the North has not only failed to catch up, but also launched the “East Guards” operation on September 12, 2025 to strengthen border patrol. This makes Russia feel that the West is at the bottom line.
Putin's speech lasted for 220 minutes, ranging from Russia's domestic and foreign affairs to US-Russia relations, and also killing Trump by the way. Trump turned his face faster than turning over a book. In the first half of the year, he also suspended weapons assistance and intelligence sharing to Ukraine, causing the Ukrainian army to lose nearly 1,000 square kilometers of territory in Kursk Oblast. During that time, from August 2024 to March 2025, Ukrainian troops barely held their positions against an abandoned natural gas pipeline. However, as soon as assistance was cut off, Russian troops took advantage of the loopholes and raided them. As a result, Zelensky's territorial exchange proposal went straight away. Trump did this, on the one hand, because he wanted to save money; on the other hand, the domestic election pressure was high, and he didn't want to be labeled as "indefinitely involved". But in September, he made another 180-degree turn, restarted aid, and even listed the Tomahawk missile as an option. This missile has a long range and can directly hit the Russian mainland. Of course, Putin is anxious.
Speaking of Trump, at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23, he publicly called Russia a "paper tiger." Trump said that Russia has not captured Ukraine for more than three years and its strength is no better than that of others. He also threatened to increase tariffs to force Russia to stop. A Kremlin spokesman responded at the time, saying that Trump should use "bear" to describe Russia. Putin directly escalated his response at the Valdai Forum. He asked, if Russia is a paper tiger, what is the entire NATO? The Russian army can still advance the front line in the face of NATO pressure. This is not something that can be done on paper. When Trump said this, Western media applauded, but within two days, the drone incident at Munich Airport slapped them in the face.
On the night of October 2, Munich airport was interrupted by an unknown drone, flight stopped for 17 hours, affecting thousands of people. The radar signal blinked, controls can only block the airspace, and passengers stayed overnight in the terminal building. After the German authorities investigated, it was found to be related to NATO's "Eastern Guards" operations, Russian drones and fighter jets have "invaded" European airspace several times since September 10. Poland and Lithuania have similar situations. It is not a coincidence, Putin's warning has just fallen, things have come. Western media thought it was a Russian provocation, but it is a fact that their air defense system faults, 144 unmanned interference incidents have been accumulated from the end of August 2025 to this number,
Putin did not just make harsh remarks in his speech. He also promised to continue to supply the United States with enriched uranium, which is fuel for nuclear power plants. The United States itself does not produce enough and has to rely on Russia. In other words, this business is worth hundreds of millions of dollars every year, and Russia accounts for 70% of the U.S. market. Putin said that easing US-Russia relations is in Russia's interests, but only if the United States stops firing. Restoring comprehensive relations is a good thing, but if the United States really gives Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, the situation will be dangerous. Putin named the name, which would trigger a new round of upgrades and would not change the battlefield, but Russia had to respond. The shadow of a nuclear arms race is emerging again. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty is about to expire, and the United States must show sincerity to extend it.
Looking at Russia’s interior, Putin faces three mountains: territorial dispute, scope of power and war economy. September 30 is the third anniversary of the four-state referendum, and Putin reiterates his desire to defend the “millions of compatriots” there. Europe and the United States have agreed to support Ukraine’s restoration of the 1991 territory, which means that Putin wants a ceasefire in the real line is difficult. Russia paid too much, returning to the country is equal to abandoning. The scope of power is worse, December 8th, 2024, the Assad regime collapsed in Syria, the opposition flashed into Damascus, and the Assad family fled to Russia. This caused Russia to lose the face of its base in the Middle East, withdrawal of the aircraft to pull up the warehouse. Iran also supported Ass
Economically, war has become a double-edged sword. On October 1, Russia launched an autumn conscription of 135,000 troops, the largest in the past nine years, and the upper age limit was mentioned at 30 years old. The conscription order was signed on September 29th and was implemented from October 1st to December 31st. New recruits had to fill the gap on the front line, and 160,000 were recruited in the spring. The military industry relies on this to become active, factories work overtime, and welding sparks spill everywhere, stimulating GDP. But what about an armistice? If interest groups don't do it, once the economy loosens, the population crisis and Western sanctions will crush everything. Russia has been supported by energy exports and arms sales in recent years, but the West has become increasingly stuck.