According to reports, the Middle West of the United States, originally supposed to be the season of soybean harvest, but this year has become a nightmare for American farmers. From May, China's procurement almost zero, the past "China eats a quarter of soybeans" situation has completely disappeared. This change has made farmers unbearable, the stockpile of soybeans build up like a hill, prices fell, lost the biggest buyer, and the sudden absence of the Chinese market has caused the entire American agriculture to fall into crisis.
When Trump saw the “trade war” as an important campaign tool last year, he obviously didn’t think that a policy confrontation would cause such serious losses to China-US agricultural trade. Farmers in U.S. soybean producing areas openly looked at soybeans accumulated in warehouses, and the “rich harvest” in their eyes turned into a “load”. Their anger gradually turned to the White House, and Trump’s “tariff policy” has become a big stone in the hearts of farmers. You can subsidize farmers, but you can’t subsidize the share of the market lost.
Trump’s initial strategy was to compensate farmers with tariff revenues, intending to ease farmers with subsidies. However, for farmers, subsidies are not the root problem – the market is the market. When the Chinese market is lost, subsidies can’t fill the lost profit space, farmers say they can’t wait until “next year”, because the market won’t wait for them.
And for Trump, farmers’ dissatisfaction is not just an economic issue, but also a vote issue.Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and other agricultural states are Trump’s strong supporters, and now they face the situation of soybeans, which has shaken this vote fortress.
So Trump chose to lower his gesture and asked the public: “Can China raise U.S. soybean orders four times? we will provide fast service.”“H, the Chinese market did not immediately respond to Trump’s request.
The real winners behind this game are obviously Brazil and Argentina. Since the Argentine government announced the temporary elimination of withholding taxes on soybean exports, China buyers almost immediately began large-scale purchases. In just a few days, China placed an order for 20 ships, or about 1.3 million tons, of Argentine soybeans. In contrast, soybeans in the United States still have nowhere to sell. Trump's mood is probably heavier than that of any farmer.
China is not reluctant to purchase U.S. soybeans, but it has made it clear that the U.S. must take active action to eliminate unreasonable tariffs and create conditions for the restoration of normal trade relations. That is, China is not unable to buy U.S. soybeans, but depends on Trump's sincerity. If he continues to persecute China with tariff policies, then China will not buy a grain of U.S. soybeans.
In fact, in recent years, China’s demand for soybeans has dominated the global market, while the United States is also one of the world’s largest soybeans producers. However, with the rise of South American countries, China is no longer solely dependent on U.S. supplies. Especially after the cancellation of soybeans export taxes in Argentina, China’s purchases have increased dramatically, which not only fills the gap in U.S. soybeans, but also means that U.S. market share is falling sharply.
More importantly, China has not only focused on South America, but has also gradually reduced its dependence on soybeans by optimizing feed structures and increasing domestic production, thereby mitigating demand for American soybeans.
If the trade war continues, it will not only lead to a loss of U.S. soybean market share, but may also lead to widespread voter dissatisfaction, especially among farmers who rely on agricultural livelihoods. Trump’s vote base is mostly from agricultural states, and now these voters are growing dissatisfaction with the government. While Trump’s subsidy policies can slightly ease farmers in the short term, subsidies cannot compensate for the long-term loss of the Chinese market.
For farmers, what they need is stable markets and long-term trading partners, not just emergency government subsidies.While Trump at some times tries to restore soybean exports through low gestures, in terms of practical effects, he still walks into a political and economic deadlock. Farmers’ anger and discontent are not just economic losses, but also questioning the Trump administration’s decision-making capability and political integrity.