Early in the morning of October 4, the Russian tanker "Bolakai", intercepted by the French navy, was released. In the past few days, France also declared it was a "major victory against the shadow fleet", and now the wind turns, the British media "Observers" directly mocked, saying that the operation was a pure show, not even the drone flight incident. A more ambitious phrase is that France can stop anyone, that is, it does not dare to really stop Russian petrol ships.
The boat storm, France itself hit.
On the night of 2 October, the French Navy embarked on a patrol vessel in the Atlantic Ocean to force a vessel with vague registered information to intercept the vessel, called the "Boracay", which is referred to by Western media as part of the Russian "Shadow Fleet". The French official said it was a "successful international law enforcement operation" aimed at determining whether there were violations of sanctions and assistance to Russian crude oil exports.
The background at the time was not simple. Europe has just experienced a series of drone intrusions into airports. French intelligence agencies suspected that "there is a Russian shadow behind it" and urgently expanded the scope of maritime patrols. The "Bolakai" was locked by the radar, its flag showed an abnormality, and it refused to inform the route immediately. It was suspected to be a Russian oil tanker. The navy directly boarded the ship and searched it, and even the captain and co-pilot were taken away.
For a time, the French media reported overwhelmingly that this was "a breakthrough to curb Russia's evasion of sanctions." Even President Macron took advantage of the situation to emphasize that "France will not tolerate any loopholes in sanctions". The French political arena cheered, as if the navy had caught a priceless "energy ghost". But a few days later, the plot turned sharply. The investigation results show that the identity of the so-called "shadow fleet" is doubtful, and the crude oil on board is indeed shipped to India. There is no evidence to prove that the goods belong to the Russian sanctions list.
The British magazine "The Observer" first laughed: "France stopped a legally-transported tanker, and also appeared to be breached by international smuggling." the article noted that the ship has nothing to do with the previous drone crash incident, the French intelligence agency forced attachment is purely "brain supplement". Ironically, France deliberately remained vague at the time of the inspection, neither announcing the seizure nor daring to release, delaying the ship for three days, until the 4th of October.
Public opinion in France began to split. Some lawmakers accused the military of "misjudgment" and wasting public resources. However, the Navy argued that "the procedure was legal." This embarrassing interception operation became a classic case of departments blaming each other. Military commentators described the incident as a "classic muscle show to cramps." France wants to show toughness, but it hits the wall of reality.
The real problem is that France does not have a real "legal basis" to intercept such tankers. The sanctions target Russian companies and Russian oil exports, not all third-party ships carrying crude oil. Without accurate evidence, any interception could constitute “interference in international shipping”.
On the day of the departure, the French diplomatic spokesman was gentle and surprisingly gentle, saying only that "the ship was verified and there was no risk." A short phrase covered the noise of the previous days. Navy officials later confessed in private that the interception was "intelligence misleading".
France originally planned to continue the trial of the China captain who was taken away, but its position quickly softened after the ship was released. Lawyers revealed that France may postpone the trial.This move makes the outside world wonder whether the whole operation is just a political performance. France wanted to establish its prestige, but it was slapped in the face by reality.
British media exposes European mask
The day after the tanker was released, The Spectator made a severe run on France in its editorial. The British magazine, known for its poisonous tongue, wrote: "France wanted to play a hero, but became a farce director." Commentary bluntly speaking, France's interception action is a gimmick, which is essentially a show of muscles externally and a show of achievements internally.The British said sarcastically: "Even the real Russian oil tanker dared not move, but they chose the safest target."
The British have always been good at digging up adversaries. the commentary also specifically mocked the French navy: “They should probably first learn to distinguish coordinates and then catch the real goal.” Even a columnist in the Financial Times suggested that France's move was mainly due to domestic political needs-using international security to divert economic issues.
More embarrassingly, France did not publicly apologize after the shiping. The British media described it as “diplomacy with a hard mouth”. The British government did not officially comment, but the media generally believed that “France helped the Russians.”
This incident also exposed contradictions within Europe. France wanted to show its determination to impose sanctions, but Britain openly ridiculed it; Germany remained silent and continued to buy gas. Energy policy within the EU is increasingly like a duet. Unity in words, but each calculates its own accounts behind the scenes.
For the outside world, the Huron shuttle is a signal that Europe has long been exhausted in the sanctions system. Legislative constraints, economic pressure, energy demand are intertwined, and any "hard clash" move is inevitably misleading. The British media ironically ironizes even more: "Europe cannot stop Russian oil transportation, because Europe itself cannot separate it."
The French blockade for three days and the departure for a second is the shortcut of the European energy crisis.Blockade is said in the mouth, but action is unavoidable.The English media has a joke that strikes the embarrassing reality of the entire continent.
Russia plays a “maritime underground economy”
The incident of the tanker "Bolakai" is not an isolated case. In fact, the most unbeatable thing in Europe over the years is not the Russian officials' export vessel, but a whole gray transportation system called the "Shadow Fleet". Oil has gone, people cannot find it, the route floats, documents are blurred, and even the name of the ship can be changed at any time. This is not smuggling, but a semi-open "outside of the economic chain of sanctions".
What is the “shadow fleet”? in simple terms, it is a group of oil tankers that Russia has specifically established or relied on to circumvent the Western energy ban, with no public affiliation, most of which are registered in countries such as Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands, with the flag of an unknown company, but specifically on Russian oil routes.
Starting from 2023, foreign media have discovered that many oil tankers appearing in ports in Singapore, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, and India have older ships, old equipment, and AIS signals often "disappear", but they can always accurately load Russian oil or petroleum products. Each loading is like a spy war drama, and the power scheduling system is difficult to track completely.
Like "Bolakai", it is usually the kind of operator who "docks in port without saying hello and leaves without leaving a trace". If the European navy wants to stop it, it can't stop it-first, the law is difficult to define. If you say it is illegally transported, it will say "it didn't take your forbidden route" as soon as it takes out the documents; Second, the cost of verification is high. If you want to deduct it, you will have to spend several days figuring out the owner, source of goods, flag and loading port, and it may even lead to diplomatic issues.
Furthermore, there is sometimes a “ship-to-ship” shipping between these tankers, with one Russian tanker transporting oil to the middle of the Mediterranean and another carrying a foreign flag. The first ship turned around, the second ship continued to deliver goods, and at the end of the journey, it transformed into a "mixed oil". No matter how detailed the investigation is, it is impossible to find out which batch of goods came from Russia.
It is through this operation that Russia stillins large amounts of energy exports in the face of the EU-US embargo.Especially in the Asian market, India and China are major buyers, and some countries in the Middle East also eat Russian oil.As long as the destination port is not in the EU or the G7, the tankers are basically free.
Europe wants to stop it, but there is no way to control it globally. You can keep an eye on your own port, but how to manage the high seas? How can the unloading place in a third country intervene? In addition, the legal definition is vague-it only says that you cannot buy Russian oil, but does not say that you cannot transport Russian oil, nor does it prohibit non-EU countries from doing business with Russia. Europe's "iron fist of law" becomes "self-speaking" when it reaches the sea.
Another reason behind the formation of the shadow fleet is the skyrocketing freight rates. In the era of embargo, whoever can transport oil safely will make more money. An oil tanker that completes a Russian oil transportation within a month will make profits several times higher than normal routes. This has attracted a large number of private transportation capacity to join-no matter what kind of black ship or second-hand broken ship you are, as long as it can start and run, Rosneft will still board the ship.
This created a wonderful phenomenon: on the one hand, Europe shouted “block Russia’s energy” every day, and on the other hand, the port radar swept out new ships every day.
After the oil tanker farce, Europe wants to blockade Russian oil? It's not that simple.
After the tanker "Boracay" was released, France could not hang on the face. The media did not buy bills, nor did it have to be said diplomatically. Worse, this scene also gave Europe another reminder: sanctions are not based on will, but on enforcement.
If Europe really wants to completely block Russia's energy exports, it must come up with practical measures: either increase monitoring of maritime transportation capacity, or tighten sanctions on transit by third countries, but each move means a high price.
For example, shipping regulation, European ports currently although have radar and AIS tracking systems, but in the face of tanker vessels that deliberately shut down the signal and use "black list" ships, technically can not do the full coverage. In addition, international shipping lanes such as the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and Suez are all under the jurisdiction of many countries, and France does not block them just as they say.
To sanction third countries for receiving Russian energy is to start a global economic tug-of-war. Countries such as India, United Arab Emirates, and Malaysia have long bought Russian oil through the "mixed oil and passed on" method. If we really attack these countries, the European market will cut off its own channels for stability.
And attacking the Shadow Fleet? Theoretically, blacklists, insurance restrictions, and port closures can be carried out, but shipowners have long bypassed large company insurance and used private or domestic insurance companies to cover the bottom. If we can't simply ship goods in African and Asian ports, Europe won't even have a chance to speak.
The most central question is: Europe itself is also buying. when you don’t find the source, you can only “trust the supplier”. and the supplier? holding India, Turkey’s transfer oil and saying “it’s not Russian oil,” you can never test the ingredients of every barrel of oil, right?
France’s move, in fact, is about telling the world: “We are seriously sanctioning.” but after the show, the audience sees the gap: Do you dare to catch the shadow fleet? do you really want to blame the global chain behind Russian oil? do you dare to get your own oil price to rise by another 30%?
The ridicule of the British media did not come out of thin air. When British warships really stopped an Iranian oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, it was all out. But France launched a high-profile operation this time, but it quietly released the person two days later without even holding a press conference. Isn't it like it's smacking?
In fact, the French military doesn't want to be tough. They know that the seizure of Russian oil tankers means diplomatic risks. Once Russia retaliates, French overseas assets, energy imports and North African natural gas routes may all suffer. Therefore, this "interception show" was restrained-raising the red flag, sounding the flute, checking it symbolically, and finishing it.
Now that the Bolakay is gone, the story seems to be over, but it is just beginning. The shadow fleet will not stop, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in European sanctions. If France wants to "block oil and establish its power" again, I'm afraid it will have to ask its own people first-have we figured out the price?