Source: People's Evening News
Today is the Mid-Autumn Festival. In China, it is a day of thousands of lights and family reunion. However, on the other side of the world, the people of Gaza are still suffering from war and uncertainty. It is also on this day that delegations from Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) will be in Egypt to negotiate a new round of ceasefire agreement.
According to the statement of the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the talks between the two sides will focus on the "20-point plan" proposed by Trump to discuss the on-site conditions and detailed arrangements for the exchange of personnel.
From the outside, this is a plan that is “not perfect, but there is always better than nothing.”Because of the internal differences between the two sides, the prospects for this negotiation are still full of uncertainty.
Let's first look at Israel's considerations. For Israel, achieving the return of all detainees is the top priority at present. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly reiterated this point in a recent speech. But at the same time, he also drew two clear red lines: first, during the first phase of the ceasefire, the Israeli army will continue to remain in the Gaza Strip; second, the ultimate goal remains to disarm Hamas and demilitarize Gaza.
However, Netanyahu's government is facing tremendous pressure. Far-right political forces in Israel have criticized the negotiations. Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gvir even once again threatened to dissolve the government, insisting on the complete elimination of Hamas. Therefore, although it is difficult for all parties to explicitly oppose the primary task of rescuing detainees, the bottom line of Netanyahu and Israel's far-right political forces may be difficult to shake.
What Israel's far-right firmly opposes is precisely what Hamas will insist on to the death. The current signal from Hamas is that they are willing to negotiate the release of all detainees and are open to discussing many details. But the core problem is that for Hamas, especially its military branch in Gaza, disarmament is a key issue of life and death, and it is difficult for Hamas to compromise on this point.
Therefore, some analysts believe that the core contradiction in achieving a ceasefire in Gaza is that Israel insists on disarming Hamas, but Hamas rejects this and demands the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops. Even U.S. mediation will be difficult to bridge this fundamental difference.
It is worth noting that although news came from Gaza that the Israeli army had withdrawn from some areas, air strikes and shelling continued, causing a large number of civilian casualties. Such a reality will undoubtedly make Hamas full of doubts about Israel and the United States 'commitments and make negotiations more difficult.
Although the door to negotiations is open again, the road to peace is still shrouded in fog. How far this negotiation can go and when the people of Gaza can usher in a truly peaceful "reunion day" depends on how the parties make a balance between reality and the bottom line.
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撰稿&视频 王若弦
Editor of Deep Sea