Source | Earth Knowledge Bureau
Text | A Monkey
“Development is the best contraception.”
A woman in childbearing age will have an average of 2.1 children in order to maintain the balance between generations, but the 2020 Seven Points data show that this figure in our country is 1.3 in 2022. my countryNegative Population GrowthAnd this trend. difficult to reverse.。
The United Nations World Population Outlook for 2024 shows that China's negative population growth will rise and remain in the middle of this century. More than 10 million a year.That’s less than one year in Sweden.
〓 The United Nations "World Population Outlook 2024" plan predicts China's population changes
Japan and South Korea entered negative population growth earlier than us, and even more Uncontrolled recessionTypically, South Korea is the lowest population fertility rate in the world. The think tank study found that even in the most optimistic circumstances, a hundred years from now, the population of South Korea will be less than one-third.
〓 According to the United Nations,East Asia's total fertility rate will be among the lowest in the world until the next century
ButEurope solved this problemAs the world’s earliest industrialized region, Europe’s fertility rate began to decline in the 19th century, but Europe’s total population did so in the late 20th century. gradually stabilized or even recovered.。
According to the European Commission, the population of Europe has increased four years in a row in 2025 following the outbreak.Now it has exceeded.4.500 million。
The magic of this is – immigrants.
Yes in 2023 Nearly 6 million people have moved to EU countriesMost of them come from non-EU countries, with Germany and Spain absorbing more than 40%. According to the European Bureau of Statistics, the arrival of immigrants has become The only way to compensate for the natural decline in Europe’s populationThe factor .
〓 Western and Northern European populations with large-scale immigration willSlow growth remains stable
What can we rely on to delay population inertia?
What factors affect the increase or decrease of population?
What ordinary people can intuitively feel is buying a house, betrothal gifts, raising a baby, maternity subsidies, and social mediaAnd other factors. These factors do affect your own perception of fertility. People also tend to instinctively think that this is the key factor affecting the increase or decrease of population.
〓 The decline in population is only the result of the influence of a number of factors (Fig.
From the individual microscopic level, it is true, but from the macroscopic group, there is an invisible hand behind it that drives population growth, called the"Population inertia"。
To the image, this is equivalent to a small car speeding up on a slope.(Decrease in fertility)It won’t slip immediately.(Population decline)Instead, it will move a distance under the influence of convenience.(Population inertia growth), gradually stopped, and finally slipped down.
Once again, stepping down the door.(Fertility rebounds), the car will not accelerate immediately(Population growth)But will continue to slide down a certain distance under the action of inertia(Reduced population rate of population), this Demographic Retarded ChangeThe process is called "population inertia change".
But for European countries, the population fertility rate is also declining, and the time for population fertility growth is significantly longer.DelayedThe European population reached its peak.
Moreover, these immigrants are often the main force of fertility, especiallyMuslim immigrantsTheir arrival not only increased the population base, but also increased the level of fertility.Extended time of population growth。In other words, even if Europe suddenly shifts to low fertility, population decline will not quickly converge to East Asian levels.
〓 With fertility declining, Asia's population growth will turn to decline faster than Europe's and the decline will be faster.
The theory of demographic inertia suggests that once a demographic trend is formed,difficult to reverse.Relying on population policies to improve the fertility level of one's own population often does not have immediate results.
Therefore, the most direct and effective way to slow down the negative population growth is immigration. Although Europe is often mocked to rely on immigration to survive, it has to be acknowledged,A balance is achieved through immigration.
〓 Immigrants from Germany (Photo: Yitu.com)
Of course, introducing immigrants is not as simple as directly pulling people in. It is a technical job.
Old drivers introduced to immigrants
The problem of minority and aging is a severe demographic problem facing the three countries of China and Japan, and at the moment there is not a complete set of mature solutions. Longer-term exploration experienceAn experienced old driver.
〓 In 2023, Japan's ageing rate will reach 29.1% to be the highest in the world (Figure 1).
First of all, it has long been established in European countriesPopulation Research and Statistics Institutions。 French National Institute of Demographic Research（INED）Federal Institute of Population in Germany（BiB）The Max Planck Institute for Population Studies（MPIDR）And other institutions, are committed to studying population issues, monitoring population trends, andScientific advice to the government。
With the support of institutional research, countries have a variety of population policies. In addition to reducing the cost of raising children and stabilizing the fertility level through a series of social support policies, the open immigration policy has becomeCompensating Negative Population GrowthThe key factors.
As an old colonial country, both British and French were large-scale.Admission of immigrants from former colonies。 In the 1970s, in order to alleviate the labor shortage problem, Germany onceMassive introduction of “workers”It attracted a large number of Turks to work in Germany.
〓 The exclusive German word “Gastarbeiter” refers to these “guest workers” (Figure 1).
Initially, these guest workers were envisioned as short-term rotations and would return to their country of origin after working for a period of time. However, with economic development and policy adjustments, residence restrictions were lifted, resulting in a large number of guest workers choosing to stay in Germany and applying for family reunification.Permanent immigrant communities。
Foreign nationals in Germany,The TurkishThe number has been far ahead. Until the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in recent years, Germany absorbed a large number ofUkrainian refugeesOnly then did Turkey's advantages shrink.
The growth of the Ukrainians also indicates the fact that in addition to the planned introduction of labor,Absorbing refugeesIt is also an important means for Europe to supplement its labor force. The influx of many large-scale refugees after World War II gave it a unique response model.
Among them, the most striking one is the European refugee crisis caused by the war in the Middle East in 2015. Millions of refugees from Syria, Afghanistan and other countries poured into Europe. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022, European countries registeredMore than 6 million Ukrainian refugees。
〓 Two refugee flows in 2015 and 2022
How long will the population remain stable?
Although from a demographic perspective, attracting immigrants and refugees can solve the problem of European population in the short term, what really needs to be focused on and solved is the follow-up.Deep Demographic Structure, especiallyEthnic Structure and Social InclusionQuestion.
Unlike the United States, an immigrant country, the native culture and ethnic groups in Europe are more deeply rooted,A large influx of foreign people will cause more social and cultural conflicts and public security problemsThemeMoreover, higher fertility rates among immigrant populations also cause concern and fear among some Europeans.
Facing these problems, the solution isPromote the assimilation and integration of immigrants.
German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees（BAMF）French Immigration and Integration Office（OFII）Large investments in immigration integrationBalanced integration of immigrants and public opinion。
As far as the results are concerned, look at the results of recent European elections.
The downward environment of the economy obviously increased people's feelings about the arrival of immigrants.Conservative and populist thinkingOpportunity,A far-right party against immigrants.dominance in Europe.
〓 European far-right forces are on the rise.
Of course, more thanlocal peopleIf you have opinions,immigrant groupsThere are also problems in itself.
Immigrants themselves will "group together", while destination countries will always resettle immigrants together for ease of management, which leads toImmigrants are self-made。 Coupled with the lower socio-economic conditions of immigrants themselves, it will naturallyIsolation from mainstream society.
〓 Street traffickers of immigrants in Rome (Photo: WEB
And European immigrantsMore for Muslims.For a long time in history, Christianity with native Europe has been unacceptable.This conflict is still like a ghost now,From time to time, aggravate social tensions.
In addition, immigrant groups'Socioeconomic disadvantages and cultural conflictsIt further aggravates the resistance of immigrant groups to social integration, forming a vicious cycle.
〓 The unexpected death of a Muslim migrant boy in the suburbs of Paris in 2005 sparked twenty-day pan-francese riots.
In addition to the fact that the EU has been introducing population, Russia has also acted cautiously.As one of the countries with the highest number of casualties in World War II,The problem of Russian underpopulation has long existed.。In recent years, impacted by geoconflict and declining fertility, the problem of negative population growth in Russia has been highlighted.
The Russian Ministry of Labor estimates that the number of labor shortages may increase from the current 1.5 million to 2.4 million by 2030, and the Russian government is beginning to think about itIntroduction of foreign labor forceTo bridge the gap.
Earlier, the chairman of the Russian Ural Chamber of Commerce Andrei Betseddin said that Russia plans to do so by the end of 2025.Introduce up to 1 million Indian tech workers.However, the Russian Ministry of Labor said that the quota for foreign workers in 2025 is 235,000, of which 71,817 are Indian workers.
〓 As of 2023, 65% of Indian overseas workers worldwide work in Gulf Arab countries (Photo: Yitu.com)
North Koreans are also within Russia's consideration, and currentlyNorth Korean workers in RussiaThere has been a huge increase.
Russia has introduced a lot ofThe work of non-SlaviansforceIt also carries political risks,Increased domestic excretion.Russia is more cautious compared to the "technological life" formed by long-term practical testing by EU countries.
In the past, Europe(Specially in the developed regions of the European Union)Grasping the role of immigrants in population growth, avoiding drastic population shrinkage,Early in the morning, we ate the people’s cake.But after all, this cake can't be eaten often, and no amount of immigrants will run out.
Looking back at the beginning of the article, it is not hard to find that the law of "development is the best contraceptive" is still working, and the level of fertility is falling around the world, whether developed or backward, and the level of fertility of existing immigrants is not likely to reverse the upward trend,Europe’s future will inevitably fall into negative population growth.
When this time will come, see.How does EuropeContinuing balancing migration and the structural problems it bringsOh well .
reference
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