Recently, former German Chancellor Merkel broke the news in an interview with Hungarian media: Poland is one of the driving forces behind the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict!
This news is surprising!
According to the information we all know, the United States is the important driver of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and Biden continues to encourage Zelensky and Russia to carry hard, leading to the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Now, how has Poland become an important "driving force" behind it?
Now, it is really shocking to say such a news from Merkel's mouth.
The news comes from the memories of Merkel in an interview.
Merkel, known as the "Iron Lady of Germany", served as German Chancellor for 16 years from 2005 to October 2021.
As for the length of this term, in Europe, it is very uncommon.This is enough to illustrate Merkel's excellence.
The world’s assessment of Merkel is very high: she can handle the relations between the United States and the medium-sized powers well, she can handle the relations with Russia well, and she can handle the various problems in her own country.
It is not exaggerated to say that Merkel can be compared to Mrs. Thatcher, and even to be better than Mrs. Thatcher in governing ideas and foreign strategy.
When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Merkel had already stepped down from office. Many people commented that if Merkel was in office, the Russia-Ukraine war might not be able to start. Merkel's relationship with Putin is still good.
According to Merkel's recollections, four months before she left office, that is, in June 2001, she and French President Macron discussed and proposed a "negotiation model between the EU and Russia" at the EU meeting.
This model will help alleviate conflicts and maintain the relationship between the EU and Russia.
However, during that discussion, Poland firmly opposed Merkel and Macron's proposal, while the three Baltic countries fully echoed Poland.
This has led to a phenomenon of “disunity” in the EU-27.
According to Merkel, the lack of solidarity in Europe, Poland and other countries are unwilling to negotiate with Russia, which has led to the sharp deterioration of Russian-European-American relations and eventually the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
From Merkel’s perspective, Poland is reluctant to resolve potential conflicts with Russia through political dialogue, while the Baltic countries support Poland’s views, which has led to the EU’s disunity, laying the pen on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February 2022.
In addition, Merkel believes that the influence of the new coronavirus is also the spark of the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, because it is not easy to meet, which has led Russia toward political extremism.
[The question is, why was Poland unwilling to engage in political dialogue with Russia at that time?]
Why is Poland unwilling to engage in political dialogue with Russia?
This issue involves both historical and geopolitical aspects.
First of all, due to historical issues, the relationship between Poland and Russia is not good.
Poland's ancestors were also rich, and the former Principality of Poland-Lithuania even conquered Moscow.
However, with the great influence of Tsars such as Peter I and Ekaterina, the Russian Empire achieved its full rise.
At the end of the eighteenth century, Poland was directly "divided" by Russia, Prussia and other countries, and Poland disappeared since then.
In 1809, with the support of Napoleon, Poland was re-established as the "Duchy of Warsaw", a satellite state of France. After Napoleon's defeat, the "Duchy of Warsaw" was divided up again.
More than a hundred years later, Tsarist Russia was overthrown by Soviet Russia, and Poland was re-established. At the same time, the three Baltic countries reappeared on the historical stage.
After World War I, Poland seemed to rise, but after World War II, Poland was again divided up by the Soviet Union and Germany, and Poland disappeared again.
Since then, the Soviet Union has produced the world-shocking "Katin tragedy" on Polish soil.
Although the Soviet Union supported a new Poland after World War II, the gap between the two countries still exists for a long time.
Poland was divided three times, each with Russia (the Soviet Union), which made the Poles see as a disgrace.
It's a feud, so it's not easy to negotiate together.
Therefore, Poland is not interested in the negotiations between the EU and Russia. On the contrary, Poland is very happy to see that "the EU confronts Russia and contains and attacks Russia".
Let us look at geopolitical issues.
There is an idiom in China called "The rabbit dies and the fox mourns" and another idiom called "The lips are dead and the teeth are cold."
Russia will take Crimea, which belongs to Ukraine, and has long supported local armed groups in the eastern region.
This worries Poland, which is close to Ukraine.
According to past history, if Russia develops strongly, it will expand, and if Russia occupies the territory of Ukraine no matter what, the next one may be "Poland".
Poland no longer wants to “disappear” for the fourth time.
From Poland's perspective, it must confront Russia head-on, insisting that Russia return to Crimea in Ukraine, and insisting that Russia give up its support for local armed forces in eastern Ukraine.
To be honest, Poland believes that the hard hold is the response, not negotiations to ease the conflict with Russia.
Similarly, the three Baltic states have a similar fate to Poland.
Therefore, in June 2021, Poland opposed Merkel and Macron's political negotiations with Russia to ease conflicts.
[Where should Poland go in the future?]
The country of Poland, which sometimes overestimates itself, always thinks that it can change the pattern of the EU and Russia, and always thinks that Russia can be defeated as long as the EU (NATO) insists.
A while ago, just because some drones arrived above Poland, Poland wrote a lot about this.
Not only attracted the British, French, German gatherings, but also closed the ports of Belarus.
After the military exercises of Britain, France, Germany and other countries, Poland was still reluctant to open the port of Belarus, leaving the "Central European ranks" a massive stagnation.
Poland's purpose is to put pressure on China through the China-Europe train, let China put pressure on Russia, and achieve the result of Russia's compromise and concession.
It was unthinkable that China soon had a response, quickly launched the "Arctic navigation route", and began to work on the "cross-Caspian corridor", which caused the Poles to panic, and quickly opened the ports adjacent to Belarus.
If Poland thinks about how to block Russia, how to block China, it is difficult to succeed, and it takes huge risks.
If Poland and the European Union provoke Russia and the war further expands, although Poland will not be destroyed, it will definitely suffer a very severe blow from Russia. You know, among NATO members, in addition to the three Baltic countries and Finland, Poland is the closest to Russia.
The most critical issue is that Poland has played the role of "anti-Russian Depth Charge" all the year round, which is too hated by Russians!
Merkel's memories make us clear a period of history. If Poland had not opposed Merkel and Macron's proposals, there was a high probability that the Russia-Ukraine war would not have been fought, and countless young people would not have died on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield...