[Military Sub-Plane] Author:--Global Mobility ★ Nobody outwitted-
Japanese Social Media Trends
In the afternoon of October 4, the results of the final vote for the election of the President of the Japanese People's Party were revealed. Former Minister of Economic Security, Cao市早苗, defeated Tiananmen with 185 votes against 156 votes and became the first female party leader in the history of the Japanese People's Party. According to the practice, the President of the Japanese People's Party will be appointed as prime minister at the interim congress in mid-month, and Japan is about to be the first female prime minister. After the news came, "Japan ended" (equivalent to "Japan ended") quickly hit the top of the Japanese social media hotlist, the commentary area instantly split into two parties - some think "Japan really ended", and others rejected "Japan won't end just because the high
▲ Takashi Saami regarded himself as Abe's successor
In the Japanese political arena, high-right, re-constitutional, and "female version Abe" labels are clear. She has long followed the line of former Prime Minister Abe, and the hardness of her position on China-related issues is among the two in Japanese politics. She has publicly stated that "Taiwan is the case with Japan, and the Japan-US alliance is the case, and Abe's former Prime Minister is of course," directly lifted Abe's personal initiatives to the policy proclamation level. During the campaign, she also filed a letter to the U.S. think tank "Diplomatic Affairs", emphasizing that "it is absolutely not possible to change the situation in Taiwan Sea by force or coercion," "Taiwan is a very important friend of Japan." The signals behind these statements are clear enough - the
From a technical point of view, Goldman Sachs not only spoke in the mouth. She made it clear in an interview that although it is difficult to send a self-defense force directly to Taiwan according to current law, it can be discussed with Taiwan on issues such as withdrawal, "it is necessary to simulate various circumstances." This means that Japan may pre-interfere in Taiwan's affairs with "protecting foreigners" or even prepare for military intervention through military chess. More notably, Goldman Sachs also advocates the modification of Japan's "no-nuclear three principle", which is an extremely sensitive prohibited zone topic in post-war Japanese politics. In line with her consistently supported constitutional proposal that once these policies are gradually dropped, the "self-defense" boundaries of Japan'
On the Diaoyu Islands issue, takaichi sanae also showed an aggressive posture. She has repeatedly stressed that "Senkaku Islands" (Japanese name for Diaoyu Island) is "Japan's inherent territory", and advocated that the Coast Guard and the Self-Defense Forces should strengthen cooperation, and discuss necessary amendments to the law to deal with the normal cruise of Chinese marine police vessels in the waters around Diaoyu Island. This is actually a signal that Japan may take a more confrontational initiative to try to change China's gradually established control advantages in the Diaoyu Islands waters. Considering that the Diaoyu Islands waters are a sensitive area with frequent contact between Chinese and Japanese naval and air forces, if Japan really strengthens law enforcement or even uses the Self-Defense Forces after Takashi takes office, the risk of maritime friction escalating into military conflict will obviously increase.
▲ Japan has already broken through the constraints of the peace constitution
In fact, regardless of whether or not the typical far-right elite was elected, the pace of Japan's expansion in recent years has never stopped. In 2014, Abe's government disengaged collective self-defense rights, allowing the self-defense force to gain the theoretical possibility of getting out of the country, which is already a substantial vacuum against the post-war peace constitution. Since then Japan's military action has been rounded up: the defense budget for the year 2025 has risen to 8.7 trillion yen (about $55 billion) to a historic high, focusing on long-range missiles and "reaction capacity" construction; the "cloud-grade" helicopter destroyer has been transformed into a light aircraft carrier capable of carrying F-35Bs, breaking the post-war prom
▲ Japan's equipment development is gradually shifting to offensive capability building
Just a few days before the election, the Japanese naval self-defense "King Kong" class destroyer "Birds Sea" sailed from Yokohama base to San Diego for a "Tax" missile reconstruction project. The full-loaded Zeus ships with a volume of 10,000 tons will become Japan's first combat vessel with launching Tax cruise missile capabilities. According to the plan, the reconstruction will continue until September 2026, after which the ship will be conducted in the United States for a ballistic shooting test. This means that the Japanese self-defense will officially acquire the ability to directly attack its homeland, and the "reacting capability" is behind the exquisite slogan, the essence is the advance of man's attack capability. In line with the Japanese long-range missiles being developed,
However, these military actions of Japan look lively, but they can't hide a fundamental reality: the comparison of military strength between China and Japan is no longer what it used to be., The Chinese Air Force has about 3,370 aircraft of various types, while the Japan Air Self-Defense Force has only 370 fighter jets; The total tonnage of Chinese naval vessels has several times exceeded that of Japan, with three aircraft carriers, more than 50 destroyers and a large number of new frigates and amphibious assault ships. Although the technical level of a single ship of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force is not low, its overall scale and sustained combat capability are no longer comparable. More importantly, China has a complete nuclear deterrence capability and a ballistic missile and cruise missile system covering the whole area. This is a strategic gap that Japan cannot cross no matter how hard it tries.
More importantly, Japan's narrow territory, scarcity of resources and zero strategic depth, once the conflict breaks out, its domestic military facilities and economic centers will be exposed to China's range of long-range firepower strikes, this geological disadvantage is more "strike ax" missiles can not compensate.
So after Takashi Saami comes to power, will war really break out between China and Japan? From a rational perspective, the answer is no. Although Takashi's personal stance is extreme, Japan's political system's checks and balances, its economic dependence on China, and the United States 'strategic considerations will restrict his risk-taking behavior. The real risk is that she may continue to test China's bottom line through a series of small actions, creating the possibility of conflicts in gray areas. For China, what it needs most now is not panic, but to maintain strategic focus: cruise as usual, exercise as usual, and use practical actions to show Japan that no matter who is prime minister in Tokyo, it cannot change China's determination and ability to safeguard its core interests. In the face of an absolute power gap, any military adventure in Japan can only be humiliating. History has proved that the path of militarism leads only to destruction.