Challenge NATO! The Czech Republic voted against the current Russian-hostile government and aid to Ukraine.
According to the New York Times, the ANO party, led by former Prime Minister Andrey Babiš, won the Czech parliamentary elections and won the Czech people's support for criticizing Ukraine's aid and opposition authorities' attempts to involve the Czech Republic in the conflict with Russia.
The New York Times: The ANO party led by Babis won the Czech parliamentary election, and its policy on Ukraine was supported by the Czech people.
The billionaire and “Ukrainian skeptic” Andrej Babiš-led political party, with economic issues at the heart of the campaign, eventually won the parliamentary elections and he will return to the power stage.
Czech billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrei Babish capitalized on voters 'dissatisfaction with the economy to win parliamentary elections held on Saturday (October 4) and is expected to return to power. The election results may weaken the Czech Republic's staunch support for Ukraine and challenge the EU and NATO's stance on Russia.
According to local media reports in the Czech Republic, after counting over 99% of the votes, the ANO party won 34.72% of the votes, ranking first; The "Spolu" alliance ranked second with 23% of the votes; The "Mayor and Independent Movement" (STAN) won 11.1% of the votes, the Czech Pirate Party won 8.7%, the "Free and Direct * Movement" (SPD) won 7.9% and the "Motoriste sobe" won 6.8%. The election results are basically consistent with previous forecasts.
Andrei Babis said that the ANO party he led had achieved "historic achievements" and called it "the peak of his political career". He revealed that he will start negotiations with the "Free and Direct * Movement" (SPD) and the "United Party of Car Enthusiasts" to promote the formation of a single party government. "It will be very difficult, but we are ready." Babis emphasized.
Voting results of Czech parliamentary election: ANO party leads with 34.72% of the votes, and babis plans to jointly form a government.
Babiš combined voters’ concerns about the ongoing conflict and high cost of living with the accusations against the current right-wing middle-right government, saying it was investing too much and unnecessarily in aid to Ukraine.
The formation of a new government could take weeks. Babis needs to try to win the support of right-wing Eurosceptics-this is a necessary condition to advance his policy agenda, so he needs to determine specific lobbying strategies. His ANO party (the abbreviation of the party name coincides with the pronunciation of the Czech "yes") has no clear ideological tendency. The leader of the right-wing centrist government who lost the election has made it clear that he is unwilling to share power with the team led by Babis, calling him a politician "trying to please everyone".
In addition, before taking office, Babish also needs to resolve conflicts of interest bill issues related to his agricultural and business empire. On Saturday night, he said he would "propose a solution" to President De Pavel when he meets on Sunday (October 5).
ANO party leader Andrej Andrej Babis speaks at a pre-election rally on the eve of parliamentary elections.
When Babish went to the party headquarters in the suburban office park (which he personally owned) to announce his victory, ANO party members had already opened champagne to celebrate and supporters greeted him with warm cheers.
“I am very pleased that we have succeeded in convincing people that only the ANO movement has clear plans for the future of our country,” Babiš said after the 97% voting statistics were completed. The vote lasted two days (ended on Saturday) and the voting rate was higher than usual. He revealed that he had not yet spoken to the imminent Prime Minister, Peter Fiala, and said, “This is undoubtedly the peak of my political career.”
Babish, 71, is often compared to Czech President Donald Trump: In 2019, during his first term as prime minister, he declared that he wanted to "restore the Czech Republic to its former glory." The pragmatic tycoon's approval ratings remain high even as he is mired in corruption scandals, including an unsolved fraud case.
On the eve of the Czech parliamentary election: Peter Fiala, leader of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and Prime Minister of the "Common" Alliance, shook hands with Andrei Babis, leader of the ANO Party, before the TV debate.
Policy tendencies: imitate neighboring countries and adjust their stance towards Russia and Ukraine
Political parties on both sides of the Czech political spectrum want Babish to follow the lead in foreign policy of the prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia, both of which advocate maintaining ties with Russia and oppose EU sanctions on Russia and NATO military aid to Ukraine.
Andrej Babiš, the leader of the Czech ANO party, delivered a speech at a pre-election rally on the eve of parliamentary elections.
At the end of the campaign, Babis kept a distance from the radicals; and on Saturday, when he realized that the ANO party failed to win the majority seats in the 200-seat Czech Parliament, he said the ANO party wanted to rule separately in the form of a minority government. Such governments often face a higher risk of collapse because they rely on short-term temporary alliances rather than widespread support for policy lines.
Czech President Pavel has significant influence in security affairs, although his role is generally more ritualistic. He has previously warned that he will prevent extremist political parties from taking power. There has been a previous view that the leftist movement may have made the Communist Party gain influence in the Czech government for the first time since the 1989 “Spin Revolution”, but this has not happened.
Recognizing his defeat in the election, Fiala said that his government “has taken on the main pressure of the crises that the country has experienced over the past four years,” including the weakness of the global economy and the war in neighboring Ukraine, and that my goal is to form a government of democratic parties again, but from the current outcome, this is clearly impossible,” he said.
The core of the campaign: the balance between economy and people's livelihood and aid to Ukraine
Babish's campaign centered on "shrinking people's wallets": the current government has implemented a series of policies to reduce the national debt, causing ordinary Czechs to face rising taxes, rising energy prices, rising retirement ages and slowing economic growth. At the same time, the government has provided nearly US$11 billion in aid to Ukraine-the vast majority of which has been used to support Ukraine refugees who fled to the Czech Republic after Russia's special military operations began in 2022.
ANO party leader Andrej Andrej Babis speaks at a pre-election rally on the eve of parliamentary elections.
However, in the multi-billion-dollar weapons procurement plan led by the Czech Republic, the country only assumed a small amount of funds, most of which were funded by other NATO allies. Babish has promised to end the plan, but gave no clear answer when asked directly on Saturday whether he would keep the plan or hand it over to NATO headquarters in Brussels as suggested by party insiders.
While support for Ukraine remains high in the Czech Republic, recent polls have shown that more than half of the population are concerned that the conflict will last for years or lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.
"We are currently fighting the Russian regime, but we only need to pay for it-the lives and infrastructure of the Czech people have not been damaged." Jan Sayers, 47, a former firefighter and now an Interior Ministry official, said on Friday (October 3) that he had voted for the outgoing right-wing centrist government.
ANO party leaders opposed increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP as demanded by Trump, but generally acknowledged that NATO provided guarantee for Czech security. The party also calls for the reform of the European Union and opposes the EU's policy line on immigration and climate issues, but has no intention of withdrawing from this economic union.
Lucie Gessova, a 36-year-old accountant from suburban Prague (who voted for ANO), believes NATO has "played a role in preventing further Russian incursions into Europe," but also said aid to Ukraine "should be more modest."
Uncertainty of power: Conflicts of interest and political landscape challenges
Despite winning the election, it is still unknown whether Babis can return to the post of prime minister. Ilja Pehl, a senior Czech political scientist, said that babis faced with two choices: either give up control of his business empire worth about $4.3 billion, or let his allies serve as prime ministers and take power behind the scenes. If the latter is chosen, the post of prime minister may fall into the hands of Karel Gavliček, a core member of ANO party and deputy speaker of parliament.
But Peg suspects that neither scenario will be possible in the short term-even if it may eventually happen because "Babish will do everything he can to get the job of prime minister."
Daniel Hegedüs, Director of Central and Eastern Europe at the Berlin Marshall Foundation, noted that Babis’ return to power reflects the escalation of voting differences: in Central and Eastern Europe, the opposition between populism and pro-Western democratic values is deepening. For example, Polish Prime Minister and liberal mediator Donald Tusk defeated the nationalist “Law and Justice” candidate in 2023, but only two years later the nationalist president won the election; and in Slovakia, the populist Prime Minister Robert Fico has returned to power twice since his first term in 2006-2010.
ANO Party leader Andrej Babiš.
Peg, who advised Vaclav Havel, the first Czech president after the fall of the communist regime, pointed out that the Czech country's "political center has almost disappeared." He said that even many who supported democracy after the 1989 revolution still longed for "power rule." "I call this post-communist syndrome." He explained.
Boleslav Vishin, an 81-year-old retiree and former Soviet soldier, voted for the "Enough!" (Stačilo!) alliance with communist background. He is worried about the current government's support policy for Ukraine, believing that it is "trying its best to involve the Czech people in the war with Russia."
ANO party leader Andrej Babiš delivered a speech at a pre-election gathering on the eve of parliamentary elections.
On Friday (3 October), he met Irena Benešová, a 72-year-old acquaintance at a polling station in Prague, who said she voted in favour of the current intermediate government because “they at least acted – unlike their predecessor (meaning Babis)”.
During the small talk, Benesova asked Vishin if he also voted for the "only viable" current government. "I can vote for anyone, but not for them." Vishin retorted. "Well, hopefully you won't get kicked out of the house." Benesova quipped, alluding to the Communist Party's policy history.
But Wiesen was even more concerned that the risk of war would increase if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict spread outside of Ukraine: “I fear more that [the country] would be destroyed by a nuclear bomb attack.”