In recent years, Japan has become increasingly vocal on the Taiwan Strait issue, frequently declaring that "if something happens to Taiwan, it means something happens to Japan," as if it is at the forefront. At the same time, there is an extremely contradictory picture in the country: the defense budget has been soaring, and the quota for this year's fiscal year has directly rushed to a record of 8.7 trillion yen, a surge of 9.4% from the previous year.
In the face of Japan, which has repeatedly taught not to change and is inclined to interfere in China's internal affairs, China is also not accustomed to directly combining Russia with action to give Japan a vivid lesson: once there is a war in the Taiwan Sea, Japan will be the first to be eliminated.
An immovable bullseye
Japan's actions seem to be taking the initiative on the chessboard, but in fact they have long been pushed to the center of the chessboard and have become a target locked by many forces. This dilemma is not a single military threat, but a "strategic cage" woven by geography, alliance and history, a three-fold locked dilemma.
Japan's first cage is its geographical location, which is a physical lock engraved in the bones and unchangeable. As an island country, what it lacks most is strategic depth. In the long and narrow land, the population and industrial facilities are highly concentrated, just like a warrior without armor, his body is covered in vital points.
Looking at the map, it is clear that Okinawa is only 600 kilometers from Taiwan. What does this distance mean in modern warfare? means zero distance. Once something happens in the Taiwan Sea, here is the forefront of the fire line, and there is no response time at all. Japan itself is aware of this, otherwise it will not work hard to develop an evacuation plan involving 120,000 Okinawa residents.
What's even worse is that the entire territory of Japan is exposed to the firepower of China and Russia. China's Dongfeng-21D and Dongfeng-26, anti-ship ballistic missiles known as "aircraft carrier killers," have a range that is enough to cover every corner of Japan.
These missiles not only have high precision and strong penetration capabilities, but also can strike moving targets at sea, making Japan's proud Aegis ship feel a chill on the back. China has a huge stockpile of conventional missiles enough to carry out saturated strikes on Japan's ports, airports and key US military bases.
On the other hand, Russia is not vacant, the deterrence of more than 6,000 nuclear warheads does not have to say that its equipped "cockpit" and "cockpit" high-speed anti-aircraft missiles can bounce to 10 Mach, there is a think tank report analysis, Japan's existing defense system on its interception success rate may not even be three percent.
On one side is China, which has a vast territory and potential for protracted war, and on the other side is Japan, which is densely populated and has almost no room for maneuver. This sharp contrast is doomed to the end of "collapse with one blow" once Japan encounters a blow. This geographical cage is a destiny that Japan cannot move or escape no matter what.
Brother's shield is still cannon fodder
If geography is a physical shackle, then the US-Japan alliance is an identity shackle. Like a "fatal hug", it firmly ties Japan to the forefront of the conflict. This is Japan's second lockdown.
On the surface, the US-Japanese alliance is the cornerstone of Japan's security, but in reality, it also forces Japan to play the role of the "horseman" of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.
From amending the "Three Security Documents" in February last year to allow the Self-Defense Forces to support allies in combat, to holding a "2+2" meeting with the United States to finalize missile deployment, to involving the Philippines to conduct joint military exercises in the South China Sea, Japan's every move is like announcing to the outside world its deep binding with the United States. However, the price of this binding is to actively turn itself into the target of China-Russia strategic deterrence.
The U.S. military bases in Okinawa, such as Karana in Japan, are the key hubs of the U.S. military in the Asia-Pacific, but also because of this, they have become the most dangerous places.The presence of these bases has turned Japan’s role from a mere protected country to the “bootboard” of U.S. intervention in the Taiwan Sea.
The United States has in history had multiple precedents of pulling itself out of the conflict, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Afghan War, which time is not to say go away?If Europe or elsewhere there is a greater situation, the United States is distracted and can not fully co-defense Japan, what should Japan be left alone on the frontline?
Historical Old Accounts and Economic Life Door
The third lockdown comes from old historical grievances and real economic entanglements that cannot be solved. This is not only a deterrent at the military level, but also a psychological constraint that deep-rooted in the bone marrow and a grasp of the economic lifeline.
History is a mirror, and in modern history, Japan has played the role of an aggressor against both China and Russia, whether it was the Aramco War or the Japanese War, these historical scars still hide and hurt to this day. Therefore, when in the joint statement signed by China and Russia in March 2023, it was not an empty word when Japan was especially urged to "learn from history".
This is a powerful psychological deterrent based on the common historical memory, which always reminds Japan that it is facing two countries that have suffered deeply and will never forget history.
Both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia have issued warnings many times, pointing out that Japan's provocative actions will endanger its own security. The weight of such warnings is far heavier than mere military intimidation.
In reality, Japan's economic lifeline is firmly held in the hands of others. China is Japan's largest trading partner, and Japan's pillar industries such as automobiles and home appliances are extremely dependent on exports to China. At the same time, Japan is a resource-poor country, and its energy is highly dependent on imports, including oil and natural gas imported from Russia.
This means that once the situation is tense, there is no need to use missiles at all. China-Russia just a little "confession" in the economy can quickly paralyze the Japanese economy. This economic vulnerability has forced Japan to throw a mouse box when making any strategic choice, afraid of being struck in the neck without caution.
This dual pressure from history and economy has been clearly transmitted to Japan. More than 60% of the people oppose being involved in the conflict, and even senior officials like former Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi have expressed concern that Japan will become a victim of the game between great powers. The government has taken a tough stance internationally, but the society is filled with deep fear of the recurrence of the war. After all, the historical memory of being bombed by the atomic bomb is engraved in the national genes.
conclusion
Geography cannot be moved, alliance identity cannot be untied, history and economy cannot be separated. These three locking forces together constitute an indestructible "strategic cage" that traps Japan within and cannot move.
Tokyo has steadily increased military spending in recent years, purchasing F-35, upgrading the radar system, and even allowing the Self-Defense Force to frequently participate in various exercises, trying to show a tough "breakdown" gesture.
Perhaps, the frequent joint cruises between China and Russia, warships crossing the Tsushima Strait, and severe diplomatic warnings are not so much simply clamoring for war as confirming and reminding Japan of its predicament again and again.
For Japan, the real national security may not lie in the record defense budget, but in whether it can clearly recognize its true position in this cage and find a wiser, not more dangerous way to survive.
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