In Japanese politics, a "historical moment" has just occurred.
But behind this victory of "breaking through the glass ceiling" lurks an atmosphere that makes the entire East Asia nervous.
Takashi Saami, an iron-fisted strongwoman known as the "staunchest heir to Abenism", was successfully elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party-meaning that she is very likely to become Japan's first female prime minister.
However, her appearance does not mean that Japan has entered a “new era of diversity and moderation”, but rather that it is moving towards a new era of diversity and moderation. An era of more aggression and uncertainty。
The city celebrates election victory.
First, women “break the ceiling”, but the right-wing “break the bottom line”
In Japan, the victory of the high market was considered a milestone in women's political history.
But at the same time, her political stance has made many neighboring countries feel uneasy.
She has visited the Yasukuni Shrine many times, publicly questioned some historical facts about historical issues, and also advocated that Japan should "have the ability to attack enemy bases."
In her speech, she repeatedly stressed that "Japan should become a country that can independently launch defense operations" and pushed to increase defense expenditure to more than 2% of GDP.
To put it bluntly, what she has to do is not to "reform Japan", but to "reshape Japan's post-war identity".
This means Japan’s political center is shifting from “economic reconstruction” to “security-led” and from “peace-state” to “paramilitary state.”
Takaichi Sanae Visits Yasukuni Shrine
2. The resurgence of "Abe's legacy": the restoration of factional politics
The success of the GCM was not an isolated event, but a result of the redistribution of power within the self-government party.
Behind her is the collective return of Abe's faction.
The reform line, the view of national security, and the diplomatic strategy for China, which Abe had vigorously pursued before his life, have all been continued in the high market.
She is regarded as Abe’s “political testament executor” – continuing to promote the dream of “nationalization of the ordinary.”
It is worth noting that her victory was not easy.
In the second round of the vote, she defeated the moderate representative, Xiao Xuan, with a weak advantage, which revealed the deep divide in Japanese politics:
On the one hand, there are conservatives who want Japan to “return to a normal country,” and on the other hand, there are reformists who are concerned about the right-wing tendency to exaggerate.
And in the outside world, this change of power is not only a breakthrough in the sense of gender, but even more. Reorganization of ideology。
3. The New Decade of East Asia: Tension, Anxiety and Uncertainty
For China, South Korea, and even for East Asia as a whole, the rise of the high market will bring a series of chain reactions.
Her view of history and diplomatic stance are destined to make Japan-South Korea relations tense again.
In China-Japan relations, she has repeatedly made "sensitive remarks" on the Taiwan issue, and may play a more active role in the US "Indo-Pacific strategy" in the future.
This means that Japan could become a leading U.S. position in East Asia to “balance China.”
This cutting-edge role will also put Japan in a dangerous balance: it must cooperate with U.S. strategy and face the strong defensive mentality of neighboring countries.
Japanese Defense Ministry
In a word, the next decade in East Asia will probably be the decade in which the power will be re-washed and the gun will be the easiest.
4. Japan's choice between toughness and reality
The political style of the high market is a typical "symbolic hardness".
She is good at winning votes with hard words, but has to face deep problems in reality, such as economic difficulties, minority and social stagnation.
Can Japan afford the price of "rearming"?
Can she find a balance between ideology and economy and people's livelihood?
This will determine whether she will become a “Japanese iron maiden” or “another short-lived prime minister.”
From a larger perspective, Takaichi's coming to power is not just Japan's choice, but a mirror image of the whole East Asia.
It reveals a common question: When politics shift to “security priority,” are we sacrificing real security?
"She broke the glass ceiling of Japanese politics, but she may rebuild the post-war Iron Curtain."
In the end, everyone believes that Japan's return to the "tough line" is it inevitable of the times or is it a retrogression of conservative forces? Everyone is welcome to discuss in the comment area!