On October 4, the former minister in charge of economic security, Cao市早苗, won the self-government party president election.
With the advantage of 185 votes against 156 votes, she defeated Xiaoqiang Intu, becoming the first female president of the People's Party, and is expected to become the first female prime minister of Japan.
The 64-year-old political veteran, who has been elected President of the Democratic Party three times since 2019, has lost the first two times to菅义伟 and石破茂, respectively.
This time it finally paid off.
The victory of the faction trade.
Takashi Saami was born in Nara Prefecture, Japan in 1961. He served as several ministers of state in Shinzo Abe's cabinet.
Described as having a "strongly conservative political reputation", he is a close ally of former Prime Minister Abe.
In the first round of voting, takaichi sanae won 119 party votes and 64 parliamentary votes, ranking first with a total of 183 votes.
Koizumi Shinjiro ranked second with 84 votes for party members and 80 votes for parliamentarians, totaling 164 votes.
Third, Lin Feng is getting 134 votes, but failed to enter the final.
After entering the second round, the statements of the key character,麻生太郎, became a turning point.
The self-government party’s top adviser, who has a network of more than forty lawmakers, made it clear that “the final vote in support of the high market” directly affected a large number of lawmakers’ choices.
At the same time, the first round of departure of the Mushroom Sensitive did not give unified instructions, but instead allowed supporters to "value the bond between comrades to bring action", which is equivalent to the implicit flow of partially conservative parliamentarians to the high-market camp.
This kind of faction trading is not new in Japanese politics, which is evident this time.
Takaichi sanae came to power not by a clear policy agenda, but by the binding of interests and job commitments of the conservative camp.
Strong positions raise concerns.
Takaichi sanae has long appeared as a representative of the far-right in Japan, and has visited the Yasukuni Shrine publicly many times.
They deny the history of the Nanjing Holocaust and promote the “China Threat Theory.”
During the election campaign, she also spread false information about "foreigners kicking deer in Nara" to incite anti-immigration sentiment.
Although the rumors were refuted by the management, this practice still won the support of some far-right voters.
On the Taiwan Province issue, takaichi sanae's position is equally radical.
In April 2025, she led a delegation to visit Taiwan and met with leaders of Taiwan.
Taiwan is called Japan's "irreplaceable and important strategic partner" and openly advocates strengthening the so-called "Japan-Taiwan cooperation" in defense, semiconductors and other fields.
At the press conference after being elected, when asked whether he would continue to attend the Yakuza Shrine, Cao市早苗 replied,
Considering the impact on diplomacy, "appropriate judgments will be made as appropriate, and it must not be made a diplomatic issue".
This ambiguous statement, which neither explicitly promises not to worship nor indicates that it will stop such provocative acts, leaves great uncertainty.
Domestic pressures are facing multiple pressures
After takaichi sanae takes office, all kinds of domestic pressures should not be underestimated.
Japan's economic growth is sluggish, and the proportion of central government debt to GDP has remained high for a long time. Takashi proposed to promote economic growth during the election campaign, but it is unclear how to do this.
Japan has experienced several rounds of fiscal stimulus, and the effect has always been limited.
If Gao Shi wants to boost the economy with large-scale fiscal expenditures, it will only further increase the debt burden and may eventually backfire on her political achievements.
In terms of relations with the United States, the high market faces a dilemma. During the election campaign, she proposed to "reduce dependence on the United States" and advocated that Japan should have a "Japan first" strategy.
The reality is that Japan's security and economy are highly dependent on the United States, and its export industry is inseparable from the American market.
If we really want to reduce our dependence on the United States, the Japanese export industry will lose stability, and if we continue to stick closely with the United States, the campaign promise will be challenged.
Factional politics within the Liberal Democratic Party is also a big problem.
The foundation for the support of Gao's early-mortem comes from the conservative camp, but other factions within the party will not necessarily cooperate fully.
If she wants to promote real reforms, it will inevitably affect the interests gained, and a rebound within the party is inevitable.
If you choose to compromise, you will be criticized as "changing soup without medication."
The pressure at the congressional level is not small either. At present, the Liberal Democratic Party does not have an absolute majority in Congress, and many important bills need cooperation with opposition parties to be passed.
Whether the high market’s tough style will get sufficient support in Congress is unknown.
How long can the aura of "the first female prime minister" last
The identity of the "first female prime minister" may bring a certain support rate in the short term.
How long this ring can last depends on whether she can make real results.
Japanese voters do not have much patience with the prime minister. If the economy does not improve, people's livelihood issues are not improved, and there are frequent setbacks in diplomacy, a decline in support rates is inevitable.
Gao Shi's tough stance during the election campaign is likely to become her burden in reality.
After Gao was elected, he told congressmen: "Now I am glad to say, rather than to say, the real difficulties have just begun.
She also said that she would abandon the "balance between work and life", want to "work, work, work again".
This statement sounds very determined, and if it can really solve the problem, it must also be seen the effect of implementation.
Summary
When elected, Japanese politics will further develop in the direction of conservation and right-wing.
She has climbed to the top of power with faction deals and tough positions, but economic difficulties, diplomatic pressure, divisions within the party, congressional constraints, all of which could become a stumbling block on her way to power.
On October 4, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that he hoped that Japan would abide by the principles and consensus of the four political documents between China and Japan, and abide by history,
We have made political commitments on major issues such as Taiwan Province and pursued a positive and rational China policy.
Peace and stability in the region need to beined jointly by all parties, and the choice of the new Japanese government will directly affect the direction of the situation in the region.