In October, two seemingly irrelevant events occurred, one was the resumption of direct flights between China and India, and the other was that Pakistani astronauts were about to travel to China for space training.
On the surface, flights and space are incompatible, but what is revealed behind this is the subtle changes in the pattern of South Asia. Especially on India's side, the sudden release of direct flights that have been suspended for five years is not only a matter of convenient transportation, but more like a diplomatic gift with a "clear signal" to China.
Most interestingly, this step, Trump was unexpected, and Modi had a number in his mind.
Why did India actively "Sunshine" at this time? five years without moving, and the wind direction changed overnight?
The irresistible reality is that the economy allows India to actively approach China
In the past few years, India's attitude toward China has been said to be cold treatment, and it does not appear to be broken, in fact, a line is slowly sticking.
But things cannot be delayed forever, especially when it comes to the economy. The longer they delay, the more direct the consequences.
In recent years, India shouted to engage in "Made in India", but raw materials, parts, equipment many still have to come from China, the mouth said "to depend on", but the reality does not cooperate. some industries because of the tension in China-India relations, supply is unstable, prices go up, business days are also going through more and more difficult.
The direct flight has been cut off for five years, the personnel communication is not smooth, the freight is also going around, the logistics cost is high, and the efficiency has become a problem.
Some companies have long been unable to sit still and have shouted to the government, hoping to resume normal economic and trade exchanges. After all, not all industries can be "decoupled", especially the manufacturing industry, where intermediate links are indispensable. The Modi government sees clearly that if it continues to hold on like this, not only will exports suffer, but domestic employment, prices, and investment confidence will also suffer problems.
Moreover, India says to reduce its dependence on China, while the other side is quietly relaxing some restrictions.Some areas are still on the surface, and cooperation has begun to resume.
The resumption of flights, of course, is the way for these "silent cooperation."It seems like just the resumption of shipping, in fact is the opening of the door to the resumption of contact. For India, to continue the confrontation, the losses will only be more, especially in the moment that you want to pull the economy, this bill has not been delayed.
The United States has changed its face, and India is beginning to understand
Let's talk about the United States. At the beginning, India had expectations for the United States. It wanted to make more appearances on the international stage with the support of the United States. At the same time, it also wanted to have more chips in negotiations with China.
But the reality quickly hit the face. In the middle of 2025, the Trump administration suddenly announced tariffs on India's export goods, on the grounds that India did not stand side by side on the Russian-Ukrainian issue.
What made people even more angry was that the United States 'attitude towards Pakistan made a 180-degree turn. High-standard reception, long-term talks, and a set of procedures have been completed. India can clearly see it and understand it in its heart: the friendship of the United States is unreliable.
In particular, Trump has also publicly spoken about the need to "mediate" the contradiction between India and Pakistan, which seems to be on track in India.
India has always insisted that the matters between India and Pakistan should be solved by itself, without the need for a third party to intervene. This kind of remark, in the eyes of New Delhi, is simply a naked provocation.
Over time, the voice in India has also begun to change. more and more people are calling for no longer to rely on the United States and have their own arguments.
Especially at a time when geopolitics are becoming more and more complex, once you are dragged into a certain boat by the United States, you may have to follow it to the end. That may not be the outcome India wants.
As a result, "strategic autonomy" has been put on the agenda again. To put it bluntly, India is beginning to realize that it can't put all its eggs in one basket, especially when this basket is always turned over.
At this time, look back at China, although there are frictions, there are differences, but at least economically is a partner that brings benefits. India also understands that if you really want to think is standing steadfast in the global south, relying only on the United States can not, more legs walk.
The resumption of flights is a signal: India is not ready to hang itself again on some camp, but wants to regain its own rhythm.
Modi calculated well, behind the route is general consideration
On the surface, the resumption of direct flights seems to be an economic "technical decision", but in fact it hides a bigger game of chess for Modi. India will usher in a new round of general elections in 2025, and the economic report card is directly related to Modi's election.
At the moment, inflation pressure is high, manufacturing is weak, the employment situation of young people is tense, without adjustment, the support rate is likely to be a problem.
What's more, although India has been active on the global stage in recent years, in the final analysis, it has been marginalized in many cases. I went to the meeting, but the sound was not loud.
The Western-led issues often bypass India’s core interests, making India feel like it is on the table, but it is not in the hand. In this case, easing relations with China is not only conducive to stability in South Asia, but also helps India to fight for more support in the global South. After all, China’s influence in these countries is not small, and there is also a wide space for cooperation.
For example, recent Pakistani astronauts to go to China to train this matter, on the surface has nothing to do with India, but in fact for India, it is a reminder: China in high-tech, space these fields have gone ahead.
If India continues to confront blindly, it may miss some cooperation opportunities. Especially in resource fields such as rare earths and lithium mines, although India has resources, its processing capabilities are limited, and China has formed a system in this regard. If there is demand in the future and the relationship is not smooth, cooperation will not be possible.
So from all angles, Modi did not make this move early, but he stepped on the spot. He is very clear that any further stalemate between China and India will be detrimental to India's development.
The resumption of direct flights is not only a stop loss for the "cold treatment" of the past five years, but also paves the way for possible future changes. The key point is, not waiting for the face of the United States and not being influenced by external rhythms, this is the independent diplomacy that India really wants.
One step down, the situation has changed.
The resumption of China-India direct flight, on the surface, is a traffic message, in fact, a temperature change in the relationship between the great powers. For India, it is a pragmatic adjustment, and a strategic shift.
It responded to the actual needs of the domestic economy and was also a calm response to U.S. pressure.More importantly, it released a signal that India was no longer willing to wait passively, but to actively recover its space within the region.
This step, Trump did not expect, because he still thought that India would always follow the United States, but Modi was clear that going to this day, continue to confront, will only leave the opportunity away.
Re-contacting, not a compromise, but a strategy, is to give India more possibilities.
In the future, there will definitely be a pull between China and India, but now there is at least one platform for re-dialogue. The aircraft has flown, people can move, goods can go, and words can talk. How to go next, depends on how the two sides seize this opportunity.
Source: Indian Embassy in China: Direct flights between China and India will resume before the end of October--2025 - 10 -02 22:57·Observer Network